OPTA updated projections on Newcastle United chances in Champions League after Athletic Bilbao win | OneFootball

How will Newcastle United end up in the Champions League this 2025/26 season?

Four matches played already.

The 2-1 defeat to Barcelona at St James’ Park.

Followed by the 4-0 away win against Union S-G.

Next up a 3-0 victory over Benfica at SJP.

Then last night at St James’ Park again, an excellent 2-0 victory over Athletic Bilbao.

Four more league ones to go, next up Marseille away on Tuesday 25 November.

Each of the 36 clubs playing four games away and four at home.

Opta have now done their updated Champions League 2025-26 Projections for Newcastle United and the other 35 clubs, following Wednesday night’s matches.

These are the updated predictions via Opta – 6 November 2025:

So the updated Opta predictions for Newcastle United:

Predicted final league position – 8th.

Predicted number of points after the eight league matches – 14.89 points from a possible 24.

Percentage chance of ending up very top of league stage after the eight games – A 0.71% possibility of doing so.

Percentage chance of ending up in the play-offs – A 54.08% chance of finishing between 9th and 24th.

Percentage chance of reaching the quarter-finals – A 43.44% chance of getting to the last eight.

Percentage chance of reaching the semi-finals – A 19.64% chance of getting to the last four.

Percentage chance of reaching the final – A 7.85% chance of getting to the last two.

Percentage chance of winning the Champions League – A 3.49% chance of winning the whole thing! (Opta rating Newcastle United as the tenth most likely winners…)

Newcastle 2 Athletic Bilbao 0 – Wednesday 5 November 2025 8pm

Match Stats

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Burn 11, Joelinton 49

Bilbao:

Possession was Newcastle 58% Bilbao 42%

Total shots were Newcastle 8 Bilbao 12

Shots on target were Newcastle 4 Bilbao 5

Corners were Newcastle 2 Bilbao 5

Touches in the opposition box Newcastle 20 Bilbao 16

Newcastle team v Athletic Bilbao:

Pope, Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn (Hall 65), Bruno (Miley 66), Joelinton, Tonali, Gordon (Jacob Murphy 41), Woltemade (Ramsey 83), Barnes (Elanga 66)

Subs: