The little-known World Cup rule change that could see US win group before final game | OneFootball

The World Cup 2026 is into the second round of group stage fixtures, with sides including England, Germany and France well-placed to put a foot in the round of 32 over the coming days.

Co-hosts Mexico became the first team to advance into the last 32 after their win over South Korea, and that 1-0 victory means El Tri have will finish top of Group A.

Despite the fact that their opponents could finish with a better goal difference, Mexico have secured top spot in Group A thanks to a subtle change in group stage rules that is new for this World Cup.

For the first time ever, the tournament is using head-to-head records – rather than goal difference – as a tiebreaker for teams who are level on points in the groups.

This means the USA could be next to top their group if Turkey fail to beat Paraguay in the early hours of Saturday morning, after following up their opening win over the South American nation by convincingly beating Australia.

This new rule is sure to influence the eventual round of 32 fixtures, so here’s more information on how it could affect the final group stage games.

What is Fifa’s new head-to-head rule?

Essentially, the new rule means that a team’s head-to-head record against another team is the first thing to separate teams who are level on points. This is the same as the system used in Uefa competitions.

Goal difference is then used as the next differentiator, with the total number of goals scored in all group matches then considered before the highest “team conduct” score, which takes into account the total record of yellow and red cards.

Interestingly, if two teams still can’t be separated after all these criteria, then the team that is ranked higher “according to the most recent published edition of the Fifa/Coca‑Cola Men’s World Ranking” will go through.

In terms of tie-breaking criteria for the group stages, Fifa’s official website reads that the following criteria – in the same order as below – will be used to determine group rankings:

How does the head-to-head rule apply to Mexico?

For a team to secure top spot in a group after just two games, a group either needs to have two draws or for the team in first place to have beaten any team(s) on three points.

Mexico have won both of their opening games, and they now sit three points clear of second-placed South Korea. However, they cannot be overtaken as they beat South Korea 1-0 in the game between the two nations.

The new rule means that England will top Group L if they beat Ghana and Panama fail to beat Croatia (Reuters)

How can the rule affect other teams?

The fact that some teams can secure top spot after just two games comes with both advantages and disadvantages for the other teams in the group depending on how they’ve performed so far.

In Mexico’s example, El Tri could opt to rest their entire starting XI, so the Czech Republic – who currently sit in third, two points behind South Korea – could benefit, leaving South Korea needing to beat South Africa to be certain of second place.

As mentioned, the US could secure top spot if Turkey fail to beat Paraguay, while Germany could win their group if they beat the Ivory Coast and Ecuador don’t beat Curacao.

Sweden can qualify as group winners if they beat the Netherlands and Japan don’t win against Tunisia, while Lionel Messi and Argentina can top their group if they beat Austria and Algeria fail to beat Jordan.

Finally, Thomas Tuchel’s England can ensure they qualify top of Group L if they beat Ghana and Panama fail to beat Croatia.