Three from Three: Southampton’s Perfect Week – Analysis and Takeaways | OneFootball

It’s been a pivotal week for Southampton Football Club. 

Progressing past Premier League leaders Arsenal into the FA Cup semi-final, alongside defeating two promotion rivals, is nothing short of perfect.

The Saints have made it six wins from their last six outings. Has this week potentially defined their season, and what have we learnt about England’s most in-form side?

Why was this week important?

If a side has capable squad depth, a cup run can do wonders for confidence and belief. Beating the likes of Fulham beforehand, the Saints were rightly up for the occasion against Arsenal.

It was a chance to make history.

Fifty years have passed since Southampton won the FA Cup, as evidenced by their wearing an anniversary shirt throughout the tournament. A perfectly executed plan by Head Coach Tonda Eckert and his men meant Southampton edged it 2-1 to keep their cup hopes alive.

With just three days’ separation, the Saints were set to face promotion rivals Wrexham and Derby. These were effectively six pointers. Games that could cement a team in the playoff race or just as easily drag them out of it.

What Have We Learned?

Southampton’s Efficiency & Overcoming Conceded Goals

All three fixtures saw the Saints concede.

Previously, the Saints would often drop their heads, sit back, and allow opposition pressure to build. These past seven days have shown significant progress.

A graph showing Southampton’s conceded goals in the first 13 games of the season (under Will Still) and the previous 13 games (under Tonda Eckert). It highlights the stark contrast of defensive organisation between the two, with Eckert’s side now conceding less than one goal per game — an indication of the Saints’ improvement.

As Arsenal tied the game 1-1, it would’ve been easy for Southampton to capitulate, given the quality of the opposition. However, it was the opposite. The South Coast outfit maintained composure and deservedly snatched the winner in the final stages of the game.

They outworked the Gunners, pressing until the last whistle. Mikel Arteta praised his opposition, saying, “I congratulate them; I think they are a really good side; it’s not a coincidence among the run they’re in. And as I said, they were far more efficient than us when it mattered most, and that’s why they are at Wembley – so I wish them the best.”

Southampton consistently bypassed Wrexham’s press, demonstrating clear control in possession, scoring two goals in under 25 minutes with a sense of control unseen at the Racecourse this season.

Despite striker Josh Windass pulling one back eleven minutes later, the Saints were able to grind out their 2-1 lead until the end of the first half. Arteta mentioned Southampton’s ‘efficiency when it mattered most’, which Cyle Larin illustrated against the Red Dragons when he capitalised on a misplaced pass to make it 3-1.

A graph showing a comparison of Expected Goals (xG) and Goals in the opening 13 games and previous 13 games. It clearly demonstrates Southampton’s newfound efficiency in front of goal, scoring 17 more goals, despite accumulating the same xG in both periods.

Wrexham had grown into the game, though. Southampton were able to weather the storm, which laid the foundations for them to grab the fourth and fifth goals.

Manager Phil Parkinson said, “We were in a good position, in terms of possession, in the top third of the pitch when we gave the ball away for the third goal. And that’s the goal which really knocked the stuffing out of us. If you present players of the qualities they’ve got with those chances, the ball’s going to end up in the back of the net.”

Derby’s Unique Threat

Fellow promotion rivals Derby travelled to St Mary’s on Saturday and posed a significant threat. They had a game plan: sit deep, soak up the pressure and utilise transitions. However, that was when the Saints were in their defensive and midfield thirds.

When Southampton built from the back, Derby adopted a high man-to-man press, aiming to suffocate them in the initial phases. It was effective, as they limited the South Coast outfit to zero big chances and less xG than the Rams in the first half.

A visual showing Derby’s high man-to-man press. Their aim was to limit space and time on the ball for the defenders to prevent them from finding an outlet in space. Most notably when either Ross Stewart or Finn Azaz drop deeper to turn and progress play. It was highly effective in the first half as Southampton dominated the ball, meaning Derby could press them further up the pitch and drop deeper into a low block if Southampton bypass their initial press.

