Sky Sports expert gives verdict on Newcastle United ahead of Wembley – Interesting | OneFootball

The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.

The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and cup games, whilst he also debates other matters/issues at clubs as well.

However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.

The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game at Wembley.

Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could/should have a big bearing on this Liverpool v Newcastle game.

“My instincts initially wanted to get against Liverpool with them dominating the outright betting at just 3/10 with Sky Bet to lift the trophy. But a quick scan of Eddie Howe’s record with Newcastle against Liverpool and Manchester City completely put me off that idea. From 18 games against those two elite teams, Newcastle have won just once, losing 14 times and conceding 2.4 goals per game to a backdrop of 18.5 shots per game.

“I’m heading to the goals market instead then.

“Every time a final comes around at Wembley, I do think opposing goals at that stadium in that environment of high stakes is a sustainable long-term betting strategy. I’m convinced Wembley has the potential just to sap the momentum out of a game.

“In the last 41 domestic and European matches played at Wembley, the average goals per 90 stands at 1.94 goals in normal time over 41 games. And there’s only been four games where the goal line has gone over 3.5 from those 41 matches. An incredibly profitable trend to follow.

“Another piece of evidence to throw into the low-scoring theory for this match is related to how Premier League clubs have fared in their next game after being knocked out of the Champions League in extra-time or penalties. Exactly what Liverpool are facing here.

“And from the last nine occasions, eight of those nine matches went under 2.5 goals and the total match goals in those nine games averaged just 1.6 per 90.

“Yes, nine games is a very small sample size but I think it makes perfect sense that a team that have been both mentally and physically fatigued in a Champions League knockout game are going to feel the effects of that in their next game.

“Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 with Sky Bet it is then.

“Jones Knows’ best bet: Under 2.5 goals (5/4 with Sky Bet)”

Interesting analysis as always, from the Sky Sports expert.

Would you take it now, the match getting decided on penalties?

I can’t imagine what the nerves would be like…

Just to point out, the Sky Sports man also predicted Newcastle to lose at West Ham on Monday.

Hopefully he gets the double up today and NUFC prove him wrong once again.

I think if Bruno, Tonali and Joelinton can win the midfield battle, that can help give the platform and the chances for the Alexander Isak to potentially score the goals to win this game.

The remaining Newcastle United match schedule:

Sunday 16 March – Newcastle v Liverpool (4.30pm) Carabao Cup final Sky Sports

Wednesday 2 April – Newcastle v Brentford (7.45pm)

Monday 7 April – Leicester v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports

Sunday 13 April – Newcastle v Man U (4.30pm) Sky Sports

Wednesday 16 April – Newcastle v Palace (7.30pm)

Saturday 19 April – Villa v Newcastle (5.30pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 26 April – Newcastle v Ipswich (3pm)

Saturday 3 May – Brighton v Newcastle TBC