Mapping Out France’s Potential Route to 2026 World Cup Glory | OneFootball

After losing the final on penalties at Qatar 2022, can France add to their two World Cup triumphs this summer? This is their likely route should they succeed.

Finalists at each of the last two World Cups, France simply have to be in the conversation when it comes to the potential winners of this summer’s tournament.

They have a squad stacked with talent all over the pitch, led by a manager with experience of winning this competition, and therefore have to be considered to have a good chance of repeating their success from 2018. After the heartbreak of a penalty-shootout defeat in Qatar four years ago, the French will hope to take this opportunity to add to their two World Cup titles.

The Opta supercomputer considers them second favourites to lift the trophy after Spain, and unless something goes catastrophically wrong, France should go deep in the tournament.

So, if they do go all the way, who will they have to get past? With the help of the supercomputer, we’ve mapped out France’s route to glory.

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Group StageGroup I vs Senegal, Iraq and Norway

According to our analysis of the relative strength of each group at the World Cup, France have been placed in this edition’s ‘group of death’.

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They won’t have it easy, up against Senegal (ranked 21st in the world in the Opta Power Rankings) and Norway (25th), who have goal machine Erling Haaland leading the line, while their final opponent, Iraq, showed they are no pushovers by drawing with Spain in a warm-up friendly this week.

But all that said, France are still the favourites to top Group I, and given a 60.2% chance of doing so by the Opta supercomputer.

If they do as the supercomputer expects, they will face one of the best third-placed teams in the round of 32.

Last 32 (94.9% chance of making it this far)France vs Sweden

The identity of France’s last-32 opponents will depend on the combination of groups from which the best third-placed teams come. And in 25,000 simulations of the World Cup by the Opta supercomputer, the most common combination is one that would leave France facing the third-placed side from Group F.

That just happens to be the fourth-strongest group at the tournament, and the side most likely to finish third in that group is Sweden, meaning a potential banana skin for the French in the round of 32.

In Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres, Sweden have plenty of goals in their ranks, and could pose a threat to anyone. France have won four of their last five games against Sweden, but the most recent meeting in a major tournament ended in a 2-0 win for Sweden at Euro 2012.

Last 16 (70.5% of making it this far)France vs Germany

The Opta supercomputer is backing France to storm into the round of 16, doing so in 70.5% of pre-tournament simulations. There, they will face the winner of Group E, and that is likely to mean a monster clash.

Four-time world champions Germany await, and France would need no reminding of their credentials in the competition.

France have won only one of their four World Cup meetings with Germany, and that came way back in 1958. Since then, Germany are unbeaten in three and won their most recent meeting, a 1-0 win in the quarter-final stage on their way to glory in 2014.

However, France are unbeaten in their five competitive games against the Germans since that defeat, including wins in the Euro 2016 semi-final and Euro 2020 group stage. They’ll hope to add another win here…

Quarter-Final (48.1% chance of making it this far)France vs Morocco

Should France make it to the last eight, they’ll face Morocco in a rematch of the 2022 World Cup semi-final, their only previous competitive meeting.

France won that game 2-0, bringing to an end a remarkable and unexpected run for Morocco that saw them knock out both Spain and Portugal. They are certainly no pushovers and would provide stern opposition here.

The French have a solid record this deep into tournaments, though, having progressed through each of their last four quarter-finals at major tournaments.

Semi-Final (33.5% chance of making it this far)France vs Spain

If France are to come unstuck, it might just be here. At the semi-final stage, if everything goes as the Opta supercomputer predicts, they will meet European champions and the supercomputer’s favourites to win the World Cup, Spain. France would therefore go into this tie as the outsiders.

France would hope to avoid a repeat of their most recent semi-final at a major tournament. Spain won that Euro 2024 semi 2-1 in Munich on their way to glory.

However, the French have incredible pedigree this deep into major tournaments. Before that loss to Spain, they had won their last six semi-finals in a row. Their only failure – against Czechia at Euro 96 – came on penalties.

These two sides have only ever met once before at a World Cup – a 3-1 win for France in the last 16 in 2006 – but Spain have dominated their semi-regular meetings outside of this competition in the years since, winning seven and drawing one of 10 encounters.

France would be up against it, but they shouldn’t be written off.

Final (21.0% chance of making it this far)France vs England

With favourites Spain safely dispatched, only England would stand in the way of glory for France. But the French have a mixed record in finals.

After winning each of their first three between 1984 and 2000, France’s 2018 triumph over Croatia is the only one of their last four finals at major tournaments that they have won. Two of their failures have come after penalty shootouts, though, with the Euro 2016 final the only time they have ever lost a final at a major tournament without the need for penalties.

They would hope to beat an England side who have not been able to get over the line despite their recent improvement, losing the final at both Euro 2020 and Euro 2024.

France also have a favourable record against the English, losing only one of their last nine meetings, and that was in a friendly at Wembley in November 2015. England haven’t beaten France in a competitive game since the 1982 World Cup.

Given they have made the last two finals, it would be no surprise to see France lining up in New Jersey on 19 July, nor is it fanciful to imagine that they might win the whole thing, even if they’d have to beat some very strong sides along the way.

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