Premier League Tips: MD24 best bets involving Arsenal, Man City and Wolves | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Mark has found three plays for MD24 in the Premier League

Mark O'Haire's latest betting Notebook column for Betfair pinpoints three punting angles from the Betfair Exchange and Sportsbook to follow across MD24 of the Premier League including Tottenham v Man City on Sunday...

Leeds v Arsenal: Gunners too short to support

Leeds v ArsenalSaturday 31 January, 15:00

Arsenal destroyed Leeds back in August but the creaking Gunners may not find Saturday's reverse encounter quite so straightforward. Mikel Arteta's outfit are now three Premier League games without victory with insipid open play efforts and sloppy defensive errors characterising a series of nervous recent performances.

Leeds are W5-D4-L2 at Elland Road and come into this clash following a run of one loss in 10 (conceding two stoppage-time goals at Newcastle). The Whites rank fifth on xP over the last eight games and seventh over a 12-match sample, with Daniel Farke's troops also rated fourth in the home xP standings. They're no easy meat.

Yet Leeds are priced as significant outsiders here and there's opportunity to get the home side onside in the Asian Handicap - Leeds +1 pays 1.99 and requires Arsenal to win by multiple goals for our selection to lose. Even a one-goal margin of victory for the Gunners would see our stake returned, a strong position to start the game from.

Arsenal head to West Yorkshire having tabled two triumphs in six away league dates. The Gunners boast only a 50% win-rate across their last 20 away league outings, while only three victorious during that same sample came by two goals or more - at Burnley, Ipswich and Leicester - two relegated teams and another destined for the same fate.

Wolves v Bournemouth: Mosquera to make his mark

Wolves v BournemouthSaturday 31 January, 15:00

Wolves produced another solid defensive effort despite a 2-0 defeat at Man City last weekend. The Old Gold even drew the shot count 11-11 at The Etihad - five of their 11 attempts came from centre-half Yerson Mosquera and the physical Colombian appears overpriced at 12/1 in the Anytime Goalscorer market against Bournemouth.

The Cherries conceded their 16th goal from set-pieces against Liverpool last time out and only Burnley have lost a higher percentage of aerial duels than Andoni Iraola's outfit. What's more, Bournemouth are facing the fourth-most shots from dead-ball situations and also sit in the top-three for fouls committed and corners conceded.

That should give Wolves opportunities. Mosquera has yet to break his EPL goalscoring duck yet the tenacious defender is a significant leader for the Old Gold in terms of attempts from set-pieces from minutes played (avergaing one every 131 minutes). He's also had 10 shots in his past five fixtures, while avergaing 0.43 shots on-target per-90.

Tottenham v Manchester City: Citizens to overcome Spurs

Tottenham v Manchester CitySunday 1 February, 16:30Live on Sky Sports

Tottenham required a last-minute equaliser to avoid defeat at Burnley last weekend and Spurs now return home for a devilishly difficult game against Manchester City. There's a despondent and toxic atmosphere around the capital club - despite their progress in the Champions League - who are also dealing with a stack of injuries to key players. It's hard to be positive about Tottenham right now.

Since the start of November, Spurs are 18th in terms of points earned, winning just twice and scoring only 16 goals in 14 league fixtures. The hosts have tabled just four league triumphs in their past 25 in front of their own supporters and have managed a meagre six clean sheets in their most recent 49 fixtures here. Extraordinarily bad numbers.

Manchester City haven't been their formidable selves for much of the past 18 months, yet Pep Guardiola's group do welcome back Marc Guehi, Antoine Semenyo and Rodri to their squad this weekend. Erling Haaland was back on the scoresheet in midweek, Rayan Cherki is impressing and Omar Marmoush is back fit and contributing.

The Citizens have won five of eight when excluding the top-four, and have won the xG battle in eight of 11 away days overall. The visitors are second to Arsenal across almost every available metric and should be well-capable of collecting a positive result - Man City to win and Under 4.5 Goals pay 1/1 - just three City road trips have seen 5+ goals.

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