Paraguay vs Australia Prediction: World Cup 2026 Preview & Best Bets | OneFootball

Paraguay vs Australia | Group D, Matchday 15 | Thursday, June 25, 2026 | 7:00 PM PT | Levi’s Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara), USA

How to watch: Fox Sports (USA) | SBS / Optus Sport (Australia) | ITV / BBC (UK)

Group D standings (after Matchday 2):

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What’s at Stake

Australia and Paraguay are level on three points apiece heading into the final round of Group D fixtures, with the United States already through as group winners. A win for either side guarantees a place in the Round of 16, while a draw could also be enough depending on whether Paraguay’s goal difference of -2 (compared to Australia’s 0) proves decisive. Paraguay are seeking their first knockout-round appearance since their quarter-final run at the 2010 World Cup, a 16-year wait. Australia, meanwhile, are chasing a third trip to the Round of 16 after their breakthroughs in 2006 and 2022. One of them advances tonight. The other goes home.

Verdict

Australia enter this decisive clash with the superior goal difference and a more settled tactical shape under Tony Popovic, and that defensive solidity makes them a credible pick to edge a tight, nervy contest. At +300 for the Socceroos win, there is genuine value in a side that kept a clean sheet against Turkey and knows a draw may not be enough given Paraguay’s goal difference deficit.

Paraguay vs Australia Match Preview

This is a dead-rubber for one side and a lifeline for the other, and the group standings shape exactly how both teams will approach it. Paraguay, sitting third on goal difference, need three points to feel safe. A draw leaves them relying on the scoreline in the other Group D game, and with a goal difference two worse than Australia’s, the math is uncomfortable. Manager G. Alfaro’s side showed they can grind out a result after beating Turkey 1-0, but the 4-1 loss to the United States exposed defensive vulnerabilities at the highest level.

Australia arrive knowing a draw almost certainly sends them through. Tony Popovic’s side beat Turkey 2-0 in their opener before losing 2-0 to the United States, and that disciplined defensive unit now has a decision to make: press for the win to remove any doubt, or sit on the point that probably gets the job done. The Socceroos’ qualifying campaign across the AFC was flawless, four wins from four with a goal difference of +8, and that momentum gives them confidence this is a team capable of controlling a match when the occasion demands it.

The tension between Paraguay’s need to attack and Australia’s ability to absorb pressure is where this game is won or lost. La Albirroja have talented movers in midfield and a striker capable of making things happen in Julio Enciso, but if Australia stay compact and hit on the counter, Paraguay’s necessity to push forward could leave gaps behind. Expect a cagey opening, but this fixture has a late drama feel written all over it.

Team Form

Paraguay Recent Form

Paraguay’s competitive record heading into this tournament was encouraging. They topped their CONMEBOL qualifying mini-group with three wins, two draws and one loss across six matches, beating Uruguay 2-0 at home and holding Colombia to a draw away from home. That said, the 4-1 defeat to the United States in their second group game is a reminder of how quickly their defensive shape can unravel against high-quality attacking lines. The wins tend to be narrow; the defeats can be heavy.

Australia Recent Form

Australia’s AFC qualifying run was as clean as it gets: four wins from four, including a 5-1 thrashing of Indonesia, a 2-0 win away to China, a 1-0 victory over Japan and a 2-1 away win in Saudi Arabia. At World Cup level, their 2-0 win over Turkey was composed and clinical, with Connor Metcalfe and Nestory Irankunda both getting on the scoresheet. The loss to the United States was more damaging in scoreline than performance, and Popovic’s men will draw confidence from having the cleaner goal difference in this head-to-head battle for second place.

Paraguay vs Australia Head-to-Head

These two nations have met five times, all in friendly competition, and Australia hold the edge across that record. Their most recent meeting came in October 2010, a 1-0 home win for the Socceroos. Before that, a 1-1 draw in October 2006 and three matches in June 2000, which produced a 2-1 Australian win and two goalless draws. Australia have never lost to Paraguay across their five encounters, winning two and drawing three.

Crucially, this is the first time these sides have ever met in a competitive World Cup match. History in friendlies carries limited weight when a Round of 16 place is the prize, but the psychological edge sits with Australia entering a match they have never lost against this opponent. Paraguay will need to overturn that record when it matters most.

Team News

Paraguay head into this fixture with their squad as announced. Miguel Almiron, the most experienced and recognizable name in midfield with 76 caps and 10 international goals, shapes as the creative focal point, while Julio Enciso offers dynamism off the line as one of the younger attacking talents in the squad. Antonio Sanabria leads the line as the experienced striker option. The midfield blend of Andres Cubas, Braian Ojeda and Diego Gomez gives Alfaro options in terms of how defensive or expansive he sets his side up for a match where he must chase the win.

