Nations League Final preview: an international derby | OneFootball

Spain have reached a third consecutive international final and the odds are surely in their favour, but Portugal will be eager to right the wrongs of the past.

Spain’s international dominance

Spain looked in good shape ahead of the last edition of the FIFA World Cup. However, Japan topped their group and Morocco stunned the 2010 winners in the last 16 on penalties, causing Luis Enrique to be sacked as manager.

Since then, it has been a very different story. Luis de la Fuente was appointed as their new head coach and he soon brought success back to the side, winning the 2023 UEFA Nations League. A year later, Spain looked far and away the best team at Euro 2024 and won the competition after beating England 2-1 in the final, thanks to a late Mikel Oyarzabal goal.

The Spanish success story has continued, as they have reached yet another final. Now, the only thing which stands in the way of a third successive trophy is Portugal.

Head-to-head

Spain’s recent dominance is not the only reason Portugal should be concerned. It has been 21 years since Portugal last defeated Spain in a major tournament and 15 years including international friendlies.

However, many of the matches since have ended in draws and when Spain have won, it has only been either on penalties, or by a one-goal margin.

The sides have not met since 2022 in the Nations League group stage. There was nothing to separate the sides in Seville, but Spain won away from home in the most recent fixture between the rivals, with Alvaro Morata scoring after 88 minutes.

The tournament so far

Portugal and Spain both comfortably topped their groups, with the former registering four wins and two draws and the latter winning five games and drawing one.

Spain have since gone on to be unbeaten, although they required a penalty shootout to get past the Netherlands in the quarter-finals and almost blew a four-goal lead against France in the semis.

Portugal on the other hand suffered a defeat to Denmark in the quarter-final. However, a 5-2 thrashing saw them through to the semi-final, where Roberto Martinez’s men battled past Germany in Munich.

Key statistics

The stats indicate Spain are better in attack, while Portugal have the edge in defense. Spain have scored three more goals than Portugal during the tournament, but have conceded four more. However, they have kept three clean sheets, while their upcoming opponents have only achieved one.

Spain average more goals, shots on target and big chances per game. As well as this, Portugal average more big chances missed. But on the defensive front, Portugal only average one goal conceded per game, compared with Spain’s 1.4, while Portugal make more tackles and concede fewer penalties.

Spain lead the way on both expected goals and expected goals against, with figures of 2.08 and 1.32 respectively. Portugal’s xG figure is 1.84 and their xGA is 1.41.

The Nations League final

The key information suggests a Spain victory is likely on Sunday. Recent history, the tournament so far and the head-to-head record between the teams all point to Spain clinching a third consecutive trophy. However, it is likely to be a closely contested battle.

Portugal may not have been favorites to reach the final, so they will be determined to defy the odds once more and go all the way.

It would be unsurprising if extra time and even penalties are needed to decide a winner. Spain often leave it late, but like Real Madrid in a couple of recent Champions League campaigns, they always seem to find a way to get the win.

Can Portugal finally defeat Spain, or is it going to be yet another La Roja victory? Only time will tell!