World Cup 2026 Round of 32 predictions Part Two: Decisive win for England over DR Congo

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·28 Juni 2026

World Cup 2026 Round of 32 predictions Part Two: Decisive win for England over DR Congo

The group stage is complete, and the knockout rounds are finally upon us, with every nation now just one defeat away from heading home.

After predicting the opening four Round of 32 ties earlier this week – World Cup 2026 Round of 32 Predictions Part One – Dan Smith returns with his thoughts on every other knockout fixture. As always, these predictions are based on the score after 90 minutes, so if Dan believes a tie will go to extra time or penalties, he has predicted a draw and you should do the same.

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Germany 1-0 Paraguay

Considering they already knew they had won the group, some of the backlash Germany has received for losing to Ecuador seems harsh.

I wonder if Julian Nagelsmann wishes he had just rested players like Norway did.

He did bring on substitutes in the second half who have been short of game time, but that hasn’t stopped the heavy criticism.

The manager feels the media are throwing certain talent under the bus and spreading rumours that morale is low in the dressing room.

Either way, it’s counterproductive.

Paraguay will try to take advantage by frustrating their opponents. In qualification and in their last two fixtures, the South Americans have been hard to score against.

Gustavo Alfaro will tell his men the longer this game stays goalless, the more the pressure increases on their opponents.

Patience might be required.

Ivory Coast 1-1 Norway

Ståle Solbakken made a calculated gamble on Friday. He played practically his second XI, essentially sacrificing winning the group so his first team could have over a week’s rest by the time they kick off on Tuesday.

I think you can get at both sides defensively.

We know Norway have the superstar striker, but I think Ivory Coast have more match-winners.

The longer the game goes, especially if extra time is needed, I think they have more options.

France 3-1 Sweden

It will be interesting to see how Graham Potter approaches Tuesday.

The manager has made a point during the group stage of wanting his tactics to be adaptable so they can play differently depending on their opponents.

It felt on Friday as though Japan’s scoring forced him to be positive. It begs the question: will Sweden’s best form of defence against France be attack?

If they park the bus, by the law of averages, the French have too much world-class talent not to eventually break them down.

Mexico 0-1 Ecuador

Mexico have home advantage for both Wednesday and the next round if they reach it.

That’s huge when you consider the hosts have lost only twice in 81 competitive matches at the Estadio Azteca.

Yet I keep thinking about Ecuador’s defensive record in qualifying and feel this could be a banana skin.

At half-time against Germany, they were heading for a national inquiry. That’s why their manager was jumping into the crowd at full-time because he was probably close to losing his job. Suddenly they have momentum, and this is the kind of environment they thrive in.

When their backs are against the wall, they are not expected to take the initiative, and they can stifle their opponents.

They would enjoy playing the role of gatecrashers at someone else’s party.

England 3-1 DR Congo

I saw during the group stage that England’s defence wasn’t being protected. It felt like their opponents only had to play one ball over the top and the Three Lions were outnumbered.

You sense Jordan Pickford is aware the back four in front of him aren’t as good as in previous tournaments and are trying too hard.

Thomas Tuchel has reassured me that this was a tactical gamble and that he wouldn’t approach tougher opponents this way. Declan Rice returning will help, but Elliot Anderson proved this weekend that he can’t marshal a midfield on his own.

It’s like some managers have used the group stage as a pre-season, but we are now at the point where one mistake can send you home.

A repeat of some of that defending against Panama and DR Congo have the pace to make England pay.

Keeping out the likes of Kane and Bellingham, though, is much trickier.

Belgium 1-2 Senegal

So how much do we read into one game?

Belgium proved on Saturday that, on their day, they have talented individuals, but we have known that for a while.

What we also know from recent tournaments is that, when things go wrong, they don’t always have the mentality to respond.

No one takes responsibility, and there is a lack of leadership.

I know the first goal in any World Cup knockout tie is important, but I would be very interested to see what the response would be if Senegal scored first.

Spain 2-0 Austria

What can Spain do better than anyone else?

Keep the ball.

That will be crucial in these conditions, especially now that extra time is a possibility.

When they lifted the World Cup in South Africa, they used their ability to dominate possession as a defensive tactic, and I can see them doing the same here.

They’re another nation that I feel used the group stage just to fine-tune a few things.

Portugal 1-0 Croatia

When will I learn to stop writing Croatia off after World Cups? I just assumed the conditions would be too much for some of their ageing legs.

Modric is 40 and Ronaldo is 41, and both legends have earned the right to die on their swords, but do you sense one country is doing a better job than the other of finding a system built around their captain?

Zlatko Dalic wasn’t scared to substitute his skipper twice during the group stage.

If Martinez were going to do that, he would have done it by now.

The Spaniard clearly feels Ronaldo is the person you want a chance to fall to in the penalty area, and I agree with that. But in terms of getting over the line at the business end of the tournament, I’m not sure Portugal have found the correct balance yet.

Switzerland 2-0 Algeria

Group J was the final section to be resolved. Austria knew a point would be good enough for second, while their opponents knew a point would be enough to guarantee the final best third-placed spot. Who would have guessed a draw?

I do feel sorry for Iran, having gone home without losing a game.

Four years ago, Argentina lost their opening game of the World Cup. In their second match, they brought on Álvarez and Fernández, and that turned out to be their turning point.

I’m not saying the introductions of Vargas and Manzambi will make Switzerland world champions, but they have not looked back since.

Australia 1-0 Egypt

Australia and Paraguay kicked off on three points, knowing that a draw would be enough to put them both through to the Round of 32.

Was it a shock the game ended 0-0?

Tony Popovic has shown he can set up a team defensively and make it difficult to break down.

As I write this, it’s not clear how serious Mo Salah’s hamstring injury is. If Egypt’s captain is injured, this could be the Socceroos’ best chance to win a World Cup knockout tie for the first time.

It might come down to which manager is more ambitious.

Argentina 4-0 Cape Verde

Cape Verde are in the unique position of having finished runners-up in their group without actually winning a game.

I have seen odds as high as 14-1 for that to happen against the world champions.

In reality, this should be a great chance for Messi to increase his chances of winning the Golden Boot.

Colombia 1-0 Ghana

Ghana have proved during the group stage how difficult they are to score against. It took a stunner from Croatia for them to finally concede.

The schedule has been kind to the Black Stars because they have nearly a week to prepare, which is key because the more they work with Carlos Queiroz on the training pitch, the more organised they will become.

I just think, by the law of averages, the Colombians can physically match their opponents while also having more individuals capable of producing that moment of magic.

The knockout stages always produce drama, surprises and heartbreak, and I’m sure this year’s Round of 32 will be no different. These are my predictions, but football has a habit of reminding us why we love it.

Do you agree with Dan’s Round of 32 predictions, Gooners? Which ties do you see going differently, and who do you think will be the surprise package of the knockout stages? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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