Who is England’s likeliest opponent in the World Cup Round of 32? | OneFootball

England’s World Cup campaign hit a familiar second-game speed bump as they drew with Ghana, but Thomas Tuchel’s side still has an excellent chance of reaching the knockouts.

Beat Panama in the final game and England are through to the elongated knockout stages, but what comes next for the team?

Here’s who England will likely face depending on where they finish:

If England finish as winners

England’s group is one where the winner will play one of the eight best third-place team and their opponent will come from Group E, H, I, J or K.

For mathematical reasons that are simply too hard in the middle of a heatwave, England has a 66.67% chance of playing the team from Group K should they be one of the best third-place teams.

It then goes to 22.83% for Group I, 5.86% for Group E, 4.04% for Group J and 0.61% for Group H.

So the most likely scenario is that if England win the group they play one of Portugal, DR Congo or Uzbekistan.

We can pretty much rule out the last team as they are on zero points with a -7 goal difference. Portugal are second currently in that group ahead of facing leaders Colombia in the final game.

DR Congo need to win against Uzbekistan to secure their status as a third-place team. There is a small possibility they could finish second should Portugal lose and DR Congo be able to turn their -1 goal difference into something better than Portugal’s which is currently at +5.

Should DR Congo draw and not qualify as a third-place team, England’s likely opponents will come from Group I. For England fans, this should be marked as ‘scenarios to avoid’ as Group I is one of the toughest.

Senegal currently occupy third spot in that group on zero points but face whipping boys Iraq in the final game. If they win and get their goal difference from -3 to at least -1, they will likely go through.

Whoever England face, they will do so at the Atlantic Stadium in Georgia on July 1.

If England finish second

If England finish second, the calculation as to who they will play next is a lot simpler.

Runners-up of Group L will face the runners-up of Group K. That is Portugal as it stands, who are two points behind leaders Colombia and three ahead of DR Congo.

If Portugal beat Colombia in the final group stage match, England will face the South Americans. If Portugal lose and DR Congo beat Uzbekistan by enough goals, DR Congo will go through in second instead.

If England finish third

There is still a small chance that England could finish third in Group L.

For that to happen, they would have to lose to Panama in the final game while Croatia would need to beat Ghana.

England would also have to have a worse goal difference than Ghana due to their head-to-head being a draw.

In that scenario, England would likely face the winners of Group K at the Kansas City Stadium. That is currently Colombia ahead of their final match against Portugal.