Opta Predicts Man City v Liverpool tips and predictions: Back the Reds in 10-1 bet builder sunday | OneFootball

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There have been plenty of surprises in the Premier League already this season, but there is still a familiar look to the top three with 10 games played.

Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool lead the way, but with a six-point buffer already built, the Gunners are now 4/9 favourites for the title on Betfair's sportsbook.

Their two closest rivals face off at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday, with both Pep Guardiola and Arne Slot knowing a defeat would represent a major blow to their hopes. City are currently 10/3 for the title, with Liverpool 7/1 after starting the campaign as favourites.

But which way will this weekend's headline fixture go? We dive into the Opta data to pick out our favourite Bet Builder selections.

Liverpool dangerous despite Man City being favourites

It's understandable to see City go in as favourites. Not only do they have home advantage, but their recent form has been extremely impressive, overcoming high-flying Bournemouth 3-1 last week and then dispatching Borussia Dortmund 4-1 in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday.

As well as Erling Haaland continuing his electric form, those games have also seen many key members of his supporting cast start to come to the fore, something which had been lacking up to now.

Liverpool, meanwhile, were on a miserable four-game losing run in the Premier League before last week's 2-0 triumph over Aston Villa.

And while the Reds did the double over City in the Premier League last season, it's not a fixture they have always fared particularly well in, as those two wins were as many victories as they had managed in their previous 12 league meetings (six draws, four defeats) combined.

Since the start of April, City have won the most points in the Premier League (42), winning 13 of 19 games (three draws, three defeats), while they have also won nine of their last 10 such games at the Etihad in that time (one loss).

But despite all that, there could be reasons for punters to consider opposing City, given their short price.

The Opta supercomputer does make Man City favourites with a 46.9% win probability, though that falls well short of the 55.6% probability implied by their Betfair Sportsbook price.

Our predictive model assigns Liverpool a 53.1% chance of getting something from the game (26.7% for an away win, with the draw at 26.4%), and it is very rare that the Premier League champions would be 5/6 just to avoid defeat on the Double Chance market, so that is a selection that may offer appealing value.

Liverpool were extremely impressive against elite opposition, Real Madrid, on Tuesday, and the data suggested they deserved a more handsome victory than the 1-0 result they secured at Anfield.

The Reds fired off 17 shots to Madrid's eight in that game, accumulating 2.51 expected goals (xG) to their opponents' 0.45. Kylian Mbappé was limited to just 0.19 xG from three shots, while Vinícius Júnior did not manage a single effort at goal.

So, Liverpool showed clear improvements against Villa and Madrid, and while Slot has repeatedly mentioned their struggles with defending long balls this season, that may not be much of an issue this time.

City's 60 build-up attacks in the Premier League this season are almost double the tally achieved by their closest competitors, Arsenal (36), and Guardiola's men also lead the way for sequences containing 10 passes or more, with 174.

Only Chelsea, West Ham and Wolves move the ball upfield with a slower direct speed than City, who progress 1.66 metres per second. Liverpool rank second in the league by the same metric, and the two most recent teams to beat them - Crystal Palace and Brentford - are first and third, respectively.

So, Liverpool will be facing a team that are not generally set up to exploit their biggest weakness, and they will also have a physical advantage after playing their Champions League game 24 hours before City.

Of course, some punters may be uncomfortable opposing a City team that are generally outstanding in big games, winning 10 of their last 12 top-flight matches against reigning champions (one draw, one defeat), most recently a 4-1 win over Liverpool in 2021.

For those looking to avoid the match result markets, over 2.5 match goals is 4/9, with over 3.5 goals available at 6/5. Each of City's last three matches in all competitions have contained over 3.5 goals, after none of their previous four had done so.

Liverpool, meanwhile, have seen over 2.5 goals scored in seven of their nine Premier League matches this season, including their last five in a row. Seven of their nine games have also seen both teams score, and that selection is available at 40/85.

Ten of the last 13 meetings between City and Liverpool have featured goals at both ends, though they have met four times since they last shared over 2.5 goals - a 4-1 win for City in April 2023.

City (20 goals) are the only team to outscore Liverpool (18) in the Premier League this season, though the Reds also have just the joint-10th best defensive record, shipping 14 goals, so there is every chance we see another open game involving Slot's team.

Haaland closing in on a century

Haaland may just be in the form of his life. A brace against Bournemouth last week took him to 98 Premier League goals, in just 107 appearances in the competition.

He is set to shatter the record for fewest games required to reach a century of goals, with Alan Shearer previously needing 124, and the Norwegian is 10/3 to score two or more goals and make history here. A Haaland hat-trick, meanwhile, is 13/1.

Haaland was also on target against Dortmund in midweek, taking him to 18 goals in 14 matches in all competitions this season - and that's without even mentioning some of his stunning numbers for Norway.

The striker also leads all EPL players for goals (13), expected goals (10.25 xG), shots (43) and shots on target (25) this term, so it is no surprise to see him leading the anytime goalscorer market at 8/11. He is also the favourite to net first, at 3/1.

Haaland has averaged a goal every 66 minutes in the competition this campaign, scoring with 30.2% of his shots and 52.4% of his big chances (11/21).

