Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Back a four-fold acca at 9/1 | OneFootball

Brighton v Liverpool Tip - Back a low-scoring game

Click here for Brighton v Liverpool oddsSaturday, 12:30Live on TNT Sports

Liverpool come into this off the back of two poor results against bottom five opposition in the Premier League, firstly losing 2-1 at Wolves and then conceding yet another injury time goal to draw 1-1 with Tottenham. And their record on the road directly after Champions League matches doesn't make for pretty reading either, losing four of five. It's now three wins in the last four for Brighton but let's not forget that before this run it was only one win in 13, so despite Liverpool's shortcomings, I don't think we should be in a rush to back the home side at 21/10.

A lower scoring game could be more likely than the odds suggest. Six of Brighton's last seven games have finished Under 2.5 goals, yet the goal line here is set at 3.0 and 83% of their matches have finished Under 3.5 goals. For Liverpool it's 73% of their matches with three or fewer goals and they've already met twice this season at Anfield where it finished 3-0 and 2-0 to the Reds. It's money back if there's exactly three goals with only four goals or more seeing the bet lose.

Fulham v Burnley Tip - Oppose Clarets once again

Click here for Fulham v Burnley oddsSaturday, 15:00

Following last weekend's draw with Bournemouth, it's now 20 of their last 21 matches Burnley have failed to win as the relegation trap door to the Championship starts to gape. We can immediately oppose them on the road where they have failed to win 13 of their 15 games by backing Fulham and Draw double-chance.

We can combine that with backing Over 2.5 goals. A notable 67% of Burnley's away games have seen Over 2.5 goals and, at Craven Cottage, nine of Fulham's last 13 have seen three or more strikes. Fulham won a goal heavy reverse fixture 3-2.

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Everton v Chelsea Tip - Back more goals in Rosenoir games

Click here for Everton v Chelsea oddsSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Since Liam Rosenior arrived at Chelsea at the beginning of January, it has been goals galore in Blues matches. In his 18 in charge across all competitions, there have been 66 goals at an average of 3.67 per-game. They've scored 38 but also conceded 28. It's noticeable how few clean sheets they are keeping with just three in total, and two of those were versus Hull and Pafos, with just one of those in his last 14 games.

Thirteen of Rosenoir's 18 games in charge have delivered Over 2.5 goals winners (72%), including nine of 10 on the road, and that has to be the bet again. Everton aren't the best opposition for a goals-based bet but six of their last 12 at home have seen three or more goals and this Chelsea side are clearly well above an average Premier League side in terms of goal heavy matches.

Leeds v Brentford Tip - Back pragmatic Farke

Click here for Leeds v Brentford oddsSaturday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

There was no change in the Premier League relegation battle last weekend as the bottom seven sides all drew their respective matches. It means Leeds remain three points clear of the drop and perhaps with a goal difference of -11, crucially also have the advantage over Nottingham Forest with -15 and West Ham with -19. However, Leeds' goal difference won't stay that way if they continue failing to find the back of the net as they have done in their last three matches, meaning they've failed to win their last five.

The Whites have kept things fairly tight at the other end, with their last four finishing Under 2.5 goals, and I wonder if Daniel Farke is going to keep them up with a bit of a siege mentality. Eight of Brentford's last 12 away games have finished with three or fewer goals and, in a market that's priced 50-50, the evidence suggests the value is in backing Under 2.5. The reverse fixture finished 1-1 and it could be similar at Elland Road.

With Betfair offering punters the chance to Bet £10 and Get £10 on football accas and bet builders this week, it could pay to back all four selections together.