Premier League Tips: MD16 best bets involving Liverpool, Leeds and Newcastle | OneFootball

English Premier League

Mark has found three plays for MD16 in the Premier League

Mark O'Haire's latest betting Notebook pinpoints three punting angles to follow across MD16 of the Premier League...

Liverpool v Brighton: Side with the Seagulls

Liverpool v BrightonSaturday 13 December, 15:00

Liverpool's shift towards a diamond midfield has yielded improvements in performance levels against Leeds and Inter over the past week. But are we ready to trust the Reds around the 1.75 mark?

Brighton head to Anfield having scored in 23 of their past 26 away Premier League matches with the Seagulls often operating at their best as underdogs. Remarkably, Fabian Hurzeler's outfit have lost just once in a 21-game sample when enjoying less than 50% of possession, bagged four wins in six this term with a lower share of the ball.

Albion also possess an outrageously impressive output in the final-third when facing elite opposition. Brighton are averaging 16.1 shots per-game across 10 games against Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City during Hurzeler's reign, as well as an eye-catching 1.78 xG per-game. Such impressive numbers make the visitors interesting outsiders here.

We can back Brighton with a +1 Asian Handicap start at 1.78. Liverpool need to beat the Seagulls by two clear goals for the selection to lose, and should Albion get on the scoresheet as we expect, the Reds will require a minimum of three goals for our preferred play to fall. That's a position I'm keen to support on Saturday.

Sunderland v Newcastle: Card chaos at the SoL

Sunderland v NewcastleSunday 14 December, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

The first Wear-Tyne Premier League derby in a decade takes centre-stage on Super Sunday and fixtures between bitter rivals Sunderland and Newcastle often produce plenty of fireworks with the raw emotion of the occasion often spilling over.

The last 11 meetings have produced card counts of 6-5-4-7-8-4-2-5-6-12-7 - an average of 6.00 per-game with eight of those encounters covering the Over 4.5 Cards line, whilst referee Peter Bankes has also produced 5+ bookings in five of his 11 EPL assignments this season. With Over 4.5 Cards just 8/15, it makes sense to focus on individuals.

The two teams' skippers in central midfield stand-out and backing Granit Xhaka and Bruno Guimaraes to be carded pays 7.91 on the Sportsbook. Xhaka has already collected four cards since moving to the Mackens and was booked in six of 14 EPL encounters with Spurs when representing Arsenal over a seven-season spell.

Meanwhile, Guimaraes has only been cautioned three times this term, he is avergaing 1.74 tackles per-90 and 1.69 fouls per-90 across league and Champions League action, highlighting his combative nature. Since moving to English football, the Brazilian has earned 30 yellows in 138 EPL outings, averaging a card every 383 minutes.

Brentford v Leeds: Overs the angle

Brentford v LeedsSunday 14 December, 16:30Live on Sky Sports

Brentford's showdown with Leeds on Super Sunday screams goals. The Premier League is already averaging an excellent 2.82 goals per-game this season with 57% of fixtures featuring Over 2.5 Goals and a repeat here pays an appetising 1.90.

Brentford have covered the spread themselves in four of their seven Community Stadium showdowns, avergaing 2.14 home goals per-game under Keith Andrews. Only Man City have created more Big Chances at home than the Bees this season with the hosts also averaging a rock-solid 1.59 non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) per-game.

Five of those seven Gtech Stadium games have seen both sides score with the same hit-rate occurring for Over 3.5 Goals backers. With Leeds delivering Over 2.5 profit in 10 of their previous 11, Over 3.5 in four of their most recent five, and BTTS also banking in nine of their last 11, the opportunity to support a goal-laden game stands-out.

The Whites head to Brentford having racked up eight goals since Daniel Farke's switch to a 3-5-2 direct system at half-time at Man City. Since that change, Leeds won the second-half at The Etihad, beat Chelsea and held Liverpool, suggesting they're well-capable of getting amongst the goals and being competitive in the capital.