Why Carrick is ‘difficult to let go of’ despite being ‘similar to or worse than Amorim’ at Man Utd | OneFootball

It still isn’t clear whether Michael Carrick should get the Manchester United job on a permanent basis – might a two-year deal make sense?

That would at least give a ‘unicorn-type manager’ time to emerge and eventually take over.

Send your thoughts to theeditor@football365.com.

I’m still on the fence when it comes to appointing Carrick full time. However, seeing as most letters have been in favour I thought I could at least play devil’s advocate and try to explain the case against, or essentially, what’s keeping me on the fence.

The way I see it the arguments for Carrick are 1. He’s winning games / getting points at title winning pace  2. He’s doing much better than Amorim with the same squad  3. There aren’t any better candidates available

I’m going to take these one at a time.

1. Carrick is indeed earning points at title winning pace, 2.2 points per game so far which is better than City and Arsenal have managed for the whole season. The issue here is that it’s only 13 games and it’s problematic to extrapolate from such a small sample. For context earlier this season Aston Villa had a run of 12 wins in 13 league games including wins over City and Arsenal. This netted Unai Emery an average of 2.76 points per game which across a season would mean a record points winning season of 105, yet Villa aren’t winning the league this year because runs of bad form balance out the purple patches.

United are not a title winning team so it’s not reasonable to think results will continue to be this good, this might even be Carrick’s purple patch. So if you’re pinning Carrick’s appointment mainly on his results then it’s a soft argument at best.

2. As we can see above, Carrick is doing better than any manager in the league since taking over so its not only Amorim he’s out performing. What’s crucial though is the ‘same squad’ element. If you look at what players Carrick has had available then the closest we can get in comparison with Amorim is a 10 game run starting with Sunderland at home when Lamens became the keeper, to Bournemouth at home which is the last game before AFCON players left and before Bruno was injured.

During this period Amorim achieved 1.9 points per game so a difference of 0.3 to Carrick, which would effectively be worth 4 points. That’s hardly a massive improvement and could simply be the new manager bounce. Without it the team would be in the 5th, comfortably in the Champions league places, and only 1 point behind Liverpool with the chance to go above them this week. If even one of Carrick’s narrow wins had gone the other way then it would almost be equal.

Under Amorim Untied were amongst the best in the league in a whole host of attacking metrics like chances created, touches in the box, shots in the box, shots on target, possession, and xG. All of which have declined since Carrick’s appointment. Whilst results are what ultimately matter, the data suggests a decline in performance which again could make results unsustainable.

3. I don’t know which managers are actually available but I commonly hear only Enrique would be preferred over Carrick, which is a bit mad when you think about it. If you remove his caretaker role at United then his previous experience is guiding Middlesborough to upper mid table finishes in the Championship. Kieran McKenna has a better CV than that but I don’t see fans scrambling for his appointment.

Buying in proven Premier League quality worked great with Mbeumo and Cunha yet the speed with which most dismiss Iraola is baffling, he’s shown immense ability and acumen with Bournemouth whilst playing the high intensity attacking football we crave, and we definitely know he is available.

Ultimately I think Carrick is just the easy choice because he’s already here, we know him, and his tenure so far has felt really good. With the ups and mostly downs of multiple appointments over the years, along with the fatigue and stress that comes with that, then having something that’s secure and familiar is difficult to let go of.

Carrick isn’t the smart choice, he’s the emotional one, but that’s ok. There is potential to be better and if all he achieves is keeping United within the European places, holding the fort until that unicorn type manager becomes available, then fair enough. Dave, Manchester

Assuming United don’t mess it up from here, the board are obviously going to have a really tough decision in the next month or so. After trying a host of different managers and styles, I think it’s fair to say most United fans are probably just confused at this point. For me, I could probably argue it both ways.

It is inarguable and simply fact that the results since Carrick have come in warrant keeping this going. Further, he has done this with a midfield we were told is incapable of success, basically never having a first choice CB pairing available, numerous questionable decisions from officials and a front line that hasn’t really been firing. The players look happy too. Further, he knows what a proper United looks like, having experienced it first hand for years. Club identity and history is not really something to dismissed. So, keep him?

Or, you can look at the fundamentals and see that it’s not really that different from Amorim, just United have been less profligate in front of goal and are conceding fewer chances. Many of the attacking and control metrics actually look similar to or worse than Amorim. There is no real dominance on display, and even the great results haven’t really come with great performances. So, would a truly ‘world-class’ coach be able to deliver that?

