Opta Predicts Crystal Palace v Man City: Back Guardiola's men in 31/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

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Crystal Palace v Man CitySunday, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

Manchester City endured just their second trophyless campaign under Pep Guardiola in 2024/25, with Crystal Palace denying them silverware in May's FA Cup final.

Since-departed creative midfielder Eberechi Eze scored a wonderful breakaway goal and Dean Henderson saved an Omar Marmoush penalty as the Eagles triumphed 1-0 at Wembley Stadium to win their first major trophy.

The teams meet for the first time since that memorable day on Sunday, with City firmly in the Premier League title picture ahead of their trip to Selhurst Park.

Last week's 3-0 win over Sunderland, coupled with Arsenal's defeat at Aston Villa, moved City within two points of the summit.

But with the Gunners hosting winless Wolves on Saturday, City know they will likely have little margin for error against a Palace side currently soaring in fourth place, only five points behind them.

We have used Opta data and insights to preview the match and pick out some of our favourite Bet Builder selections.

In-form Man City can overcome Palace test

Man City are favourites both on the sportsbook and with the Opta supercomputer. They are available at 4/5 for victory with Betfair's 90-minute guarantee, while Opta's predictive model assigns them a 40.6% chance of victory to Palace's 33.7%.

Palace are 11/4 for another triumph over City or 12/1 to repeat their 1-0 Wembley win, while the draw is available at 9/4. The Eagles are 10/11 to avoid defeat on the Double Chance market, which home fans might be keen to get behind.

Palace have something of a reputation for making things tough for City, with Guardiola always keen to sing their praises. However, his team do have a strong record at Selhurst Park.

Indeed, City have lost just two of their last 20 Premier League games against Palace (13 wins, five draws), with both defeats in that run coming at the Etihad Stadium.

Palace are actually winless in their last 10 home league games against City, losing three and drawing seven since a 2-1 victory under Alan Pardew, way back in April 2015.

The Eagles tend to start well against City, but seeing it through has proven a difficult task. Palace have opened the scoring inside the opening 10 minutes in four of their last six league meetings with City, but they have not gone on to win any of those matches (one draw, three defeats). They are 6/4 to score the first goal.

City should be high on confidence, though, having recovered from an early deficit to beat Real Madrid 2-1 in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday - their first away win in Europe's premier club competition after conceding first since April 2021 (2-1 at Paris Saint-Germain).

City have also won their last three Premier League matches while scoring at least three goals in each victory.

Guardiola has overseen 149 wins in which City have scored at least three goals in the competition, and he could now become the third manager with 150+, after Alex Ferguson (245) and Arsene Wenger (228).

City are also the leading Premier League scorers this season with 35 goals and have racked up the most expected goals (30.0 xG). They have the third-best xG overperformance in the division (+5), too, behind Tottenham (+10.1) and Aston Villa (+5.6).

City are 9/4 to score over 2.5 goals, or a more conservative 4/6 to net over 1.5. A price of 5/6 for them to net between two and four goals could also hold appeal.

City are also 23/10 to beat a -1 handicap, which they have done in seven of their 10 league victories this term, or 6/1 to overcome a -2 start.

But City are far from rock-solid at the back, with their current four-match winning streak in all competitions including a 3-2 victory over Leeds United and a nervy 5-4 triumph at Fulham, in which they were almost pegged back after going 5-1 up.

City also gave up a couple of big chances in their 3-0 win over Sunderland last weekend, with Gianluigi Donnarumma making a big one-v-one save to deny Wilson Isidor and Granit Xhaka striking the post. Excluding Erling Haaland's penalty, City only marginally won the xG battle against Madrid, too, by 1.8 to 1.5.

So, while City clearly warrant their favourites tag, particularly as Palace will be without Daniel Muñoz and have doubts over Ismaïla Sarr and Jean-Philippe Mateta, the visitors are not infallible.