However, one small note of caution is he has only scored once in four league appearances against Liverpool. Only against Newcastle United and Aston Villa (one in five games) does he have a worse goal-per-game ratio in the competition.

While Liverpool's leaky defensive record this season makes Haaland - as he always is - a terrific goalscorer selection, he could also be a strong play on the shots markets.

Haaland has recorded two or more shots on target in seven of his last eight Premier League matches, while scoring twice in each of his last four home games in the competition. The Norwegian is 8/15 to attempt two or more shots on target again this weekend, having averaged 2.62 per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season. He is 15/8 to slightly outperform that average and register three.

The Norwegian has averaged 4.51 shots per league game this campaign, and he is 8/15 to register four or more, or 13/10 to fire off at least five.

Omar Marmoush is the next City player in the anytime goalscorer betting at 15/8, then Phil Foden is at 21/10, with the England international also 21/10 to register an assist.

Coming into matchday 11, Foden is one of just five players to have created at least 20 Premier League chances this season, averaging 2.9 per 90 minutes.

Jeremy Doku is the other City player in that quintet, and he has averaged 3.3 chances created per 90 - both players are enjoying their best-ever seasons for chances created per 90.

Doku is 3/1 for an assist, while he could also be worth a punt to win two or more fouls.

He is the only player to play at least 180 minutes for either team while averaging more than two fouls won per 90 in the league this season (2.3, 14 in 549 minutes). It is 4/9 for the Belgian to be fouled at least twice - Dortmund fouled him three times last time out.

Rayan Cherki is another member of City's group of playmaking options to come into form lately, registering two assists versus Bournemouth last week. His five games with multiple assists in 2025 are the most of any player from Europe's top five leagues, and he is 23/10 to tee up a goal here.

Salah also hunting a record

Haaland is not the only player with a piece of history in his sights, though.

Mohamed Salah is 15/8 to score anytime, or 13/2 to net first. Salah scored his 250th goal for Liverpool versus Villa, and his next Premier League goal involvement will see him surpass Wayne Rooney (with Manchester United) to claim the outright competition record for goals and assists for a single club (currently tied on 276).

Salah has more goal involvements against City than any other player in Premier League history, with 15 (nine goals, six assists), and with Liverpool returning to form, he could be worth a look at 6/5 to score or assist.

The Egypt star has registered at least two shots on each of his last six Premier League appearances, also winning two fouls in three of those six matches.

Salah can be backed to fire off at least two shots at 1/3, or 11/10 for three or more.

He is 13/5 to get two shots on target, though he has only reached that mark twice in his last nine matches across all competitions.

Alternatively, Salah is 16/5 to be fouled at least twice. His nine fouls won in the Premier League this season are the joint-third most among all Liverpool players, with Cody Gakpo winning 17 and Ryan Gravenberch on 10.

Gakpo - who has won 1.92 fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season - is 10/11 to be fouled twice, while Gravenberch - who has won 1.3 fouls per 90 and brought more guile to Liverpool's midfield last week after a spell out injured - is 7/5.

As always, there are plenty of Liverpool attackers worth a glance in the goalscorer betting. In addition to Gakpo at 3/1, Alexander Isak is 17/10 for an anytime goal with Hugo Ekitike at 21/10.

Isak has missed Liverpool's last four matches with a groin injury, though he was named in Graham Potter's first Sweden squad this week. When releasing his squad, Potter admitted Isak is unlikely to play 90 minutes twice in four days for his country during the next international break, so it remains to be seen whether he starts against City.

Florian Wirtz is 4/1 to get his first goal for the Reds, though he may be a more attractive selection to record an assist at 7/2. Wirtz is the only Premier League player to create at least five chances from open play in multiple games this season, in all competitions. He did so against Real Madrid, having also done so versus Atletico Madrid in September.

Dominik Szoboszlai scored a wonderful free-kick to defeat Arsenal this season and is 6/1 to strike against another title rival. The Hungarian, who was superb against Madrid, has three yellow cards in the Premier League this season and is likely to play a key role in the midfield battle - he is 7/5 to either score or be carded, 1/3 to commit a foul or 9/5 to commit two or more.

Goalkeepers to be kept busy?

Liverpool's defensive issues this season have been well-documented, and one consequence has been an increased workload for their goalkeepers.

Slot has confirmed first-choice goalkeeper Alisson will again be absent, and stand-in Giorgi Mamardashvili has made at least three saves on three of his last six starts, even though he surprisingly did not have to do too much against Madrid.

The Georgian is 1/2 to reach that figure here, and if any team is capable of keeping him busy, it is City.

City rank joint-fourth in the Premier League for total shots attempted this season (138) and are second for attempts on target (51).

Seven of the 10 goalkeepers to start a league match against City this season have made at least three saves in that game, including each of the last five.

City's Gianluigi Donnarumma, meanwhile, was forced into four saves by Bournemouth and three by Dortmund, having not made more than two saves in any of his first nine games for the club.

The Reds have averaged 4.5 shots on target per Premier League game this season, and they are 1/2 to have at least four here, or 5/4 to slightly outdo their average and manage at least five.

Given those prices, backing Donnarumma to be busy may be the more prudent play, with an open game anticipated.

Now read Alan Shearer's Premier League predictions for every match this weekend