Manchester United’s struggles mask signs of progress under Ruben Amorim | OneFootball

At first glance, Ruben Amorim’s start at Manchester United looks bleak. Just two Premier League wins since April, an anaemic return of eight points from their last ten matches, and a side that continues to leak soft goals while misfiring at the other end. For many, it is the same old story: a United team promising evolution but delivering stagnation. Having spent over £200m on the likes of Benjamin Sesko, Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo, fans would have been hoping for better results than they have had. However, peel back the results and the numbers tell a more complex, and perhaps more optimistic, story.

Over their last ten games, only Tottenham have earned fewer points than United. But in that same period, Amorim’s side have attempted more shots than any team in the division and conceded fewer than all other teams in the Premier League bar Manchester City. The paradox is glaring: United are creating, they are restricting, yet they are still falling short.

Wastefulness in both boxes costs United dear

As Chris Collinson at BBC Sport has illustrated, the issue lies squarely in both boxes. According to expected goals (xG), United should have scored seven more goals than they have and conceded four fewer. Wastefulness in attack and lapses in goalkeeping have undone what the underlying play suggests should be a far more productive run. United are playing well enough to win more games, but their efficiency lags far behind.

Some of the responsibility for this falls on the players. A frontline that struggles to finish chances and a goalkeeper who allows too many goals beyond xG predictions are obvious concerns; United will be hoping that the recent signing of goalkeeper Senne Lammens from Royal Antwerp will alleviate some of these issues. But Amorim is not absolved. His system has so far encouraged low-quality efforts in attack while leaving his defence vulnerable to high-quality chances. That imbalance between volume and value of chances remains a tactical flaw that he must address.

Underlying numbers point to a brighter future

Still, the longer-term signs suggest progress. Since March, they have consistently out-created opponents in both quantity and quality of chances. Results may not yet reflect that upward trajectory, but in football, performance metrics are often a better predictor of future outcomes than raw scorelines.

History offers encouragement. Teams that consistently generate more and better chances than their opponents tend to succeed over time. Inefficiency in front of goal rarely persists indefinitely, nor does conceding from every defensive lapse, and if United maintain their current levels of chance creation and suppression, results should begin to turn.

Amorim’s tenure has not sparked the immediate renaissance many supporters hoped for when he replaced Erik ten Hag in December, but he needs to be given the time to turn things around. Beneath the surface, there is evidence of a team slowly moving in the right direction. United’s revival may be delayed, but if performances continue on this path, it might only be a matter of time before the points follow.

GFN | Finn Entwistle