Australia carry a settled squad into this game under Tony Popovic. Mathew Ryan, with 104 caps, brings enormous experience between the posts. Jackson Irvine, who has 82 caps and 14 international goals, remains the engine of the midfield, and Mathew Leckie at 35 still offers experience and direct running on the wing with 80 caps and 14 goals to his name. Nestory Irankunda, already on the scoresheet in this tournament, provides youthful energy from the front and could be the difference-maker in a tight contest.

No significant injury concerns have been flagged for either side ahead of this decisive group finale, and both managers are expected to field their strongest available XIs given the stakes involved.

Paraguay vs Australia Predicted Lineups

Paraguay (4-4-2): Gatito Fernandez; Juan Jose Caceres, Gustavo Gomez (c), Fabian Balbuena, Junior Alonso; Ramon Sosa, Andres Cubas, Miguel Almiron, Diego Gomez; Julio Enciso, Antonio Sanabria

Predicted XI – squads to be confirmed.

Australia (4-3-3): Mathew Ryan; Milos Degenek, Harry Souttar, Cameron Burgess, Aziz Behich; Connor Metcalfe, Jackson Irvine (c), Aiden O’Neill; Mathew Leckie, Nestory Irankunda, Awer Mabil

Predicted XI – squads to be confirmed.

Key Tactical Matchup

The central battle that defines this game is Miguel Almiron against Australia’s defensive midfield pairing of Jackson Irvine and Connor Metcalfe. Almiron, carrying 76 caps of international experience and operating in the half-spaces, will look to drive Paraguay forward between the lines and create overloads that force Australia’s back four to step up. Irvine and Metcalfe, both playing their club football at FC St. Pauli, are well-drilled in a high-energy pressing system and will look to squeeze the space Almiron needs to operate. If Australia win that midfield battle and play through it into Nestory Irankunda on the counter, Paraguay’s need to push numbers forward leaves them exposed. That transition zone is where the game’s decisive moment is most likely to arrive.

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Main Pick: Australia to Win (+300 at BetOnline)

Australia enter this match with the better goal difference, a clean head-to-head record against Paraguay, and the psychological comfort of knowing a draw likely sends them through anyway. Popovic’s side beat Turkey 2-0 with a composed performance and have the defensive structure to sit and hit. At +300, the price on Australia reflects the genuine uncertainty of a knockout-or-go-home match, but the underlying picture strongly favors the Socceroos. That is the value here.

Under 2 Goals (-145 at BetOnline)

Both sides have strong incentives to stay organized defensively. Australia need only a draw to advance and will not throw bodies forward recklessly. Paraguay, while needing to win, have scored only two goals in their two group matches and kept one clean sheet. Four of Paraguay’s last five competitive results produced two goals or fewer in total, and Australia’s 2-0 win over Turkey was their only multi-goal output at this tournament. The Under 2 at -145 is the most defensible goals-market position.

Nestory Irankunda Anytime Scorer (best available price)

Irankunda has already scored at this World Cup and at 20 years old brings direct, unpredictable running that creates problems for any defense. With Australia likely to look for counter-attacking moments, his pace in behind a Paraguay backline pushing for a goal makes him the most dangerous individual outlet in this match. He is the pick to find the net if the Socceroos punish Paraguay on the break.

Paraguay vs Australia Odds Across Operators

Here is a snapshot of the best available Paraguay vs Australia betting odds from leading operators ahead of the Group D decider.

The best available price on Paraguay is +195 at BetOnline. The draw sits at +126 best available. Australia’s best price is +300 at BetOnline, which represents the headline value in this market. For the totals market, Over 2 goals is available at +128 (BetOnline, Lucky Rebel) and Under 2 is -145 across all three books.

How to Watch and How to Bet

How to Watch Paraguay vs Australia

The match kicks off at 7:00 PM PT on Thursday, June 25, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. US viewers can watch live on Fox Sports and Telemundo. Australian fans can follow on SBS or Optus Sport. UK viewers have ITV and BBC. The match is also available on TyC Sports and TV Publica in Argentina, Globo and SporTV in Brazil, and CTV, TSN and RDS in Canada.

How to Bet on Paraguay vs Australia

New to betting on the World Cup? Here is a straightforward eight-step process to place your Paraguay vs Australia picks.

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