World Cup Qualifying: Ranking Italy’s Most Likely Play-off Opponents | OneFootball

Italy’s revival under head coach Gennaro Gattuso continued in the latest round of World Cup qualifiers as they secured comfortable victories over Estonia and Israel.

However, Norway’s 5-0 victory against Israel in Oslo during the same international break left them three points clear at the top of Group I.

Barring an unlikely combination of results in the final two rounds of matches, Italy will be consigned to the play-off lottery for the third straight qualification campaign.

World Cup Play-off Heartache

The Azzurri were beaten over two legs by Sweden in the qualifying play-offs for Russia 2018, marking the first time in 60 years in which they didn’t feature on football’s grandest stage.

They missed out again four years later, this time in shocking fashion after losing at home to North Macedonia. With another trip to the play-offs on the cards, it comes as no surprise to discover that online sports betting sites don’t consider Gattuso’s side contenders to win the World Cup next summer.

Websites offering sports betting in Canada currently rate Italy as 33/1 shots to lift the trophy, a long way behind 4/1 favourites Spain.

But if a place in the play-offs is confirmed when the qualifying campaign concludes in November, who are the Italians likely to face? Read on as we take a closer look.

Rematch Tops the Bill

A rematch with North Macedonia is feasible. Their performances in the UEFA Nations League assured them of a play-off place, and they could face Italy.

They are battling with Wales to finish second behind Belgium in Group J, and face a crucial fixture in Cardiff next month.

Wales are scheduled to visit Liechtenstein in their next outing and a victory there would put them level on points with North Macedonia.

While they would fancy their chances of winning the blockbuster clash, North Macedonia are the value bet to finish second.

They drew home and away with Belgium, highlighting their ability to cause problems for the top teams in the world.

Northern Ireland Could be Troublesome

UDINE, ITALY – OCTOBER 14: Gianluca Mancini of Italy celebrates scoring his team’s third goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match between Italy and Israel at Stadio Friuli on October 14, 2025 in Udine, Italy. (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)

Italy could also face Northern Ireland in the play-offs. They haven’t featured at the World Cup since a group stage exit back in 1986.

Their sole major tournament appearance since then was a trip to the second round of the 2016 European Championship.

However, a crop of exciting youngsters led by Shea Charles and Conor Bradley has the Windsor Park faithful dreaming of a return to football’s grandest stage.

Italy could also come up against Romania, a nation that has repeatedly disappointed in recent years.

After reaching the semi-final of the 2019 European U21 Championship, Romania were expected to kick on and start regularly qualifying for major tournaments.

While they reached the round of 16 at last summer’s European Championship, they remain without a World Cup appearance since 1998.

Northern Ireland and Romania could be tricky opponents, but Italy should defeat them if they produce their best form.

Minnows Hoping to Upset the Odds

UDINE, ITALY – OCTOBER 14: Gennaro Gattuso, Head Coach of Italy, interacts with Gianluigi Donnarumma of Italy after the team’s victory in the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match between Italy and Israel at Stadio Friuli on October 14, 2025 in Udine, Italy. (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)

Lowly San Marino are not really considered likely opponents for Italy in a World Cup play-off, but it could happen.

La Serenissima has won just three competitive international matches, but a shock Nations League promotion thanks to victories against Liechtenstein and Gibraltar secured a play-off spot. Whoever they face in the play-offs, they will almost certainly lose.

Kosovo are another potential play-off opponent for Italy following their stunning 1-0 victory over Sweden in their latest qualifier.

That result left them second in Group B, three points behind Switzerland with two games remaining. If they avoid defeat when they visit Slovenia in their next qualifier, Kosovo would be guaranteed to finish second in their group.

The result against Sweden completed an unlikely double over a nation who were fancied to challenge for automatic qualification.

Sweden had Alexander Isak up front alongside Viktor Gyokeres, but they were unable to breach Kosovo’s dogged defensive unit.

A play-off against Italy would offer Kosovo another opportunity to beat one of the biggest nations in the world, and it would be foolish to underestimate their chances.