Who can ACTUALLY win the World Cup? | OneFootball

With the World Cup only days away, I wanted to take a look at the teams who actually have a shot here. In an expanded field where 8 out of the 12 groups will see 3 teams advance, surely the field is more wide open than ever, right?

Wrong. There’s still only a handful of teams that have the potential to lift the trophy. So let’s dive in to see who can actually win this thing.

This story consists of three parts, all of which are linked:

We’re Just Happy To Be Here

It’s an incredible thing for a nation to make a World Cup. The joy of having a tangible investment in our planet’s greatest sporting event is second-to-none. With an expanded field we will see several nations making their debut appearance at the tournament: Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan.

Congratulations. You can’t win it.

Neither can: Haiti, Iraq, New Zealand, Panama, Saudi Arabia, or Qatar.

A Snowball’s Chance In Hell

Let’s get these out of the way. The following teams all have odds of 150-1 or more (except the USA at 50-1. Insane.) according to the bookies, and will not win the tournament.

My apologies to: South Africa, DR Congo, Iran, Australia, Tunisia, South Korea, Algeria, Ghana, Czechia, Egypt, Ivory Coast, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Scotland, Sweden, Paraguay, Canada, and the United States.

Of course it’s a knockout tournament and anything can happen. But according to the bookies (and myself) there’s just not enough about any of these teams to sustain a run through the group stages and all of the knockouts to win the damn thing. Some (if not all) of these teams could cause major problems for the big favorites and pull one or two stunning upsets, but I don’t think they can sustain it.

A quick word about the United States: As an American I feel the need to tell you: this team is not good enough to win the World Cup. Anyone telling you differently is lying to you for clicks. Sure, have fun, go nuts, believe like hell. It just ain’t gonna happen. (Doesn’t mean it won’t be fun!)

You need to advance from 3 group stage matches and then win 5 matches in a row to lift the Cup. So who actually CAN do it?

The Long Shots

Türkiye, Croatia, Ecuador, Uruguay, Mexico, Austria, and Switzerland.

All of these teams have odds of 100-1 or shorter except for Austria (150-1). So how could they do it? And why might they not?

Türkiye (+8000)

How they’ll win: Their wonderkid frontline of Arda Güler, Kenan Yıldız, and Can Uzun coalesce into one of the fiercest attacks in the world. Pouring in goals and assists that take the world by storm, these three, all 21 years old or younger rise to the occasion.

Yıldız has been handed the keys to Juventus’s attack and has been practically their entire offense this season. Arda Güler has become a staple for Real Madrid, and Can Uzun has shown brilliant flashes for Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League and Bundesliga this season. Their frontline could be enough to send them on a miracle run to the title.

Why they’ll lose:Unfortunately the team might be brilliant going forward, but lacks any reliability in defense. They might score 3, but against the likes of France, they’ll concede 5.

Croatia (+8000)

How they’ll win:Talisman and legend Luka Modrić catches fire and propels the tiny nation to a second World Cup final in three tournaments. They win it on the final day with a goal by Perisić with an assist for Modrić.

Why they’ll lose:There’s only 8 games, but in the knockouts they happen every 3 days. It’s just too intense of a tournament for an aging squad.

Ecuador (+10000)

How they’ll win:A phenomenal defense led by PSG’s Willian Pacho, Arsenal’s Piero Hincapié, and holding midfielder Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo absolutely lock down opposing attacks. Veteran Enner Valencia wins the golden boot, scoring just enough to have Ecuador lift the first World Cup Trophy in their history.

Why they’ll lose:The defense is actually world class. The attack? Not so much. It’s hard to see this team scoring enough goals to actually win games.

Uruguay (+6600)

How they’ll win:Marcelo Bielsa’s side catches fire and plays with a team unity and grit unrivaled in the tournament. Fede Valverde wins the golden ball and carries his country to their third World Cup victory.

Why they’ll lose:Bielsa’s sides often catch teams off-guard when they first meet with their relentless pressure and pace. But with all eyes on this tournament, the big boys won’t be caught sleeping and have the superior talent if Uruguay really want to play a basketball game.

Mexico (+8000)

How they’ll win:As a co-host nation, they’re able to ride the home team vibes. Raul Jiménez goes supernova and wins the golden boot. Memo Ochoa ages like fine wine and stands on his head making incredible saves. With a lucky draw and injuries to opposing superstars, they’re able to win their first World Cup in their own backyard.

Why they’ll lose:There’s just not enough talent in this squad to compete against the major powerhouses, I’m sorry to say. But the vibes on a deep run from Mexico as a co-host nation would be unparalleled.

Austria (+15000)

How they’ll win:A great balance of experienced veterans and athletic youngsters coalesces into a team with unparalleled chemistry. Manager Ralf Ragnick’s intense pressing system shocks teams and forces them to play to Austria’s strengths.

Why they’ll lose:Playing a high intensity high pressing style is great against teams with lesser talent. But playing that way against the likes of Spain will get you burned. Still, this team is flying under the radar and will absolutely be a handful for any team they face.

Switzerland (+8000)

How they’ll win:Winning one of the easiest groups in recent World Cup memory (Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar) leads to a cupcake knockout path. Captain Granit Xhaka’s leadership raises the quality of every player and they win their first ever World Cup.

Why they’ll lose:A high quality spine through the team and extraordinary discipline simply won’t be enough against teams with top-end talent.

Follow The Soccer Sharps

Best of luck to anyone out there watching, cheering, or betting on the World Cup this summer. For more betting soccer content and podcasts be sure to check out my gambling podcast: The Soccer Sharps. Anywhere you get pods.