United States vs Paraguay Prediction: World Cup 2026 Preview & Best Bets | OneFootball

World Cup 2026 Group D, Matchday 2 Date: Saturday, 13 June 2026 Kick-off: 18:00 local (01:00 BST Sunday 14 June) Venue: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles (Inglewood), USA TV/Streaming (UK): ITV / BBC

Parimatch

5.0

Welcome Bonus

Sports Welcome Offer Bet and Get for a £20 Free Bet

BET NOW

What’s At Stake

Both sides arrive at SoFi Stadium knowing that a positive result in Matchday 2 could prove decisive in deciding who advances from Group D. The United States, playing in front of a home crowd, will be expected to press for three points to underline their status as one of the tournament’s host nations, while Paraguay, making their first World Cup appearance since 2010, will be acutely aware that a defeat here makes progression extremely difficult. The group dynamic means there is little margin for error for either side.

Verdict

The United States are the logical pick to win this fixture at evens, with home advantage at SoFi Stadium, a more settled squad and a recent head-to-head victory over Paraguay adding weight to the case. A United States win at 1/1 is fair value given the host advantage, Paraguay’s limited attacking output and the significance of the occasion for Mauricio Pochettino’s side.

United States vs Paraguay Match Preview

The United States open as favourites in a fixture carrying enormous weight for the host nation. Pochettino’s side have been building towards this moment since his appointment in August 2024, and the pressure of a home World Cup brings both motivation and scrutiny in equal measure. A settled, experienced core around Christian Pulisic, Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie is expected to set the tempo, with Paraguay tasked with disrupting that rhythm through disciplined structure.

Paraguay, under Gustavo Alfaro, arrive as compact, defensively organised opponents rather than free-flowing attackers. Their route through CONMEBOL qualifying was measured and tight, conceding only three goals in their last six qualifying matches, and Alfaro’s pragmatic approach is likely to produce a deep defensive block designed to frustrate the United States and exploit any space on the counter-attack. Miguel Almirón’s movement and Julio Enciso’s directness from forward positions represent their clearest threats going forward.

The game is likely to be decided by the United States’ ability to break down an organised Paraguayan shape. If Pochettino’s high-press system functions as intended, chances should materialise for Pulisic, Folarin Balogun and Ricardo Pepi. However, Paraguay’s experience in low-scoring qualifying contests suggests they will not be opened up easily, and a narrow winning margin is the most plausible outcome.

Team Form

United States – Last 5 – Portugal (H): Lost 0-2 (Friendly) – Belgium (H): Lost 2-5 (Friendly) – Uruguay (H): Won 5-1 (Friendly) – Paraguay (H): Won 2-1 (Friendly) – Australia (H): Won 2-1 (Friendly)

The United States’ recent form is uneven. The March 2026 friendlies against Portugal and Belgium exposed defensive vulnerabilities at the highest level, but the late-2025 run that included wins over Paraguay, Uruguay and Australia showed the attacking potential of this squad when functioning properly. The losses to Portugal and Belgium came against top-ten European opposition, so the context matters, though the 5-2 defeat to Belgium will concern Pochettino heading into the tournament.

Paraguay – Last 5 – Morocco (N): Lost 1-2 (Friendly) – Greece (A): Won 1-0 (Friendly) – Mexico (N): Won 2-1 (Friendly) – United States (A): Lost 1-2 (Friendly) – South Korea (A): Lost 0-2 (Friendly)

Paraguay’s recent form reflects a side that can hold their own in tight matches but struggles to impose themselves on stronger opponents away from home. The win over Greece and the notable victory over Mexico in November 2025 demonstrate a capacity to produce results when organised, but consecutive losses to South Korea and the United States in 2025 point to limitations against press-heavy, athletic sides, which is precisely what they face here.

United States vs Paraguay Head To Head

These two sides have met nine times in total, with the United States holding a clear advantage in the all-time record. The last five competitive and friendly meetings tell a consistent story.

United States 2-1 Paraguay — Friendly, November 2025 United States 1-0 Paraguay — Friendly, March 2018 United States 1-0 Paraguay — Copa America, June 2016 United States 0-1 Paraguay — Friendly, March 2011 United States 1-3 Paraguay — Copa America, July 2007

The United States have won three of the last five meetings, including both Copa America encounters and the most recent friendly in November 2025. Paraguay’s only wins in recent history came in 2011 and the 2007 Copa America, and the last three meetings have all gone the way of the United States. That November 2025 result is particularly relevant given the overlap in squad personnel heading into the World Cup.

