U.S. Open Cup Final Will Be The Sam Surridge Show | OneFootball

Tuesday, September 30 @ 8:00pm ETQ2 Stadium, Austin, TXBroadcast nationally on CBS Sports Network & Streaming on Paramount +

Source: X

The image says it all: we will have a new club to add to the pantheon of previous U.S. Open Cup champions. That’s a very cool thing.

Here’s why it be Nashville: Sam Surridge

The 27-year old striker from Slough, England and Bournemouth academy product is having one hell of a season with Nashville SC. For a few weeks he was leading the MLS Golden Boot race, and only recently was pipped by Lionel Messi and Denis Bouanga. He has 22 league goals in 31 matches, but also has five goals in his two Open Cup appearances.

Surridge will be the largest factor in determining whether Nashville wins. Think that’s hyperbole? He scores a goal every 80 minutes. So he, statistically, should get at least one tonight. He’s also responsible for 40% of Nashville’s scores. When you’re that hot, it puts that pressure on.

But let’s not dismiss his supporting cast. Hany Mukhtar has 16g/7a in MLS league, but has yet to make an impact in the U.S. Open. Nashville isn’t filled defensive with superstars, but five of them appear in the HDI Top 100, and that’s not shabby. If they can keep their lines tight, and allow Surridge and Mukhtar to get hot it will be a long night for Austin.

Here’s why it will be Austin: It won’t

Okay, that’s a hot take but there’s a strong dose of reality there. Austin has had some moments of great soccer, but just as many moments of head-scratching awfulness. In between there’s been a LOT of mediocrity. Two things going for them: 1) a strong team identity, 2) home field advantage.

The first will really be tested tonight, because defensively they are porous. They concede 1.5 goals per game, and over this season have a -0.2 balance on goals scored vs. allowed. That’s not promising. Seven of their eleven losses have been by two or more goals, so if they allow Nashville to score, it’s very likely that will lead to multiples.

The second is really their best home. They’ve only lost at home twice this season, with seven wins and draws. Of course, there will have to be a winner tonight, but the green crowd at the Q2 will help with that.

The Hooligan Take

This will be a 3 – 1 victory for Nashville. Sam Surridge will score twice.