Opta Predicts Aston Villa v Arsenal: Back league leaders in 13/1 Bet Builder on Saturday | OneFootball

Aston Villa v ArsenalSaturday, 12:30Live on TNT Sports

After wobbling in last weekend's draw with Chelsea, Arsenal ensured Manchester City did not eat further into their lead at the top of the Premier League table in midweek.

A routine 2-0 victory over Brentford restored the Gunners' five-point advantage at the summit, but they face a difficult test of their credentials next time out.

Arsenal's closest title tilt under Mikel Arteta, in 2023/24, came unstuck in part due to home and away defeats to Aston Villa, whose supporters may not see Arsenal as uncatchable.

Indeed, Villa are just six points adrift of the leaders following a thrilling 4-3 win over Brighton and Hove Albion on Wednesday, and Unai Emery will know a victory over his former club could blow the title race wide open.

Ahead of Saturday's early kick-off, we have looked at the Opta data and picked out our favourite Bet Builder selections.

Arsenal backed to overcome stern test

Arsenal are favourites for victory on the sportsbook, at a price of 4/5 for victory with Betfair's 90 Minute Guarantee.

Villa are 3/1 to upset the Gunners, as they did home and away in the 2023/24 season, while it is 21/10 for the points to be shared. Villa are 5/6 to avoid defeat on the Double Chance market.

The Opta supercomputer also favours Arteta's side, who are given a 46.6% win probability. Villa's hopes of victory are rated at 28.9%, with the likelihood of a draw at 24.5%.

Arteta's side have won 10 Premier League games this season, with eight of those victories coming to nil (80%) - it is their highest percentage of wins to nil in any campaign in the competition.

Arsenal are 2/1 for another shutout victory, with Villa 6/1 to achieve the same feat. However, after starting the season with no goals in their first four matches, Villa have only failed to score once in 16 outings across all competitions - in a 2-0 loss at Liverpool.

But a goal fest should not necessarily be expected, even if Villa edged a thriller at the Amex Stadium last time out. Five of Arsenal's last nine games have contained under 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in just three of their last 13.

It is 3/4 for a maximum of two goals to be scored at Villa Park, but over 2.5 goals is available at 1/1 - that has been a winning bet in four of Villa's last eight games.

It is 9/10 for both teams to score, though that has only occurred three times in Villa's last eight matches.

With the data suggesting a mixed picture for the goal markets, punters may be more inclined to get behind the Premier League leaders at a decent price.

Villa Park has a reputation for being a difficult place for the top teams to go, with Man City slipping up there as recently as October.

But the underlying data suggests Villa are fortunate to find themselves in the Champions League places 14 games into the season.

Arsenal lead the way not only in the actual standings, but also in Opta's expected points table, with 30.9 xpts. The same model has Villa 16th in the Premier League, with 15.0 xpts - remarkably, that's less than Wolves (15.2).

Villa have also massively overperformed their underlying expected goals figures, netting 20 times from chances with a total xG value of 14.3. They have averaged 0.09 xG per shot this term, with no Premier League team recording a lower figure.

Emery's team have defied the data partly due to their deadly accuracy from long distance - they have scored nine goals from outside the area this campaign, the most both overall and as a percentage of their total goals (45%) in the Premier League.

While all four of Villa's goals against Brighton came from inside the area, with Ollie Watkins netting twice and being joined on the scoresheet by Amadou Onana and Donyell Malen, attacking overperformance in these metrics typically regresses over the longer term.

It's hard to know precisely when, but Arsenal's formidable defence - the best in the league both in terms of goals conceded (seven) and expected goals against (7.4 xGA) - could prove a difficult obstacle for them to overcome.

Hosts Villa will still try their luck

But none of that is to say Aston Villa won't try their luck early and often on Saturday, especially with Arsenal operating without star defenders like William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães, while Cristhian Mosquera hobbled off against Brentford.

Emery's side have trended towards taking more shots per game recently, attempting at least 10 in each of their last five Premier League matches (10 vs Liverpool, 16 vs Bournemouth, 14 vs Leeds United, 16 vs Wolves, 14 vs Brighton).

They have also hit the target at least three times in all those games, doing so eight times against Bournemouth, six times against Wolves and a whopping 10 times at Brighton.

After overcoming a poor start to the campaign, Villa have averaged 14 shots per league match since the start of November, with six hitting the target per game - only Arsenal (6.8) and City (6.1) have bettered that latter figure.

Villa are 21/10 to attempt 13+ shots and 7/5 for 12 or more. They can be backed at an enticing 4/1 to continue their record of getting at least six attempts on target, while 5+ returns 11/5 and 4+ is 1/1.

Given Arsenal have been the league's most accurate shooters since the start of November, punters may also be drawn to a price of 6/4 for a minimum of 10 shots on target across the game, while 11+ is 5/2 and 12+ is 7/2.

Arsenal are 8/13 to have 15 shots, having reached that figure in three of their last four games, or 12/5 to have a minimum of seven on target - they have achieved that feat in four of their last five matches, only failing to do so against Chelsea (four on target). The Gunners are available at 5/4 for 6+ SoT, 4/7 for 5+ or 4/1 for a bolder 8+.

For those expecting both teams to fire off plenty of attempts, it is 5/4 for Arsenal's goalkeeper (likely to be David Raya) to make at least three saves, and he can be backed at 3/1 for 4+.

