The real reason why England must top their World Cup group | OneFootball

If the first few days of the 2026 World Cup have taught us anything, it is that predicting how the tournament will pan out makes fools of us all. Cape Verde were not meant to shut out Spain, many people’s favourites. Australia were not meant to beat a talented Turkey. Morocco were not meant to match the might of Brazil.

We can try, of course. Theoretically, there should be a material benefit in topping each group. Group winners will be rewarded in one of two ways by Fifa’s new 48-team format: either they will get to play one of the eight third-placed finishers in the round of the 32; or they will meet a second-placed finisher but then avoid facing any other group winners until the quarter-finals at the earliest.

For England – on paper, at least – winning Group L would seem advantageous in progressing deep into the tournament. They would be paired with one of the third-placed finishers in the round of 32, teams who are likely to have picked up only three or four points during the group stage.

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England captain Harry Kane, right, with vice-captain Declan Rice (Reuters)

Finishing runners-up in Group L would schedule a meeting with the runners-up of Group K. Again, these predictions are a guessing game, but England’s most likely opponents would then be Colombia or Portugal, both of whom would surely be a tougher assignment than a third-placed team.

The round of 16 is likely to be tricky whoever England face, should they get that far. This World Cup has already displayed a depth of quality that extends well beyond the traditional six or seven heavyweights from Europe and South America. Sides like Japan, Ivory Coast, Ecuador and Sweden have already shown signs they could be competitive when they come up against the elites.

Even so, England might prefer topping the group and, potentially, a testing trip to face Mexico in Mexico City over the forecasted meeting with European champions Spain should they finish runners-up. Winning Group L should, in theory, mean avoiding both Spain and France until the final.

The nature of the format makes it almost impossible to predict a route through the knockout stages should England finish third in Group L, but we can assume they are probably not going far if they finish below two of Croatia, Ghana and Panama anyway, so let’s not go there.

But as England prepare to meet Croatia in Dallas on Wednesday, perhaps the most significant motivation to top the group should be geographical.

The road to the final for Group L’s winner takes them to Atlanta, Mexico City, Miami, Atlanta again, and New Jersey for the final. Bar the jaunt to Mexico, the other four knockout games would all be in the same Eastern time zone.

Thomas Tuchel views the avoidance of bouncing between time zones as a critical part of optimising England’s performance, and it is why the Football Association chose to locate the team’s World Cup training base in Kansas City, close to the centre-point of this World Cup’s enormous scope. No World Cup venue is more than a four-hour flight from Kansas City, or more than two hours’ time difference from the camp.

England may have to give up their training base when the knockout rounds come around. Gaps between knockout games will be only four to six days, and Fifa requires that teams arrive in the host city at least two days before each knockout match, rather than the one-day requirement during the group stage, to fulfil increased media duties.

That is likely to mean flying directly from the host city of one knockout round to the next. And here there is a clear advantage to finishing top of the group, where England’s total travel distance would be around 4,600 miles during the knockout stages, compared to 5,900 miles if they were to finish runners-up.

That difference is mainly because the path for Group L’s runners-up involves a quarter-final over on the west coast in Los Angeles. The long trip to and from LA would negatively impact recovery time, with only four days either side of the fixture, and would involve a time zone shift: LA is two hours behind the scheduled semi-final venue in Dallas, and three hours behind New Jersey where the final will be held.

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Thomas Tuchel directs his England players during training at their Kansas City base (Getty)

World Cup history points to the challenges of extensive air travel. During USA ‘94, Sweden played games in California, Michigan, Texas and then returned to California to earn their place in the semi-finals against Brazil in Los Angeles. But they had only two days to recover and prepare after playing 120 minutes against Romania in the quarter-finals, and they were exhausted.

“We had one day less to recover [than Brazil] and some of the players were not at 100 per cent,” forward Kennet Andersson later said. “We were not in the same condition as we had been in the group stage.”

There are other reasons to top the group. The winner takes momentum and confidence into the knockout rounds. They quieten any outside noise. Wins over Croatia and Ghana might also provide Tuchel a valuable opportunity to rest key players and rotate his team for the final group game against Panama, which would benefit both his players’ condition and wider squad harmony by sharing minutes around.

But above all, if England have serious designs on winning this World Cup, they must try to avoid an unwanted trip to Los Angeles. Predicting the opponents en route to the final might be an impossible task, but the physical route is already mapped out, and one road is more kind than the other.