Mapping Out Brazil’s Potential Route to 2026 World Cup Glory | OneFootball

If Brazil were to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, who would they have to beat? We’ve had a go at mapping out their potential route to the World Cup final on 19 July in New Jersey.

Brazil. A nation synonymous with the FIFA World Cup.

The South American giants are the most successful team both in terms of World Cup titles, winning football’s greatest prize a record five times, and for participations, with the Seleção the only team to have taken part in all 22 previous editions.

Despite their history as the competition’s greatest participant, the 2026 World Cup will mark 24 years since they earned their fifth star in Yokohama, Japan. Since then, Brazil have failed to make it past the quarter-final stage in four of the last five editions.

Now under the tutelage of footballing royalty and serial winner Carlo Ancelotti, Brazil are looking to reclaim their throne. With the help of the Opta Supercomputer, we look at how the Seleção could do exactly that.

Group StageGroup C vs Morocco, Haiti and Scotland

Brazil are in Group C alongside Morocco, Haiti and Scotland. They’ve been given a 60.8% chance of topping the group and a whopping 96.9% chance of making it to the last 32, with only Spain (98.6%) given a greater chance of progressing from their group than the Brazilians.

Brazil have topped their first-round group in every World Cup edition since 1982. Morocco may provide a stern test, but other than that, another progression shouldn’t be a concern for Ancelotti’s side.

Last 32 (96.9% chance of making it this far)Brazil vs Japan

Up next for Brazil could be Japan, the side who are most likely to finish second in Group F according to the Opta supercomputer (30.7%).

The Brazilians have been given a healthy 62.1% chance of progressing into the last 16 in the supercomputer’s pre-tournament simulations.

History is certainly in Brazil’s favour too, winning 11 of their 14 previous meetings with Samurai Blue (D2 L1), including six of their last seven. A potential cause for concern, though, is their only defeat against Japan came in their most recent meeting. They lost 3-2 in October 2025, despite leading 2-0 with just 30 minutes to go. 

Last 16 (62.1% chance of making it this far)Brazil v Norway

Norway, taking part in their first World Cup since 1998 and spearheaded by the goalscoring behemoth that is Erling Haaland, could be Brazil’s opponents in the next round.

This would be just the second ever meeting between the two nations, after Norway’s 2-1 win in the group stage at the 1998 World Cup. Back then, Brazil had already qualified as group winners with a game to spare, whereas victory was a must for Norway if they were to qualify for the knockout stages, something they managed before being eliminated by Italy in the next round.

The Seleção’s record in the last 16 at the World Cup is exemplary, progressing from nine of their 10 ties at this stage of the competition, including each of their last eight. They have also won both of their two previous matches in this round against European opposition, beating Poland 4-0 in 1986 and Belgium 2-0 in 2002.

Quarter-Finals (38.0% chance of making it this far)Brazil v England

With respect to Brazil’s opponents thus far, it’s at this point that things really get interesting for Ancelotti’s side.

To say this is a tough test would be an understatement. Standing between Brazil and their first semi-final since 2014 is an England side given an 11.4% chance of winning the entire tournament, with only Spain (16.5%) and France (12.8%) winning more often across the Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 pre-tournament simulations.

Brazil will feel they’ve nothing to fear, though, with history very much on their side. They’ve lost just one of their last 12 games against England (W5 D6) and are unbeaten in all four of their meetings at the men’s World Cup, winning each of their last three. The most recent of those was a 2-1 victory at this stage of the 2002 World Cup, thanks to an iconic goal from Ronaldinho, who floated the ball over a stranded David Seaman.

While England have improved on the international stage in recent years, finishing third at the 2018 World Cup before being runners-up in two consecutive UEFA European Championship tournaments (2020, 2024), their 60-year wait for a second World Cup dwarves Brazil’s current run of 24 years without lifting the trophy.

Semi-Finals (22.1% chance of making it this far)Brazil vs France

If they get past England, it won’t get much easier for Brazil. Up next would be two-time World Cup winners, France.

Didier Deschamps’ side have a 33.5% chance of reaching the semi-finals according to the Opta supercomputer, with only Spain (39.6%) given a higher chance of reaching the final four.

The two nations have previously met at four different World Cup tournaments, and this time history is firmly on the side of the French.

Brazil beat France 5-2 in the 1958 semi-final en route to winning their first ever World Cup, but since then have been eliminated in the quarter-finals on two occasions (1986 and 2006) to France, as well as being thumped 0-3 in the final of the 1998 edition.

France have a superb record at the semi-final stage, winning each of their last four (1998, 2006, 2018 and 2022), while they’ve kept a clean sheet in each of their last three.

Brazil, though, have only failed to progress to the World Cup final from one of their last seven semi-final ties. Specifically against European sides at this stage, they’ve made it to the final from four of their last five.What better way to exorcise the anguish of their last semi-final appearance, a humiliating 7-1 defeat to Germany in front of their own fans in 2014, than by defeating Les Bleus and progressing to the final.

Final (12.5% chance of making it this far)Brazil vs Spain

If Brazil make it to the World Cup final, their most likely showdown would come against Spain; the Opta supercomputer’s favourite to win the competition (16.5%).

Spain may be the current European champions, but their recent performances at the World Cup have left a lot to be desired. Their last three tournaments have resulted in a dismal group stage exit in 2014, followed by consecutive last-16 exits in Russia (2018) and Qatar (2022).

Brazil historically have had the upper hand on Spain, too, losing just two of their 10 meetings against them (W5 D3), while they’re unbeaten in each of their last four against them at the World Cup (W3 D1) – but all four of those have come in the group stage, an entirely different challenge.

Spain and Brazil would come into this potential clash looking to right the wrongs of disappointing World Cup campaigns in recent years but there can only be one winner.

Before a ball is kicked at the tournament, Brazil win the 2026 World Cup in just 6.7% of the Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 simulations – a lower chance than five other nations. Can Brazil finally end their 24-year wait and claim the Hexa, their sixth World Cup triumph? Only time will tell.

All prediction numbers correct as of 5 June 2026

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