Both teams have scored at least twice in the last four Premier League meetings between Palace and City, with two 2-2 draws and 4-2 and 5-2 victories for City in that span. The last top-flight fixture to have this occur more consecutively was Arsenal versus Burnley between 1959 and 1961 (five times).

It is 19/5 for both teams to score at least twice, while the regular both teams to score line - at 6/10 - could be a prudent pick. As well as frequently coming up in this fixture, that has been a winning bet in four of the last six games involving City, and three of the last five involving Palace.

City are 5/2 to win a game involving goals at both ends, with Palace 6/1 in the same market. A City win and over 2.5 match goals is 13/8, and it's 7/2 for the same bet but with over 3.5 goals.

It is 4/6 for over 2.5 match goals, or 9/5 for over 3.5. Palace have only failed to score in three of their 15 league games this season - against Chelsea, Sunderland and Arsenal - while City have only been shut out once by Tottenham, back on matchday two.

It is also worth noting that Oliver Glasner's side were in UEFA Conference League action on Thursday, beating Shelbourne 3-0, and they have appeared to struggle with the effects of fatigue when they have played a Thursday-Sunday double header, including last time in a 2-1 defeat to Manchester United.

All three of Palace's Premier League defeats this season have come directly after Thursday games, as have two of their five draws.

So, while Palace could land a blow, there are compelling reasons to get behind City.

Foden and Cherki thriving as City share goals around

It sounds strange to say, just a few days on from him scoring the winner at the Bernabeu, but Haaland has not played as much of a talismanic role for City lately.

Haaland scored 19 of City's first 36 goals in all competitions this season, but he has since netted just two of their most recent 16.

And since the November international break, the Norwegian has only netted in two of his six games.

Haaland still leads all players in the Premier League for goals (15), xG (14.1), total shots (57) and shots on target (32) in 2025/26, and a price of 8/11 for him to score anytime is hard to ignore. Haaland is also 7/2 to score two or more goals or 13/5 to net the opener.

Haaland's very first Premier League hat-trick came against the Eagles in August 2022, and he is 14/1 to repeat the trick. He has six goals versus Palace in the competition overall, only scoring more against Wolves (10), West Ham (nine), Manchester United (eight) and Fulham (seven).

Haaland is 1/2 to attempt at least four shots, something he has done five times in nine matches since the start of November (all competitions). While he boasted three shots on target against Madrid, he only had one in each of his previous four games - he is 8/15 for two or more shots on target or 15/8 for a minimum of three.

But given several members of Haaland's supporting cast have stepped up in recent weeks, punters might be tempted to look for value elsewhere.

The next City player in the anytime goalscorer betting is Marmoush, at 15/8, but seven of his eight appearances since the end of October have come as a substitute.

Phil Foden is next at 12/5 to net anytime or to 7/1 to get the first goal. Since the start of November, the England international has scored seven goals and assisted two in nine appearances for City.

That is the most of any Premier League player in that timeframe, while only Kylian Mbappe (11) and Deniz Undav (10) have more from Europe's top five leagues (Lamine Yamal also on nine). Foden is 11/10 to score or assist and leads the anytime assist market at 23/10.

Alternatively, Foden is 1/2 to get at least one shot on target or 23/10 for two or more, and he has had six shots on target in his last three Premier League games.

Foden scored with a second-half header against Sunderland last weekend, but that goal was all about the assister Rayan Cherki, who delivered a sensational rabona cross from the right. Cherki is 5/2 to provide an assist, 5/4 for a goal involvement, or 11/4 to score anytime.

Among players to play at least 300 minutes in the Premier League this season, the two players to create the most chances per 90 are Cherki and Jeremy Doku, averaging 3.4 each.

Cherki also ranks first for big chances created per 90 (1.6) and expected assists per 90 (0.55 xA), while he is assisting a goal every 80 minutes in the competition (five in 398 mins), the best-ever ratio by any player in a Premier League campaign.

