Shots Don’t Mean Sh•t in MLS | OneFootball

In sports, it generally follows that the more you do something, the better your result. Golf is an exception, but also not a real sport. 

Of course, not all actions are positive. Score more goals; you win the game. Earn more red cards, and you’re probably going to lose. Shots taken is one of those variables that appears positive, but doesn’t always translate. After all, if you’re taking more shots it implies greater threat, more possession, forward play, etc.

When Shots != Success

But when I reviewed MLS match data through the weekend, my assumption around shots was turned on its head. Of the six games where a team registered 26 or more shots, only one of them won. More curiously, three of the teams lost, with two of those games just played on Saturday.

Games with 26+ shots by one team, and the result. Source: author.

It’s no surprise to see this year’s wundersquad San Jose Earthquakes at the top of the list.

They recorded an insanely high 37 shots in their 5-1 whoopass of Austin FC; 24 of those in the second half. That’s a shot every 2m30s!

It is a surprise to see the Seattle Sounders there. Most of their season has been a masterclass in “haram ball” style play. Three of their six victories came from 1-0 scorelines where they averaged 0.78 xG, 43.7% possession and 6.7 shots per game. Of course, their opposition this weekend was Sporting Kansas City, whose defensive strategy appears to be predicated on allowing teams to shoot as often as they can. Goalkeeper Stefan Cleveland also came up big, making six saves to deny Seattle the “W”.

The other two anomalous fixtures from Saturday were Chicago’s defeat to FC Cincinnati and Inter Miami’s head-scratching capitulation to Orlando City.

Chicago Anomaly

Chicago’s 33 shots, the second highest season total, is easily explained: Cincy’s Kyle Smith was sent off in the 56th minute. Of course, the game was already tied 2-2 and had been a deliciously open contest up to that point, but with a man advantage Chicago could simply ratchet up the pressure.

They took 24 shots in the second half. Six of those were on target.

Look at the momentum graph. It’s all Fire, right up until Djé D’Avilla took down Pavel Bucha to give Cincy a PK. Evander converted, giving the visitors the win.

Chicago v. FC Cincy (Source: FotMob)

Miami’s Collapse

When a side is up 3-0 in the 35th minute, with arguably the world’s best player (Lionel Messi) on the pitch surrounded by the highest payroll in MLS, you expect a win. That didn’t happen Saturday against Orlando City.

You might remember back in Week 2 of the season, Miami was 2-0 down against the Lions in Orlando at halftime. The Herons emerged from the locker room, scored four and altered the trajectory of both teams. Orlando would go on to lose three of their next four, conceding 17 goals in the span. Miami remained unbeaten in league play until this match, though to be fair half their results were draws.

Orlando would score four goals, denying Miami their first win in their new NU Stadium over four ties. What stands out in all these games is that Miami outshot their opponents, often by 2x or even 3x. Two of these games were in our top six.

Takeaway

Wayne Gretzky once stated: “You miss 100% of shots you don’t take.” Wise words. But taking shots doesn’t guarantee victory.

Another old adage is: “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Shots taken is clearly in the last camp… a statistic that implies positivity, but in context doesn’t deliver on the promise. The teams above would testify to that.