🇮🇹 Italy’s World Cup hopes hang on play-offs: possible rivals 👀 | OneFootball

Italy’s win over Estonia kept a faint World Cup hope alive: Gattuso’s Azzurri are now 6 points behind Norway, but with one game in hand and 9 points still up for grabs.

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The dream of qualifying directly — avoiding the dreaded playoffs — isn’t over yet, although it will take a true sporting miracle.

⚽ The tight race: Italy versus Haaland & co.

On Saturday, October 11, both Italy and Norway won: the Scandinavians thrashed Israel 5-0, while Gattuso’s men beat Estonia 3-1 in Tallinn.

The standings show Norway first, +6, but with one extra match. Essentially, the Azzurri must win all remaining games (Israel, Moldova, and Norway) to hope for a miracle.

📊 Level on points? The goal-difference risk

If Italy and Norway finish the group level on points, the first tiebreaker would be goal difference, which currently clearly favors the Scandinavians:

This means that even by winning the head-to-head at San Siro, the Azzurri would need big wins to close the gap. Otherwise, it’s straight to the playoffs, the most likely scenario.

🙏 A miracle called Estonia

The only way to secure direct qualification? Hope that Norway slips up against Estonia.

If the Estonians manage even a draw in Oslo, Italy — by beating Israel and Moldova — would reach the November 16 showdown with the chance to overtake Haaland and company. A remote hypothesis, but not impossible: football history is full of upsets.

💥 The final battle at San Siro

If the pieces fall into place, Italy–Norway on November 16 would become a true early final. At stake not only top spot in the group, but a direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup.

San Siro is gearing up to become a cauldron, with Gattuso’s boys called to write a new page of history.

🧩 Plan B: the dreaded playoffs

In the more realistic case, Italy will have to face the March 2026 playoffs, together with the runners-up and the best excluded Nations League teams. Thanks to their FIFA ranking, the Azzurri would play the semifinal at home, but the final would be decided by a draw.

Among the possible opponents stand out: 🇬🇧 Scotland, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇧🇦 Bosnia, 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇮🇪 Northern Ireland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇽🇰 Kosovo

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.

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