What do Baldini’s Italy U21 need to qualify for Euros? | OneFootball

Silvio Baldini’s Italy U21 side head into their final Group E fixture knowing one match decides everything.

Italy sit second on 24 points, three behind Poland, after Cisse’s late winner in Armenia. The two meet on the final matchday, and only a win gives the Azzurrini top spot, but not just any win, as noted by Tuttosport.

EMPOLI, ITALY – MARCH 26: Jeff Ekhator of Italy U21 celebrates after scoring the team’s third goal with Michael Kayode and Luca Kaleosho during the UEFA Under 21 EURO Qualifier match between Italy U21 and North Macedonia U21 at Stadio Carlo Castellani on March 26, 2026 in Empoli, Italy. (Photo by Gabriele Maltinti/Getty Images)

Why a one-goal victory isn’t enough for Italy U21

Poland won the reverse fixture 2-1 in November 2025, and UEFA separates teams level on points by head-to-head results first. A one-goal Italy win would leave the mini-table tied, at which point overall goal difference applies, and Poland would still be ahead, 23 to 22.

Italy therefore need to win by two clear goals.

Both sides are already guaranteed the top two places, so a Poland win or draw leaves Italy second. That is not fatal. The best runner-up across the nine groups qualifies directly, with the other eight going into November play-offs for the last four spots.

Italy currently sit second in that standing on 24 points, level with Greece but marginally worse on goal difference. Results against each group’s bottom side are excluded from the calculation, so the picture will shift.

The finals are in Albania and Serbia from 16 June to 3 July 2027.