Opta supercomputer tips Tottenham for drop, but pressure skews relegation run-in | OneFootball

According to NY Times, Opta’s Supercomputer now has Tottenham most likely to take the final relegation place, yet pressure can skew six-pointers.

It simulates every remaining fixture 10,000 times using betting odds and Opta Power Rankings. With Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley already down, it gives Tottenham 59.4%, West Ham 37.3%, Forest 1.95% and Leeds 1.22%.

The run-in brings direct duels. Leeds visit Tottenham on 11 May, then go to West Ham on 24 May, the final day. Forest and West Ham could also drag Newcastle, 14th and eight points clear but beaten in nine of their past 12, into danger.

Former defenders Danny Higginbotham and Robert Huth describe these matches as tense and restrictive, with teams abandoning usual patterns and nerves often dictating events.

Crystal Palace’s last-day escape in 2010 under captain Shaun Derry hinged on fine margins. Docked 10 points, they drew 2-2 at Sheffield Wednesday to stay up. Leon Clarke equalised, then broke a toe celebrating and went off.

In 2015, Leicester’s push turned on one moment at Burnley. Matty Taylor hit the post from a penalty, Jamie Vardy soon forced a scrappy 1-0 winner. Huth felt Burnley leading would probably have sent Leicester down.

Higginbotham thinks the model is right on Spurs for human reasons, citing mentality and know-how. He argues Tottenham lack the survival experience around them, which can matter as pressure peaks.

Source: NY Times