Sunday Football Tips: Jimmy The Punt's best bets including a 25/1 card treble | OneFootball

English Premier League

Jimmy The Punt tips a a few player cards on Super Sunday

Jimmy The Punt has six bets for Sunday's Premier League games via the Befair Sportsbook and Exchange including a 25/1 card punt...

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Crystal Palace vs Man City

Sunday, 14:00

Goals appeal at Selhurst Park.

In the Premier League on their own patch, Crystal Palace have netted in all bar two of their seven fixtures, failing to score against rivals Brighton (0.75 xG) and Sunderland (1.77 xG).

Oliver Glasner's side brushed Shelbourne aside on Thursday, allowing the big hitters to be withdrawn at half time.

Opponents Manchester City have become a bit of a soft touch recently (W3 D1 L3).

Fulham put four past them and Leeds scored twice within the last couple of weeks and on the road in the league, only Wolves and Brentford failed to score against Pep Guardiola's side.

Flimsy as head-to-head records may be, this fixtures tack-record for goals is worth mentioning. In the league, the last four meetings have seen a total of 21 goals, no fewer than four a match and an average of six goals a game.

Naturally, over 2.5 is worth a punt at 1.71 with the Exchange.

The Sportsbook also has the industry best price on both teams to score in both halves 10/1 which I wouldn't put any off.

I rather have a small play on over 5.5 goals at 11.5 on the Exchange though, a bet which has clicked in half of the last six league meetings and gone within a goal in all bar one of that sample.

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham

Sunday, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

Sean Dyche inherited a side which had only won once all season in all competitions (D3 L7) and despite fighting on multiple fronts, his side have only lost three times (W6 D2) under him.

He's improved them at both ends of the field. Under his tutelage, they've kept clean sheets in five of 11 games and netted 1.45 goals a game. Across their opening 11 games, Forest didn't keep a single clean sheet and averaged a goal a game.

Opponents Tottenham are unbeaten in three, scoring five in their last two without conceding a goal.

Xavi Simons is improving game-by-game (money well spent) but Thomas Frank still has a host of key players out of action.

Yves Bissouma, Dejan Kulusevski, James Maddison, Dominic Solanke and Destiny Udogie will miss this clash.

At the prices available, I'd be leaning towards the hosts but I'm going to sit this one out.

Sunderland vs Newcastle

Sunday, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

The first Premier League Tyne-Wear derby at the Stadium of Light in over a decade and it looks like a card punters paradise.

The pair last squared off in the FA Cup third round in January 2024. Same venue but Newcastle were a lot shorter that afternoon. They went off at 3/5 and cruised to a 3-0 victory. That said, there were still six cards that day and a lot has changed in the short time in between.

Sunderland are significantly better for one, they've got a new manager and a vastly different squad laced with European pedigree, potential and experience.

Regis Le Bris' tactical versatility is part of the reason the Black Cats have picked up points in 11 of 15 league games this season. They often go toe-to-toe with the division's big boys and are unbeaten at home (W4 D3).

People will rightly point towards an overperformance in underlying data, Sunderland actually sit 18th on the expected-points table, but the eye-test offsets any suggestion of unsustainable fortune.

Sunday's hosts head into the weekend a point and three places better off than their rivals and have only lost one of the last 10 derbies.

Then you factor in Newcastle's bad away form in the Premier League (W1 D3 L3) and busy European schedule and I think there's a lot to like about the 2.00 for Sunderland +0.25 on the Asian handicap.

Back to cards though. The last six meetings have seen 32Y and 1R cards dished out, Betfair has over 4.5 cards priced at 4/7 and the referee is a good appointment. Considering all this, I think it is worth chucking a few arrows at the player card market.

Peter Banks has averaged four cards a came in the top flight this season but dished out eight on two occasions.

At 3/1, Nordi Mukiele's price to be carded appeals. Across his career, he has a card per 90 average of 0.16 which makes this price too short. Across the last three seasons he has averaged 0.25 cards per 90 which makes this price apt without considering the occasion or his direct opponent.

Anthony Gordon started six league games on the left, drawing 3/3/2/2/1/1 fouls and cards from two direct opponents.

I don't think there's any reason to be too cute with the other picks. Bruno Giumaraes is 2/1 with the Sportsbook. He is Newcastle's skipper, most carded player (3) and most fouled player (2.7 per game).

He'll be in the thick of the action and directly opposing Granit Xhaka. AKA Sunderland's captain and most carded player (4).

Throwing the pair alongside Mukiele pays out at 25/1 which is the best price in the industry.

West Ham vs Aston Villa

Sunday, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

Aston Villa have won their last eight games on the spin and won all but two of their last 16 (W14).

In their last league outing, they beat Arsenal with a last gasp strike to move within three points of the top of the table.

Don't get carried away though Villans, have you seen the underlying data? It has Unai Emery's side fifth from bottom on expected-points, only two better off then Wolves.

West Ham have only lost one of their last five (2-0 at Liverpool) and are clearly improving under Nuno Espirito Santo.

No bets for this clash though.

Brentford vs Leeds

Sunday, 16:30Live on Sky Sports

A little under a fortnight ago, Leeds went to the Etihad having only won one of their previous seven games.

There was growing unrest surrounding Daniel Farke's tactics, the players he was starting and his in-game and squad management.

Basically, he was picking the wrong XI, telling that XI to play the wrong way and not changing things quick enough when it was inevitably going wrong.

By half time Manchester City were two goals to the good and it looked like Farke was on borrowed time. Off go Daniel James and Wilfried Gnonto, on comes Jaka Bijol and Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Leeds go more direct and the game is level before the 70th minute.

Phil Foden nicked it in injury time but it was something to build on for Leeds. In the following midweek Farke went direct again, played all the big summer imports and his side beat Chelsea 3-1.

Leeds then welcomed Liverpool last Saturday, came from behind twice and snatched a point deep into stoppage time.

So, in three games against Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool, Leeds have more than held their own.

Across that sample, the games have seen 15 goals or five a game and at 1.93 with the Exchange, over 2.5 goals appeals here.

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