Ranking all 24 EFL League Two clubs by how likely they are to get promoted | OneFootball

FLW have ranked all 24 League Two clubs in June 2026 by how likely they are to gain promotion by the end of 2026/27...

It's fair to say that League Two is rarely predictable, with it possibly being the hardest of the top four tiers of English football to get right. As ever, the 2026/27 campaign already looks set to be one of the most competitive in recent memory.

A number of traditionally bigger clubs remain in the division and will be targeting a return to League One, while recently relegated sides face the difficult task of adapting to life in the fourth tier. History shows that dropping down from League One does not automatically translate into a promotion challenge.

Many clubs find themselves stuck in the bottom half of League Two or even dragged into relegation battles. Meanwhile, the arrival of York City and Rochdale adds another fascinating dynamic. Both clubs enjoyed exceptional National League campaigns and will be hoping to follow the growing trend of promoted sides carrying momentum straight into the EFL.

Of course, plenty can change between now and the start of the season. Departures in the transfer window, managerial appointments, and pre-season form will all influence expectations. Recruitment will dictate things even further.

However, based on where things stand at present, these are the 24 League Two clubs ranked from least likely to most likely to secure promotion during the 2026/27 season in the month of June. Things will change in the coming weeks and months, but gut feeling right now cannot be ignored.

1 ? ? Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers look like a club transformed under Steve Evans. Winning eight and drawing one of their final nine matches provided genuine momentum heading into the summer, and few managers boast a stronger promotion record in the EFL as a whole. Despite a poor campaign overall, Rovers remain a sizeable club for the division and should be there or thereabouts in the promotion hunt.

2 ? ? York City

Fresh from a historic National League title-winning campaign, York City should arrive in League Two full of confidence. Promoted clubs frequently carry momentum into League Two and challenge immediately, while the Minstermen possess a squad capable of competing near the top end. Another season of progress looks highly likely and I'm backing them to go back-to-back.

3 ? ? Oldham Athletic

Oldham Athletic's trajectory under Micky Mellon is extremely encouraging. A brilliant finish to 2025/26 demonstrated what this squad is capable of, while the club's stature and support remain significant factors at this level. If they maintain their momentum over the summer, they could emerge as genuine automatic promotion contenders.

4 ? ? Chesterfield

Chesterfield started last season among the favourites and will likely be in that conversation again. However, successive play-off semi-final defeats raise questions about whether they can finally get over the line under Paul Cook. The quality is there, but converting potential into promotion is becoming the next challenge. I think they could fall just short again but they'll be in the mix.

5 ? ? Barnet

Barnet have adapted impressively to League Two following promotion and nearly reached the play-offs after an excellent second half of the campaign. The addition of Kabongo Tshimanga proved inspired, and there is still momentum behind the project. Another push towards the top seven feels entirely realistic, if not for automatic promotion.

6 ? ? Port Vale

Recently relegated sides rarely thrive immediately in League Two, but Port Vale appear the strongest of the clubs dropping down. Jon Brady has brought stability after a difficult period, with there also being enough quality within the squad to suggest they can challenge towards the top end rather than merely rebuild in mid-table.

7 ? ? Grimsby Town

Retaining David Artell should be a significant factor. With him, Grimsby Town will be viewed as automatic promotion contenders, but play-offs at the very least. There is enough quality within the squad, especially in attack, to remain competitive after a loss in the play-offs this year, although expectations may need to be tempered slightly.

8 ? ? Salford City

Salford City are rarely far away from the promotion conversation. Even with Karl Robinson departing, the club's resources and ambition should ensure they remain competitive as one of the moneybag teams. Consistency has often been their biggest issue, but another season in and around the play-off positions would not be a surprise.

9 ? ? Rochdale

Like York, it's good to have Rochdale back in the EFL. Also like York, they arrive after a remarkable National League campaign that delivered over 100 points. Promoted sides have a strong recent record of carrying momentum into League Two, but the loss of Jimmy McNulty to Stockport County is a big blow. That said, at the very least, a top-half finish feels achievable.

10 ? ? Rotherham United

Rotherham United's recent trajectory has been concerning, and successive disappointing seasons explain why expectations are relatively modest despite their relegation. However, they still possess the infrastructure and resources to compete comfortably in League Two. A top-half finish appears realistic, even if promotion may prove to be a step too far for the Millers.