Liverpool vs Sunderland: Where the Game Will Be Won | OneFootball

Liverpool wouldn’t have been blamed for seeking a soft home fixture after their pulsating loss against Manchester City. Instead, they have been handed a midweek away fixture against the Premier League’s surprise package, or not so surprise package anymore… Sunderland. 

The Black Cats are a statistical anomaly. They are the third-worst team in the league for chance creation and rank only 12th defensively. On paper, that profile suggests a side flirting with relegation. Régis Le Bris’ team are knocking on the door of the European places.

We will explore this further in the tactical section, but Sunderland’s success has been built on a clear understanding that football is not about passive domination over long periods, but about owning key moments. It is an area where Arne Slot’s Liverpool have increasingly struggled this season.

FORM

After a stuttering start to the season that left Slot under unprecedented scrutiny for a reigning league champion, Liverpool’s results began to stabilise post December. The key adjustment was their off the ball structure; a more compact off-the-ball shape, flooding the midfield and even marginalising Mohamed Salah. Whilst this didn’t lead to a huge number of victories, it did mean Liverpool were ‘harder to beat’.

Perception is a fool’s game however because in the space of 3 games, Slot’s mini revival has gone up in smoke. An unbeaten run of 4 wins and 6 draws, prior to the loss against Bournemouth now looks like 4 draws, 1 win, and 2 losses in the last 7 games – a team that is struggling to win games. Seeing as 4 of those were at home, two of those against relegation teams – it is not a good look. This is no longer a blip. It is a pattern.

Sunderland’s form reads similarly (L, W, L, W, L) but context matters. Heavy defeats to Arsenal and Brentford have exposed them at times, yet convincing home wins against Burnley and Crystal Palace underline why they remain a difficult opponent, particularly at the Stadium of Light.

PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER

The last time the teams faced each other was another midweek game in December at Anfield where the wide consensus is that Liverpool struggled despite winning on many metrics.  One key metric they were beaten on was distance covered and it feeds into the narrative that Liverpool were outran and outhustled.

Trai Hume came agonisingly close to opening the scoring with a thunderous effort tipped onto the bar by Alisson. Man of the Match Granit Xhaka was highly influential making 82% of his passes, with 17 of those in the opposition half, further proof that Sunderland were not here to survive but to compete.

This fearless approach was finally rewarded on the 67th minute when Sunderland won the ball high up the pitch and Moroccan winger Chemsdine Talbi unleashed a ferocious strike from range to put the visitors ahead. 

Going behind stirred Liverpool into life and the first sign of Wirtz’s elite capabilities came to the fore when he went on a slaloming run inside the box and scored a deflected goal which wound up being given as an own goal. Ultimately even with Liverpool threatening a late rally to take all three points, Sunderland held firm via the nerveless Robin Roefs.

Remarkably, it was Sunderland who left disappointed. Deep into stoppage time, the galloping Isidor ran clear and rounded Alisson, looking certain to score, only to find Slot’s reluctant substitute, Federico Chiesa… scrambling to clear the ball off the line.

TEAM NEWS

Sunderland confront a genuine crisis in midfield. Two of the league’s hardest-working midfielders, Granit Xhaka and Noah Sadiki are both out which leaves Enzo Le Fee and Geertruida as the most likely central options. 

The Dutchman can invert into midfield as seen during his time at Feyenoord under Arne Slot, but that is a vastly different proposition than being deployed their full time and having to demonstrate more positional discipline on and off the ball.

Further forward, Bertrand Traore also out of the picture, it means Sunderland are likely to utilise Trai Hume and Talbi on the wings. That should offer Liverpool little comfort as both of them played against Liverpool last time and caused problems against the experienced pair of Joe Gomez and Andy Robertson.

Which is concerning as Liverpool have no available right backs after Dominik Szoboszlai got himself controversially sent off in his lung busting tussle against Haaland. It seems Slot may have to resort to using Curtis Jones there, a player who despite having an excellent season has not seen much game time recently with rumours of a falling out behind the scenes.

TACTICAL STRATEGY AND KEY BATTLES

With their midfield weakened, Sunderland are likely to double down on what they do best: remaining compact, combative, and selective. They will aim to lull Liverpool into a false sense of control before bursting forward, particularly through the aggressive running of Brian Brobbey.

Likely starting formations for both sides. Source: Author

One roadblock they may have is that Konate seems to be in good form and if Jones was to invert and be caught centrally when the space is out wide, it may not be as easy a route to goal it was early in the season.

On a more positive note, their record signing Habib Diarra is now feeling his way into the side after AFCON and boy does he look a prospect. Long, rangy with fast feet and agility, he looks the complete premier league package, and he will surely fancy himself if he finds himself in a foot race against the increasingly pedestrian Alexis Mac Allister.

Diarra & Talbi should trouble Mac Allister. Source: Author

WATCH THOSE FLANKS

On the flanks, Salah versus Reinildo is another fascinating duel. The Egyptian is no longer the devastating runner he once was, but from wider starting positions he remains effective as a facilitator. Against Newcastle, hugging the touchline allowed his passing to dictate play. That may embolden Reinildo to advance more aggressively, safe in the knowledge that Salah’s threat in behind has diminished.

Salah vs. Reinildo. Source: Author

Last time out a lethargic Alexander Isak faced Sunderland’s rather intense backline. This time they will have their work cut out for them in the vibrant Ekitiké. Upon closer inspection however, Ekitiké form is patchier than you’d think. Outside of the performance against Newcastle, he hasn’t really been dominating opponents like the media had us believe. In fact, Liverpool’s most in form threat is the much-maligned Cody Gakpo.

CONCLUSION

Ultimately, this will be a game decided by moments.

For Sunderland, success in open play rests in their ability to expose Liverpool’s midfield and their right flank. Periodically inducing panic in Liverpool with a smartly timed press or countering will be key.

For Liverpool, subduing the likes of Diarra and Talbi in front of a raucous home crowd is going to be no easy feat especially after the mentally exhausting loss against Manchester City.  Liverpool have now conceded four 90th-minute winners in league matches this season – the joint-most by a team in a single Premier League campaign after Watford in 2017-18, West Ham in 2021-22, Watford again in 2021-22, and Southampton in 2024-25. 

From a physical perspective, this is a team that lacks the engine of Klopp’s heavy metal era. City covered 7km more than them. That deficit in intensity is a running theme this season, mind the pun.

Whilst Liverpool have more at stake, urgency does not automatically translate into effort. Sunderland, safe and unburdened by expectation, may yet prove the more willing runners. And if Slot fails here, the noise surrounding Xabi Alonso – already growing – will only get louder.