The fact is that the choice will be between Carrick and not-Carrick. And for the latter to be an option, I believe there has to be a pretty compelling option. And who is actually available? In the absence of a ‘generational’ coach, I think United probably stick with Carrick on a shortish – say 2 year – contract with a clear path to extension. Then the board can focus on what really matters: getting a quantity of actually good players in. The squad is going to have 1 CF and 1 CMF come the summer, and that’s not going to get you far when we’re back up to 50+ games a season. Ryan, Bermuda

Nursing those semis

My 2 penneth on the 2 games so far.

Athletico v Arse – Surely that is the best way to use VAR – if you give a marginal penalty then it would make sense to double check such a crucial decision no? And then – as was the case – you realise that you’d got it wrong as it was a clear cheating dive – you disallow it. All makes perfect sense to me and was the right thing to do. Pens can be easily and quickly checked – and as they are so important – why wouldnt you?

Tbh they may aswell just have a penalty shoot out with this tie and cut out the tedious middle man.

PSG v Bayern – bad defending? Do me a favour! If you watched the game you will see that all 10 outfield players on both sides are part of the continuous attacking play – all contributing to moving the opposing teams around to suit them – all players including full backs and centre backs attempting shape splitting passes – all at an amazing tempo. This would not be possible if they were playing a rigid back 4 or 5. So PSG (and same can be said of Bayern) would not have scored 5 goals and possibly way more if they were a traditional rigid formation. That doesnt equate as bad defending – that just means they are concentrating on attacking.

I think Harry Kane was right when he said there was good defending too – there was – but of course its going to be less rigid and more reactional if all your players are contributing to being offensive. That shouldnt be a criticism. Football is first and foremost about trying to win – and to win you have to score. Secondary to that is trying not to be beaten – but it should always be secondary. And very much so if you are one of the powerhouses of world football.

Both these teams/clubs should be praised to the hilt for attempting to save our game from the dark side that has been gradually devouring over the last few years. Not only was it a scintillating watch but it was also played in a good spirit with hardly any winging, diving, sneaky fouls and no time wasting whatsoever. This is clearly a policy that the 2 sides have insisted on and striven (strove?) to achieve.

Lets hope the rest of the world takes note and attempts to do similar in the future.

Gives me reason to still love football. Shunt – LFC

This may be a controversial opinion, but I thought there was nothing wrong with the defending in PSG-Bayern the other night – there just wasn’t much of it.

This may be a bit haughty, but it wasn’t a million miles from Villa-PSG at Villa Park last season, when at 5-1 down Villa (ie John McGinn) decided, f**k it: time to go out on our shield. And then realised PSG’s 2-0-8 formation actually stays the same when they’re defending as well as attacking.

What we see here are 2 clubs who, give or take, don’t need to worry too much about how they play in domestic football; and so act as if the rule changes in the last 30 years and their consequential tactical tweaks are just things that happened to other people.

Ending the back pass rule and diluting offside so that level = between, means backlines are now 40 yards further back than they were in the 80s; the sweeper now plays in front of them rather than behind – and often there are 2 of them. Wingers are now inverted so they naturally head infield to clog up play if possession is lost. And the extra defensive player means one fewer striker, with the remaining lone forward tasked with either running channels, holding up long balls out of defence, or false nining it in case the other billion players in midfield aren’t enough. Scoring goals is just a nice bonus.

Upamecano, Marquinhos, Kim, Tah and Pacho are 5 of the best centre backs in Europe. Davies, Mendes, Hakimi, Stanisic – any of these full backs would upgrade every team in the premier league. A lot of us who grew up on Italian football in the 90s wrongly believe the default position in football is defence always beats attack unless something goes wrong. But Mendes – a ridiculously good player – being taken to the cleaners by Olise is just a reflection on how good Olise is, not some malfunction in Portuguese defensive football. Stanisic won’t have fond memories of the evening, but Cafu, Lahm and Thuram bunched up in a Chipmunks-style trenchcoat could not have stopped Kvara and Dembele; sometimes players are just too good.

This type of game always brings out the pseuds who spy an opportunity to inform people they only enjoy goals because they’re brainwashed infants; the real connoisseurs of the sport prefer a 0-0, sorry if you’re too stupid to appreciate the beauty of a 10 yard throw-in played backwards to a defender.

