Sheffield United, Leeds & Burnley Set For Historical Championship Title Battle: Who Will Prevail? | OneFootball

As we head into April, the Championship promotion race is reaching fever pitch, with Sheffield United holding a slender two-point advantage over Leeds United and Burnley.

Blades boss Chris Wilder has urged his players to embrace the challenge and enjoy the run-in, emphasising the importance of mentality in these decisive moments. “I’ve had the experience [of winning promotion] before, so to manage this group is a privilege and a pleasure and I’ve told them all along: they have to embrace and enjoy it,” Wilder said.

This season’s battle for the top spots is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in history. In fact, this is only the second time in the 122 seasons of second-tier football that three different teams have amassed at least 78 points from 38 games, based on three points for a win. The only other occurrence was last season, when Leicester City (82), Leeds United (82), and Ipswich Town (81) found themselves in a similarly intense title race.

For Leeds, memories of last season’s heartbreak remain fresh. Daniel Farke’s side finished third, despite being in the top two for virtually all of the season, missing out on an automatic promotion spot before ultimately losing to Southampton in the play-off final at Wembley. This time around, the Whites are desperate to avoid a repeat scenario. However, after conceding a last-minute equaliser against Swansea City last Saturday, their title chances took a significant hit.

Sheffield United, Leeds United and Burnley’s Chances of Winning the Championship

SHEFFIELD, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 12: Chris Wilder, manager of Sheffield United shows appreciation to the fans after the Sky Bet Championship match between Sheffield United FC and Middlesbrough FC on February 12, 2025 in Sheffield, England. (Photo by Molly Darlington/Getty Images)

According to Opta’s predicted league table, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining games, Leeds’ probability of winning the league has dropped from 61.7% to 36.6% following that result. Meanwhile, Sheffield United saw their chances of winning the title rise from 23.8% to 40.4% after Leeds dropped points.

Burnley aren’t out of the title picture either, as they sit on the same number of points as Leeds. The Clarets’ probability of winning the league increased from 14.5% to 23% following Leeds’ draw, keeping them firmly in contention for the top spot.

Despite that setback, Daniel Farke has publicly stated that the Whites will “100%” be in the Premier League next season, putting even more pressure on his players, which they’ve seemingly not handled well thus far. However, they can take solace in having the joint-easiest run-in among all Championship teams based on Opta. That being said, the Blades have the fourth-easiest run-in, while Burnley have the seventh-toughest run-in.

Sheffield United will look to hold their nerve at the top, knowing full well that any slip-up could see their advantage disappear in an instant. One thing that is definitely in Leeds’ favour is the fact that the Blades and the Clarets face each other in a few weeks time, meaning both can’t take maximum points from their remaining seven games.

Leeds United and Burnley are both involved in early kick-offs this coming Saturday; the Whites travel to Luton Town and Burnley head to Coventry City, so if either drop points then the Blades will be in prime position to take advantage against an out-of-form Oxford United later in the afternoon.