And Cherki - who has played his way into Guardiola's preferred lineup - could also be a threat in the shots markets, having managed at least one attempt on target on five of his last six starts for City, in all competitions. He is 8/11 to do so again, or an enticing 7/2 to test Henderson twice - he managed two shots on target against Madrid.

Cherki has averaged 3.5 shots and 1.62 shots on target per 90 minutes since joining City, also achieving multiple shots on target in two of his last five matches. And two of the three occasions when he fell short were as a substitute, in appearances totalling just 23 minutes.

Jet-heeled winger Doku has also been in excellent form, creating 24 chances in all competitions since the start of November - no player from Europe's top five leagues has created more. The Belgian is 13/5 to record an assist or 11/10 to be fouled at least three times, which has occurred on five of his last seven starts.

Doku will likely be up against back-up right wing-back Nathaniel Clyne, further strengthening his cause, due to Muñoz being sidelined following knee surgery.

But Palace also have concerns over Mateta, who is their leading player in the anytime goalscorer market at 17/10, and Sarr. The former sustained a knock while on international duty, while Sarr's condition remains unclear ahead of him linking up with Senegal for the Africa Cup of Nations.

If Mateta and Sarr miss out, Eddie Nketiah could carry Palace's attacking hopes. He has scored 21 of his 24 Premier League goals in London - the highest percentage of any player to score 20 goals in the history of the competition. The former Arsenal man is 11/4 for a goal.

Going back to City, another intriguing pick could be left-back Nico O'Reilly, who scored his first Champions League goal in the dream setting of the Bernabeu in midweek.

He is 17/10 to attempt at least one shot on target, and his background as a midfielder helps him to provide an attacking threat from deep. O'Reilly has had four shots on target in his last five games, managing at least one in five of his last nine outings.

O'Reilly also has six goal involvements (two goals, four assists) in 19 appearances this season, and the 20-year-old is 13/5 to score or assist on Sunday, or 7/1 to find the net.

With Guardiola's back four now appearing settled, Josko Gvardiol could also be worth a glance - his 13 goals in all competitions since joining City in August 2023 are the most of any Premier League defender in that span.

The Croatian, who is 17/2 to score anytime, has managed a shot on target in three of City's last four games, scoring once, so a price of 13/5 for him to hit the target at least once is tempting.

Shots and corners in play with entertainment expected

Palace's start to 2025/26 has been impressive, and the underlying data suggests their good form has been no fluke.

Opta's Premier League expected points table has them fifth, with their 25.1 expected points (xPTS) only marginally short of their actual tally of 26. They are also fifth for xG, with 24.6, with their 20 goals representing a significant underperformance - they could reasonably have been expected to have scored more given the quality of chances they have created.

Palace tend to relish playing on the counter-attack, as they will be expected to do against City. Of their last 20 Premier League wins, 17 have come when they have had less than a 50% possession share, with 13 of those victories coming in 2025.

If we see an end-to-end affair in south London, then the match shots and corners markets could come into play.

Two of Palace's last three league games have featured at least nine shots on target, with that match total priced at 4/7. That same bet has been a winner in four of City's last six matches, with three of those going into double figures - it is 1/1 for 10 or more.

After comprehensively seeing off Real Madrid in this market last time out, City are 4/11 to have more shots on target than their hosts, who are 23/10 to win that battle.

And when it comes to corners, City have seen over 9.5 taken in seven of their last 11 games. It is 17/20 for that mark to be passed here.

It is 11/10 for both teams to have at least four corners, or 11/4 for five or more apiece.

It is 7/5 for over 10.5 corners to be taken between the teams, or 23/10 for over 11.5. Given City alone have taken at least seven in four of their last six games, neither total should be ruled out.

Alternatively, punters might wish to take a chance on Henderson to be kept busy in the Palace goal. He is 1/1 to make at least four saves or 23/10 to make at least five.

City have had at least four shots on target in 10 consecutive Premier League games since mid-September, managing a minimum of six in four of their last six, so it would be no surprise if Henderson has to get through plenty of work - he made six stops in the FA Cup final.

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