Jones Knows Notebook: Newcastle are average away from home - it's becoming a problem | OneFootball

English Premier League

In his latest Notebook column, Lewis Jones digs into Newcastle's poor away form and why it's becoming a big problem for Eddie Howe to solve...

Being able to stay unemotional in the battle against the bookmakers is something all us punters are battling on a weekly basis. Our pockets can talk loudly sometimes. And we all can be guilty of making knee-jerk reactions regarding bets that have gone completely against our rationale. "I'm never trusting that lot again," we rage.

This was my initial reaction to Newcastle's rather timid performance at West Ham. My money was on the Toon, who went off around the 1.6 mark at the London Stadium and boy did they flatter to deceive against a previously winless West Ham at home. Despite chasing the game for an entire half, they didn't muster a second half shot on target until the 90th minute to a backdrop of a total expected goals tally of 0.42.

The lack of intensity and attacking threat felt very un-Newcastle-like and Eddie Howe admitted he thought the same afterwards. "Unrecognisable," was his verdict.

Just a one-off then, I thought.

But having looked a little deeper, these underwhelming displays and results away from St James' Park are an issue under Howe.

Away form is holding Newcastle back

At home Newcastle feel empowered - they press, they go at you and they look expansive and confident.

On the road it's different. They're more cautious and Howe has struggled to find a formula that allows them to flourish away from the magic of St James' Park.

The defeat at West Ham means Newcastle are now eight league games without a win on the road stretching across the summer. Jacob Murphy's strike on Sunday was also just their fourth goal scored across those eight matches.

There is a trend developing when it comes to Howe's team and balancing European commitments.

Looking back at the season where Howe oversaw a Champions League campaign in 23/24, the league form away from home also suffered in the first half of the season when the workload increased. During that period, Newcastle won just one of their first 10 Premier League games of that season, which was, incredibly, an 8-0 win over Sheffield United.

In their 46 away games in the Premier League since the start of the 23/24 season, the Toon have won just 14 games - the same as West Ham, Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace.

And their record away against Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea in that period makes for worrying reading too. Should a team winning cups and qualifying for the Champions League really be taking zero points from last the 24 available against those teams? You'd expect more.

Newcastle are far more trustworthy at home and when fully focused on the league. On the road, especially with the extra fixture load and tactical predictability of Howe, they're a team to take on when priced up favourably by the market. So, next weekend at Brentford? Proceed with caution.

Looking ahead: Brentford are a great bet on Sunday

The Bees will be physically fresh, motivated and, crucially, playing at home. Newcastle, by contrast, face the dual burden of European midweek demands and maintaining consistency on the road.

The tactical blueprint that works at St James' Park or against certain teams may not hold up at Brentford.

Given the combination of factors above, the early prices about Brentford are very appealing.

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