Portugal vs. Croatia Match Preview | OneFootball

The late Tina Turner famously sang “you’re simply the best”, but she clearly wasn’t referring to Portugal or Croatia.

Neither side were able to top their respective group, so this is a battle of the second place teams. However, Portugal are still the favorites heading into this one. After all, it has only been a year since their UEFA Nations League triumph.

In fact, Roberto Martinez’s team defeated the Croats in the group stage of that competition, winning 2-1 at the Estádio da Luz in September 2024. Croatia secured a draw in the return fixture, but Portugal still managed to top the group by a comfortable six-point margin.

However, Croatia usually turn up at the World Cup. They not only reached the final in 2018, but followed this up with a third place finish in Qatar. Therefore, this could end up being one of the most even matches so far in the round of 32.

Portugal’s route to the knockouts

Despite Portugal making their dream start with a sixth minute goal against DR Congo, it did not take long for things to take a turn for the worse. The African outfit struck back just before half-time, and remained strong enough in defense to see out a draw.

Yet the Portuguese have no grounds for complaining, considering they made no use of their 75 per cent possession. Joao Neves’ goal was their only shot landed on target, and it was Congo who obtained a higher xG score.

Fotmob: Portugal (red) vs DR Congo (blue) stats

Uzbekistan proved to be far less challenging, as Portugal stormed to a 5-0 victory. However, then came a goalless draw against Colombia, who managed four more shots on target, and 1.70xG, compared with the European nations’ 0.93.

On the bright side, Portugal have messed up in the group stages before and still prevailed. The finest example is when they won Euro 2016 after a third place finish. So despite an underwhelming start, there is still time for Cristiano Ronaldo and his teammates to come good.

Croatia’s route to the knockouts

England’s 4-2 victory over Croatia was one of the most exciting matches of the tournament so far, and there were even some positives for Zlatko Dalić and his team to take despite the loss. They netted two well-worked goals, but struggled to cope at the back when the Three Lions got into their groove.

In spite of this setback, Croatia did enough to make it through. A narrow 1-0 victory was recorded over Paraguay, and their 2-1 win against Ghana was an even closer contest. But regardless of this, picking up six points is not bad at all.

It could have got even better for Croatia too, as had England failed to beat Panama; they would have topped Group L. Unfortunately for them, Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane delivered in the second half, preventing a last 32 clash against Congo.

What to expect

Portugal are clearly a difficult team to beat, but their ability to win matches is apparently limited to playing against the likes of Uzbekistan. And while Croatia have come out on top in two of their three games, none of those victories have been overly convincing.

This ought to be a close one, as neither side has the kind of firepower displayed by teams such as France, who completely blew Sweden away in the last 32. History in this tournament would appear to favor Croatia, but Portugal have fared better at recent European competitions.

Ultimately, this could be another match which ends up going all the way to a penalty shootout. If one team do manage to win it within 90 minutes, it is likely to be by a single goal. Then again, Germany were knocked out by Paraguay, so anything is possible at this World Cup!

Portugal: Team news and expected lineup

Martinez has aimed not to disrupt his team with multiple changes. In fact, he has named an identical starting lineup two matches in a row. The chances of introducing a different player at the back are low, since Portugal kept clean sheets in both those games.

Additionally, an attacking switch-up seems unlikely. However, if this were to happen, João Felix could be replaced by Rafael Leão on the left wing. Pedro Neto started in this position against Congo with Bernardo Silva on the right. While the Al-Nassr man has started there ever since, he was replaced by Leão after 70 minutes against Colombia.

Predicted Portugal lineup: Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha; Neto, Fernandes, Felix;Ronaldo

Croatia: Team news and expected lineup

Unlike the Portuguese, Croatia’s team repeatedly changed after each game up to this point. This includes the formation used, as Dalić opted for a back three against England, before switching to a 4-2-3-1 formation.

It is unlikely the 3-4-3 will be used against Portugal, considering Croatia conceded four goals in their opening match of the World Cup. However, it is less clear which players will be handed a start. The central midfield should remain unchanged, but there could be one or two tactical switch-ups elsewhere.

Predicted Croatia lineup: Livakovic;Stanisic, Sutalo, Pongracic, Gvardiol; Modrić, Kovacic;Perišić, Sučić, Vlašić; Musa