Serie A’s “31 December rule”: does leading at year’s end win the title? | OneFootball

In traditional football language, it is often said that “championships are won in March.” Yet, by closely observing the recent trend in Serie A, an increasingly significant fact emerges: the standings as of December 31 are no longer just a provisional indication, but a real thermometer of title ambitions.

Serie A and the “December 31 Law”: Is being top at the end of the year really decisive for the Scudetto?

The so-called “December 31 Law” deserves an in-depth analysis today, because the trend of recent years tells a different story compared to the past.

Leaders at the end of the year and final victory: what the numbers say

Looking at the last 11 Serie A seasons, from 2014-15 to 2024-25, an apparently balanced statistic emerges: in 6 out of 11 cases, the team leading the table on New Year’s Eve went on to win the Scudetto, with a percentage around 55%.

Here’s the full picture:

2014-15: Juventus top at year-end → Juventus champion

2015-16: Inter top → Juventus champion

2016-17: Juventus top → Juventus champion

2017-18: Napoli top → Juventus champion

2018-19: Juventus top → Juventus champion

2019-20: Inter top → Juventus champion

2020-21: Milan top → Inter champion

2021-22: Inter top → Milan champion

2022-23: Napoli top → Napoli champion

2023-24: Inter top → Inter champion

2024-25: Napoli and Atalanta top → Napoli champion

If you look at the data as a whole, being top at the end of the year does not automatically guarantee the title. But the truly interesting element emerges when analyzing the cycles.

The “three-year illusion” (2019-2022)

Between 2019 and 2022, Serie A experienced an unusual, almost counter-intuitive phase. For three consecutive seasons, being top at the end of the year turned out to be a boomerang:

Inter 2019-20 (Conte): leaders in December, overtaken by Juventus in the second half of the season

Milan 2020-21 (Pioli): an extraordinary calendar year at the top, but the Scudetto went to Inter

Inter 2021-22 (Inzaghi): ahead at Christmas, overtaken by Milan

In that period, the winter leadership seemed more of a psychological burden than a competitive advantage. Changes in pace, environmental pressures, and drops in consistency overturned hierarchies that seemed established.

The reversal of the trend: the new winning consistency

From the 2022-23 season onwards, however, the script has changed radically. For three consecutive championships, the team leading at the end of the year has then confirmed its supremacy through to May:

Napoli 2022-23: constant dominance, championship clinched well in advance

Inter 2023-24: winter leadership turned into the second star

Napoli 2024-25: initial balance with Inter and Atalanta, then a decisive breakaway in the second half of the season

This phase marks a new maturity in Italian football, where consistency, squad depth, and pressure management seem to matter more than epic comebacks.

Does being top at Christmas matter more today?

The comparison between the two periods is clear:

Before 2022: being top at the end of the year was often not enough

Since 2022: the winter lead has become a strong indicator of final success

The data suggests that Serie A is increasingly rewarding organization, mental solidity, and technical stability, reducing the space for surprises and upsets.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.