More centrality, more profligacy: How Leao’s role has changed and the key aspect to improve

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·2 Desember 2024

More centrality, more profligacy: How Leao’s role has changed and the key aspect to improve

Over the course of the past few months, there has been a succession of judgements on the way Paulo Fonseca has managed (or not managed) AC Milan star Rafael Leao. But what if everything was easier?

Firstly, there was the fact that – unlike in other years – Leao was asked to track back more in defence. Then came the decision not to put him in the starting line-up for three consecutive games in the league, including one against Napoli.

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All of these decisions are questionable for the fans, but not for Fonseca. The head coach is accused of not putting the winger in the right conditions to do well. Now, several months into the season, it is time to take a look at the numbers of Leao’s campaign so far and try to shed some light.

Unlike the tortuous past few months, the relationship between Fonseca and the Rossoneri’s number 10 now seems to be calm, with the Portuguese at the centre of the plans and with less defensive responsibility than his team-mates.

It is a choice on the coach’s part that is not necessarily conditioned by criticism, but here again the numbers come to the rescue.

Never so dangerous

In fact, in the six years that he has worn the red and black shirt, Leao has never produced so many scoring chances: 0.49 Expected Goals, significantly higher than the average of previous years (0.32).

This figure alone highlights how much the winger plays in a position that enhances his strengths, a hypothesis that becomes proven with the addition of other indicators.

Leao also has the highest number of shots – and more importantly shots on target – per match since he has been in Italy (3.52 and 1.65). It presents a sign of how his level of threat has increased this season compared to the past (1.02 average shots on target).

But that’s not all, the average quality of shots taken by Leao this season is also the highest since he has worn the Milan shirt (0.15 xG per shot). This means that Rafa with Fonseca creates more, shoots more and shoots better.

The reason – provided to us by match analyst Nicolas Cariglia on Instagram – is that under Fonseca the forward plays more central and much closer to the penalty area than under the previous head coach Stefano Pioli.

Proof of this is the statistic that takes into account the touches made by the Portuguese inside the opponent’s box, which has never been so high: 6.81 per 90.

Leao’s big problem

Thus, one wonders why – if Leao’s numbers are on the up – he has only scored four goals in 17 games across all competitions. Again, to make a certain judgement, the data needs to be contextualised.

The figure for the ratio of shots that turn into goals is in fact the lowest ever for the former Lille man who – while shooting with higher accuracy than in the past – also makes far more mistakes.

Overall, for Rafa to score a goal he has to shoot around 11 times (10.7 shots per goal), almost twice as many as the top players in his role, namely Mo Salah (5.3) and Vinicius (6). From these figures, we can see that Leao’s problem is perhaps staring back at him in the mirror.

The 25-year-old has never had top numbers since his time at Milan in terms of his ability to finish, or at least do so consistently, a problem that is also repeated with Fonseca.

Unlike in the past, however, Leao now plays in a more central and attacking role. It is a condition that could have benefited him and Milan, if only he improved his prolificacy in front of goal.

The reality of the numbers though shows how he has failed to grasp the opportunity given to him by Fonseca, remaining anchored to the same old problems.

However much Fonseca may have worked on it, it is up to Leao to improve in that aspect. He may not have to go too far from Milanello though because there is another star player who has been there: Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

Zlatan’s precedent

As revealed by Fabio Capello, Ibra’s coach in his Juventus days, when he arrived in Italy the Swede did not know how to score or at least how to be prolific in front of goal.

Ibrahimovic also confirmed how from his first sessions at Juventus, Capello immediately assigned him a goalkeeper to train shooting with. These endless individual sessions saw him exponentially improve in front of goal, making him an elite striker.

Often when judging football, we get lost in futile and contrived numbers, forgetting that – as Max Allegri teaches – it is still an ‘easy game’ in terms of concepts.

So if the problem for a forward is that they are not scoring goals, instead of pointing the finger at formations, schemes and coaches it is sometimes enough to put him in front of a net, a goalkeeper and let him shoot. Only then will we truly see the real truth, and everyone needs a goal-scoring Leao.