AI simulates Bolton Wanderers v Stockport County play-off final 1000 times - here's who won most | OneFootball

Football League World sees who comes out on top in ChatGPT's prediction of the League One play-off final

It's play-off final week in the EFL, and Sunday sees Bolton Wanderers and Stockport County take to the Wembley stage to see who will join Lincoln City and Cardiff City in the Championship next season.

Both the Hatters and the Trotters began the 2025/26 campaign by facing off against each other. Both had expectations of challenging for the automatic promotion places, and Stockport took all three points to kickstart that charge.

Nine months later, they'll end their campaigns against each other. By their own admissions, this season has been a slight letdown in terms of pre-season expectations, but none of that will matter if it ends in promotion anyway.

Neither side has the best of luck when it comes to the postseason. This is Bolton's third League One play-off campaign in the last four seasons, and their first trip to the final since their shock defeat against Oxford United two years ago.

Meanwhile, Stockport have failed in each of their last four play-off campaigns, dating back to 2018, which included a semi-final defeat against Leyton Orient last season and a Wembley loss against Carlisle United in the League Two final back in 2023.

AI simulates Bolton Wanderers vs Stockport County 1,000 times

One side's poor luck in the postseason is about to end, and with their respective play-off records, it's hard to predict a winner.

So, Football League World has leaned on popular AI-based service, ChatGPT, to get its thoughts on what the more likely outcome will be by getting it to simulate the final 1,000 times over.

And Stockport fans will be glad to know that AI is on their side this Sunday lunchtime, but not by much.

Indeed, over 90 minutes, ChatGPT simulated a Stockport win 412 times, while Bolton were victorious in 287 instances. Therefore, 301 simulations ended as a draw.

Then, in those 301 games which went to extra time and perhaps even penalties, AI has split the wins down the middle, allocating 151 to Dave Challinor's side and 150 to the Trotters.

Overall, that leaves the final results reading: Stockport 563–437 Bolton, meaning ChatGPT gives the Hatters a 56.3% chance of securing a fourth promotion in the space of eight seasons and a second-tier return for the first time since the 2001/02 campaign.

Why AI favours Stockport County over Bolton Wanderers in the League One play-off final

ChatGPT went on to explain that Stockport's eventual league position — finishing third for the second season running — and the stronger recent trajectory are the reasons why it backs Dave Challinor's side over Steven Schumacher's this Sunday.

Additionally, Bolton's tendency to draw games this season, with their 18 stalemates the most of any third-tier side in the regular campaign, increases the draw probability and decreases the Trotter's winning one.

Indeed, the most common scoreline after 90 minutes was said to be 1-1, with that occurring 129 times out of the 1,000 simulations. 0-0 was the score in 94 of them, with 1-0 to Stockport being the second-most common scoreline at 116.

So, AI predicts a cagey, low-scoring affair, where each side's defence will likely play a starring role.

Both sides were perfect at the back in their semi-finals, brushing aside Stevenage and Bradford City with clean sheets to boot in both games, and that will likely have to be the aim of the game this Sunday, too, given the attacking threats both sides pose.

It'll be a tough game to call, but AI is leaning slightly on the Stockport side as we get closer to the bank holiday weekend.