Emiliano Martinez is always up for a reunion with his former employers, though he dropped out of Villa's XI against Brighton due to a back problem, so Marco Bizot could well be in line for another start. The home goalkeeper is 4/9 to make 3+ saves and 6/5 for 4+.

Eze, Saka and Malen worth a look in the shots markets

There are also several players worth looking at in the shots markets.

Eberechi Eze leads all Arsenal players for shots per 90 minutes this campaign, with 2.76, and he will likely return to Arteta's starting lineup after being limited to half an hour off the bench against Brentford.

Eze is 5/6 to attempt three or more shots or 13/5 to get at least two on target. He failed to attempt a shot against Chelsea or Brentford, though his outing before those games - against Tottenham - saw him have six and hit the target four times. Eze is 23/10 to score anytime.

Eze might be Arsenal's most prolific shooter, but he is not their most accurate, with his 1.11 shots on target per 90 minutes ranking second in the Gunners' squad, behind Bukayo Saka (1.31).

Saka is 8/15 to attempt three or more shots (he has averaged 2.52 per 90) and 15/8 to hit the target twice, which he has done in four of his last five matches. He got two shots on target and scored the clinching goal in just 29 minutes off the bench versus Brentford, and he is 11/5 to score anytime or 6/5 to provide a goal or an assist, a selection we also liked at Stamford Bridge last week and subsequently came in.

Among all players in both squads (minimum 400 minutes played), Donyell Malen has a considerable lead when it comes to shots attempted per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, with 4.23. The Dutchman has also averaged 1.35 shots on target and 0.77 goals per 90.

Malen is 5/4 to fire off at least three shots or 8/11 to get at least one on target. He is also a strong 16/5 selection to score anytime, though Emery's tendency to rotate his attacking options could warrant some caution.

Gyokeres tops Arsenal goal threats

Mikel Merino also scored against Brentford, netting for the second straight game, and his nine Premier League goals this calendar year are the most of any Arsenal player.

The Spaniard could tempt at 13/5 to score anytime, having proven his worth as a potential alternative to Viktor Gyokeres in a false nine role.

However, Gyokeres has come off the bench in each of Arsenal's last two games after recovering from a hamstring injury, so Merino's place in Arteta's starting lineup may not be certain.

Gyokeres leads the anytime goalscorer betting at 6/4, is 17/2 to score at least twice, and is 17/10 to get a pair of shots on target.

There are also some intriguing midfield selections on both teams.

Onana was on target against Brighton, meeting Cash's corner with a downward header at the back post, and he is 5/2 to get at least one shot on target. The Belgian has averaged 0.76 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season, and the fact he can threaten from set-pieces or from range could make him a tempting selection.

Youri Tielemans found himself out of Emery's starting lineup in midweek, but should he return, a price of 15/8 for the long-range specialist to have at least two shots (he averages 1.93 per 90) could appeal, while the Belgian is 12/5 for 1+ SoT.

Morgan Rogers has averaged 1.3 shots per 90 and hit the target 0.66 times per game. He is 1/1 to get at least one shot on target or 9/2 to score anytime, and 13/5 to score or assist - the England international played a stunning pass over the top for Watkins to net at Brighton. That duo have now combined for eight league goals since the start of last season.

Watkins, unsurprisingly, is Villa's leading player in the anytime goalscorer market, coming in at 13/5, while he is 7/1 to open the scoring, after ending his seven-game Premier League with a brace at the Amex.

The one-time Arsenal transfer target had three shots on target against Brighton and is 17/2 to repeat that feat, or 13/5 to record at least two, though given he did not manage more than one in any of his previous 13 outings, a different route is the tempting 11/10 to record 3+ shots, which he has done in three of his last four league appearances.

McGinn a strong candidate for an early Christmas card

John McGinn is no stranger to finding himself in trouble with referees, with his 18 fouls committed in the Premier League this season being the most of any Villa player.

The Scotland international is also Villa's most-fouled player (25) - and the sixth-most fouled in the league overall - so he is sure to be in the thick of the action.

McGinn has conceded at least one foul in each of his last four games. He is a short 1/8 to do so here, but a more enticing 8/11 to concede at least two fouls for the seventh time in the league this season - he committed four against Leeds two weeks ago.

He has been booked in two of his last three league games, and is a tempting 12/5 to pick up a card here. It seems likely Emery will start his captain, but even if McGinn were to come off the bench, he is likely to look to immediately get stuck in.

McGinn has also won a combined 13 fouls in his last six league matches, and a price of 8/13 for him to be fouled at least twice could hold appeal.

Given Emery's tendency to field McGinn out wide, it could also be worth considering Boubacar Kamara.

Only Cash (25) has attempted more tackles in the league this season for Villa than Kamara (22), with Onana and McGinn tallying up 20 each.

Cash, McGinn and Kamara lead the way for Villa when it comes to yellow cards (three each). McGinn, who scored Villa's winner over Arsenal in December 2023, is 9/5 to score or be carded.

Arsenal, though, also have combative and feisty tacklers of their own. While there are doubts over Declan Rice's fitness, Martin Zubimendi is likely to be heavily involved. He is 8/13 to commit 2+ fouls and 13/5 to receive a card.

23/10 for him to pick up another card here could be attractive.

With fatigue setting in amid a hectic schedule, do not be surprised to see plenty of feisty play, especially in midfield.

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