Team News

The United States have no confirmed injury absences from their announced squad heading into Matchday 2. The squad announced by Pochettino includes the full complement of key players, with Christian Pulisic fit and available alongside midfield leaders Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie. The only question marks surround tactical selection rather than availability, with competition for places in midfield and attack giving Pochettino multiple options.

Paraguay similarly have their full squad available for the Group D fixture. Gustavo Gómez is fit and expected to captain the side from central defence, while Julio Enciso and Miguel Almirón are available in attacking positions. Antonio Sanabria is expected to lead the line as the primary centre-forward. Alfaro has no reported suspensions entering this match.

Both squads were formally announced ahead of the tournament, and there are no reported late injuries or fitness concerns from either camp at the time of writing.

Predicted Lineups

United States Predicted XI (4-3-3): Turner; Dest, C. Richards, A. Robinson, McKenzie; T. Adams (c), McKennie, Tillman; Weah, Pepi, Pulisic

Paraguay Predicted XI (4-4-2): Gatito Fernandez; J.J. Caceres, G. Gomez (c), Junior Alonso, Alderete; Sosa, A. Cubas, D. Gomez, Almirón; Enciso, Sanabria

Predicted XIs based on available squad information. Squads to be confirmed by coaching staff ahead of kick-off.

Key Tactical Matchup

The central contest is likely to be Pochettino’s high-press midfield unit against Paraguay’s organised mid-block. Tyler Adams, with 54 caps at Bournemouth, anchors the press and screens the back line, while Weston McKennie’s box-to-box range adds a second wave of pressure. Against this, Alfaro will ask Andrés Cubas and Diego Gómez to absorb pressure and recycle possession quickly, releasing Almirón in transition. If Adams and McKennie can limit Paraguay’s time on the ball through the centre, the attacking line of Pulisic, Pepi and Weah should have space to exploit in behind a back four that conceded three goals in six CONMEBOL qualifying games.

Best Bets

Betfred

5.0

Welcome Bonus

Bet and Get New Bettor Bonus of £50 in Free Bets

BET NOW

Highbet

4.9

Welcome Bonus

Bet £10 and Get a £20 Free Bet

BET NOW

Parimatch

4.8

Welcome Bonus

Sports Welcome Offer Bet and Get for a £20 Free Bet

BET NOW

Main Pick: United States to Win @ 1/1 The United States have home advantage at SoFi Stadium, a settled squad under Pochettino, and a recent victory over this exact Paraguay side in November 2025. Paraguay’s low scoring record in qualifying and Copa America form suggests they will struggle to find a goal against a pressing United States outfit, making the hosts the value selection at evens.

Goals Market: Under 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 The best available price on under 2 goals is 6/5. Paraguay’s qualifying record of six goals scored across six matches, combined with their preference for defensive structure, points towards a low-scoring contest. Three of Paraguay’s five most recent matches have produced two goals or fewer, and the United States’ own results against compact opposition suggest this is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair.

Scorer Market: Christian Pulisic to Score Anytime Pulisic enters this tournament as the United States’ leading attacking reference with 33 goals in 86 caps and is the focal point of Pochettino’s attacking system. Against a deep block, his ability to arrive in behind from a wider starting position makes him the most likely source of the decisive goal. Check best available prices with leading operators.

Bet Builder: United States to Win and Under 3.5 Goals Given Paraguay’s defensive approach and the United States’ expected dominance without necessarily opening up the game, a narrow home win in a controlled match fits the profile of this fixture based on the head-to-head record and both sides’ recent form patterns.

Odds Across Operators

The following prices reflect the best available odds from leading operators at the time of writing. Odds are subject to change ahead of kick-off.

United States Win — 1/1 Draw — 5/2 Paraguay Win — 10/3 Over 2 Goals — 4/6 Under 2 Goals — 6/5

Prices sourced from 11 operators (match result) and 4 operators (totals). Always compare across leading operators for the best available price.

How to Watch and How to Bet

How to Watch

United States vs Paraguay is available to watch free-to-air in the United Kingdom on ITV and BBC, both of which hold World Cup 2026 broadcast rights. The match kicks off at 01:00 BST on Sunday 14 June, with coverage also available via ITVX and BBC iPlayer for those watching online or on mobile.

How to Bet

If you want to back one of the selections above, here is a straightforward step-by-step process for placing a bet on this fixture with a leading operator.

Responsible Gambling

Gambling should always be approached as entertainment, not as a source of income. If you are concerned about your gambling habits or those of someone you know, free and confidential support is available. In the UK, contact BeGambleAware or call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (free, 24/7). You can also visit GamCare for advice, support and counselling. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only.