But a 5-4 game means that a point is being scored on average every 10 minutes. How many sports is that true of? Even in test cricket, 10 mins with nothing changing on the scoreboard gets remarked upon. Football is (now) fundamentally a low-scoring game, and a f**king boring one at that. The premise of entertaining neutrals is pernicious and false – neutrals should sod off, I have no interest in my team playing in a way that suits people who don’t care about the result. But if I’m a neutral and I am being entertained, that doesn’t mean what I’m watching has no value. Neil Raines

I think I’m paranoid

I loved Tom (long brackets), Leyton’s mail earlier which was both fabulously paranoid and contradictory.

He starts by telling us that ‘Now, I’m certain every fanbase has this feeling. It probably comes from the way your memory works, the injustices stacking up rather than the ones you sneak away with’ then, ‘But man, does it feel like we’ve been done particularly badly here, in a way that happens to us ALL THE TIME’ and continues ‘Full disclosure: I would have been irritated if we’d conceded that penalty up the other end and grudgingly ok if it’d not been given.’

I guess he doesn’t recognise he is contradicting himself from one sentence to the next!

He says then ‘what I want to know, is what was said to the referee by VAR’.

Well, for Tom’s benefit I have special access to the VAR to referee conversations, and the VAR definitely said to the referee “I think you aught to take another look, but remember that you need to over turn any decision you made in Arsenal’s favour ALL THE F***ING TIME!”

Perhaps Legohead’s paranoia has infected Tom.

He also goes on to say that ‘Maybe it’s an NFL style thing, where every penalty decision is reviewed’. I presume he means by the referee on the monitor, as to the best of my knowledge every penalty decision is reviewed by VAR, and they only get the referee involved if they think the decision is questionable? ‘Think’ being the operative word here as all judgements on decisions, by the ref or VAR, are interpretive, whether you like it or not.

Get over it fella! A, LFC, Montreal.

Minty twitting

Imagine coming to the mailbox to highlight Arsenal Twitter and the madness of it and then highlighting your own biases/madness by saying Eze dived?

Even Tickner highlights it as the most straightforward of fouls and a penalty. Tickner!

If a defender stands on your instep after you’ve taken the ball it’s a foul all day long.

Except in Minty Twitter where it’s a dive and a card.

Twitter, by and for the nutters,  apparently. JT

Minty, I generally find your emails quite balanced and don’t often disagree with much you say.

But:

The ball flicks off Ben White’s shin before hitting his hand. 100% a penalty in the Champions League ( potentially not in the PL ), but let’s not pretend he was in any way in control of making contact.

Eze was clipped in the box. Soft? Yes. A foul? Also yes. 2 things can be true.

Just because some plank online has annoyed you, doesn’t mean you have to be dragged down. Doug, AFC, Belfast

How VAR works

VAR (not really paying attention): Er, yeah. I mean, um, maybe. Actually, mate, you might want to review that decision.

Ref: Oh, really? Okay then, I’ll take a look.

Referee goes to the monitor . . .

Ref (thinks): What am I looking at? What the f**k am I looking at? It’s clearly a penalty . . . Yeah, but they wouldn’t have called me over here if they agreed with me . . .  I might get into trouble if I stand by my decision and it turns out to be wrong . . . But it’s NOT wrong . . . Hmm, don’t fancy refereeing Swindon / Mansfield next week and staying at the bloody Travelodge . . . What to do? What to do? I know. I’ll just stand here for a few more seconds pulling faces and then overturn my decision . . .

Pretty sure this thought process goes on most weeks on football pitches across Europe. Matt Pitt

Hello everyone,

Apologies, bit late with this one – thanks to Mikel Arteta for a giving me great night’s sleep after that soporific display. Incredibly snoring I was.

However, there’s no way on god’s green earth that the Eze penalty decision was a clear or obvious error, and therefore it should never in a million years have been flagged by VAR. A legitimate complaint about refereeing for Arsenal fans!! Finally!! RHT/TS x

(They’re gonna ruin and yet win the CL final Jose style while City do a double aren’t they)

In their defence

Hi there,

Dale May, Swindon Wengerite says “Arteta and Simeone will have watched that game, would have been very entertained by it, and would have quietly thought to themselves that they have a very decent chance of winning the Champions League as the other, more lauded, teams cannot defend for toffee.”

Maybe a previous incarnation of Simeone, but this current Atletico Madrid team are not, in fact, a particularly solid team defensively. They’ve conceded 37 goals in 33 games in La Liga this season, more than, for example, Getafe, and they conceded 15 goals in 8 games in the Swiss League system of the Champions League.