Striker Carlton Morris found himself at the back post to give Derby the lead – the only time Southampton have conceded first since their away draw with West Brom in March.

It was a unique position, given that Southampton haven’t won from a losing position since the opening day of the season against Wrexham.

In the second half, there was a dramatic change in possession. Despite dominating in the first half (66%), they had amassed just 2 shots on target. Eckert’s side has often found success with less possession, as the profiles of players like Leo Scienza and Tom Fellows flourish on the transition.

The Rams had accumulated a mere 0.15 xG. While having significantly more possession in the second half, they struggled to break down Southampton, who found far more success. Scienza’s opening goal emphasised this, as Caspar Jander turned over possession, leading to Scienza being one-on-one on the left flank, catching Derby on the counter.

A visual showing Southampton catching Derby on the transition. The Saints have succeeded in finding Leo Scienza in space and isolated with the opposition fullback.

Not long after, a precise set-piece from Ryan Manning found Harwood-Bellis, who converted his sixth goal of the campaign to make it 2-1. He starts off at the far edge of the box and covertly sneaks past defenders to find himself unmarked for the winner.

Mentality Shift

Under Tonda Eckert, the focus remains on the next game. It’s a mentality that’s guided them throughout their 17-game unbeaten run.

External pressure circulates regarding the possibility of automatic promotion, but Eckert’s stance is clear. He said after the Derby clash, “I think that’s more a question for supporters and media. I know that this is coming up, but for me, no matter what I answer, it doesn’t make a difference. We need to keep our heads down; we need to keep working.”

With Southampton winning their last six matches, they’re finding their stride at the critical time of the season. A winning mentality is crucial, especially if they remain in the playoffs come the end of the season.

Players have taken on this mentality shift also. A notable example has been Taylor Harwood-Bellis. His rise to a leadership position in the squad has been evident. One of the first names on the team sheet, pivotal in both boxes, and consistent defensive displays show how far he has come this season.

After another brilliant performance against Derby, he said, “You wouldn’t know it’s a 17-game unbeaten run just by how level-headed everyone is. It’s done now; great. Onto the next one is the mentality, and it’s working. You have to be like that, and any successful team I’ve been part of, it’s been the same.”

Squad Flexibility

The January transfer window has directly contributed towards Southampton’s surge up the table. Crucial reinforcements, such as striker Cyle Larin and goalkeeper Daniel Peretz, have played critical parts. Larin has already amassed five goal contributions, while Peretz’s arrival has already spearheaded six clean sheets and just 0.80 goals conceded per 90.

Further additions include the introductions of Kuryu Matsuki, Sam Edozie and James Bree – players who were discarded before Eckert’s arrival, with their careers on the south coast having been revitalised since the new year. Matsuki and Edozie provide energetic options on the flanks, while Bree has been a staple in the starting lineup.

His first game was a start against Portsmouth. The belief in him from the start by Eckert has likely been pivotal, as he’s played his best games in a Southampton shirt during the latter half of this season.

Just this past week, Southampton made a total of 10 changes in their lineups across the three fixtures. Being able to completely change the midfield and attack, while maintaining a winning outcome, has proven that squad depth is pivotal to achieving success.

Eckert has been able to find a balance between resting players and maintaining a strong core of the lineup. He said, “It comes back to humility towards the opponent and the team. It needs to be competitive; to have this many players able to perform is a good sign. There are minutes that we also need to split. I think we’re in a good place.”

Conclusion

Has this week defined Southampton’s season? It may be too early to say definitively, but it has certainly shown what they’re capable of achieving.

Efficiency in key moments, resilience under pressure, and a squad capable of adapting to different challenges – these are traits that define successful sides at the business end of a season. Whether it results in promotion or silverware remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: Southampton are currently a team with belief, structure, and momentum at exactly the perfect time.