Mexico v Ecuador: Prediction, team news, lineups and odds | OneFootball

After making a perfect start to the 2026 World Cup, co-hosts Mexico now welcome Ecuador to the Estadio Azteca in the round of 32.

El Tri beat South Africa, South Korea and the Czech Republic in the group stage, making them one of only three teams to amass maximum points.

Ecuador qualified as one of the third-best sides after a dramatic 2-1 win over Germany, and the winner of this tie will face England or DR Congo in the last 16.

Mexico v Ecuador kick-off time

Mexico v Ecuador kicks off at 2am BST (7pm local) on Wednesday, July 1 at the Estadio Azteca.

Mexico v Ecuador how to watch

The game will be shown live in the UK on ITV1, with coverage starting at 1.15am.

BBC Radio 5 Live and talkSPORT will both provide full match commentary.

Mexico team news

Having won their group after just two games, Mexico made a number of changes for their final group game against the Czech Republic.

Seventeen-year-old Gilberto Mora became the youngest Mexico player ever to start a World Cup match, while Mateo Chavez and Guillermo Martinez also made their first starts of the tournament.

But left-back Jesus Gallardo, midfielder Brian Gutierrez and striker Raul Jimenez are all expected to reclaim their place in the starting line-up.

Erik Lira should also replace Edson Alvarez at the base of midfield after remaining on the bench against the Czech Republic.

Mexico have no injury concerns for this game, allowing Javier Aguirre to select his strongest starting line-up.

Ecuador team news

Alongside Mexico, Ecuador also go into this round of 32 tie with a fully fit squad.

Chelsea midfielder Moises Caicedo will lead the Ecuador team as captain after Enner Valencia made the shock decision to step down from the role mid-tournament.

Valencia is still expected to start in a front two alongside Gonzalo Plata, who netted the winning goal against Germany.

In defence, Ecuador have Arsenal’s Piero Hincapie at left-back and Paris Saint-Germain’s Willian Pacho at centre-back.

Mexico v Ecuador odds

Mexico are 13/10 favourites to win in 90 minutes and move into the last 16. Ecuador are 16/5 while The Draw is 5/2.

In the ‘To Qualify’ market which also brings extra-time and penalties into play, Mexico are 3/5 to go through. Ecuador are 31/20 to advance.

In the outright market, both teams are way down the betting with Mexico 66/1 and Ecuador 150/1.

Mexico v Ecuador prediction

This game has all the hallmarks of a low-scoring affair, as both sides are renowned for their strong defensive work.

Mexico have kept three successive clean sheets at this World Cup and conceded just two goals across their previous eight games in 2026.

Ecuador haven’t conceded multiple goals in a game since June 2024, and reached this World Cup after letting in just five goals across their 18 qualifying matches.

But Mexico netted six goals in the group stage and do possess more firepower than their opponents. Of all the teams that reached the last 32, Ecuador were the joint-lowest scorers in the group stage with just two goals.

Playing on home turf is also a huge advantage for Mexico, who are unbeaten in nine World Cup matches at the Estadio Azteca. That all leads us to back Mexico to win to nil at 23/10.

Five of Mexico’s six goals at this World Cup have come in the second half, so we’re also looking at Draw-Mexico in the Half-Time Full-Time market at 17/4.

Raul Jimenez is fully rested, and his prowess in front of goal could prove to be the difference between the two sides. He’s 5/2 to score anytime.