Inside the latest twists in a Premier League title race defined by volatility | OneFootball

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As opposition coaches analyse Manchester City, they believe they have seen something shift. It may even fit with the volatility of the Premier League right now.

Put simply – and unlike for much of the last decade – if you can stay in a game with City, you now have a chance. The team of two years ago would, after all, probably have blown that Tottenham Hotspur side away in the first half.

The bare statistics are telling enough. In first halves of Premier League games this season, City have scored 27 goals and conceded six. In second halves, they have scored 22 and conceded 16. Sunday’s 2–2 draw at Spurs was the third time in 2026 alone that they have led a league match and failed to win – from just six Premier League games.

That is not the all-powerful force the competition has grown accustomed to. Newcastle United may therefore feel a flicker of hope ahead of this week’s Carabao Cup semi-final second leg, despite trailing 1–0.

The numbers only tell part of the story, though. For opposition coaches, the underlying cause lies in the “unseen” game discussed in this newsletter two weeks ago – something that was flagged with City much earlier in the season. It is the pressing system.

In admirably trying to keep his tactical ideology fresh through the appointment of different assistants, Guardiola may have ensured his side are now undergoing a longer period of adaptation than anticipated.

Former Jürgen Klopp assistant Pep Lijnders has introduced a more intensive approach, involving a far more vertical game. At times, that allows City to resemble the City of old, producing intimidating bursts, particularly at the start of matches.

The issue is that the squad remains largely built for a steadier, possession-based style, creating a disconnect. By the second half – as Chelsea discovered in the 1–1 draw at the start of the year – City simply do not press with the same intensity. Gaps begin to appear.

It may yet prove an influential factor in deciding this season’s major positions – if it were not for the Premier League itself being so changeable. Just consider the last week alone.

Arsenal have gone from enduring what felt like a potentially definitive meltdown to apparently having the title secured again, opening up a six-point lead once more. All within six days. Nobody at London Colney believes anything is won, of course. That message carries even more weight for Arteta after a key point he made on Monday: when the squad felt it was in a “pressure bubble”, the reminder was that nothing is won yet – so you cannot actually have lost anything.

Their 4–0 win over Leeds United was crucial in restoring a sense of purpose that had only dipped a few weeks earlier; that vital balance of mindset Arteta believes is essential to winning. You want edge, but not so much that it tips into panic. Hence the methodical nature of the approach that led to 2–0, before they finally began to enjoy themselves – just as Arteta had implored – in the second half.

Arteta is keen to re-establish that spirit properly. Just as relevant in the context of the league’s volatility, this was only the sixth win of the 2025–26 season by a margin of four or more goals. Two of those six have been Arsenal victories against Leeds United.

Their 3–2 Carabao Cup semi-final first-leg lead over Chelsea may prove just as significant for the campaign’s momentum. Next comes a relatively forgiving home fixture against Sunderland, who have a dismal record in London, the day before Manchester City travel to Liverpool.

The title race is already developing a familiar back-and-forth rhythm. A problem for City is how Liverpool have very suddenly begun to feel resurgent.

They still have clear defensive issues, but scoring 10 goals in two games does wonders for belief – and for removing a previously inhibiting doubt.

There has been change there, too. Florian Wirtz has clearly started to adapt, while Hugo Ekitike is developing at the striking rate that made him the most valued forward of the summer window outside Alexander Isak. The smoothness of his movement, already likened to a peak Fernando Torres, has been much noted.

That could be key over the medium term. In a season dominated by pressing systems and set-pieces – or, in the modern nomenclature, solutions from “restarts” – Liverpool are finally seeing the influence of individual inspiration they calculated could prove a crucial differentiator.

How Aston Villa could do with that spark now. Every time they look capable of achieving something more, they seem to be checked back. The performance in the 1–0 home defeat to Brentford was not as poor as against Everton, but that arguably made it more exasperating.

This is not really something they should be criticised for. Villa have been drastically overperforming to sit third, and that description would still apply even if they finished in the top five.

The frustration lies in the promise of more.

The concern now is the gap beginning to close.

Liverpool’s meeting with City will reveal plenty. Manchester United, meanwhile, suddenly look as though they are enjoying a release, the players genuinely having fun. The experiment of Ruben Amorim obstinately placing players in unfamiliar positions now feels all the more bizarre. Or, as senior figures in the hierarchy said to each other just before deciding to sack him: “What exactly are we doing here?”

That is without European football, too, meaning United should be fresh for every game. Then there was the nature of Benjamin Sesko’s stoppage-time winner against Fulham and everything around it, including what it could do for the striker’s confidence. Chelsea enjoyed something similar against West Ham United, at a crucial formative stage of Liam Rosenior’s tenure.

There is already debate about Carrick’s future.

Like so much in the Premier League right now, everything has changed. At least for this week.

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