Arsenal v Aston Villa: Emery to frustrate his former team | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Arsenal's game against Aston Villa will help shape the Premier League title race

Arsenal v Aston Villa is one of the biggest games of the season so far, and Kevin Hatchard believes the visitors can be competitive against the league leaders...

Arsenal v Aston VillaTuesday 30 December, 20:15

Raya helps shape tight title race

Although the Premier League leaders Arsenal dominated long spells of their 2-1 win over Brighton and ran out deserved winners, they were very nearly pegged back by the Seagulls. A comfortable 2-0 lead at the Emirates became a rather less secure 2-1 advantage, and with quarter of an hour to go Gunners keeper David Raya had to produce one of the saves of the season to keep his side on course for three precious points. As manager Mikel Arteta later pointed out, the Spaniard's full-length dive to tip over Yankuba Minteh's curling drive was a great example of a key player stepping up in a pivotal moment.

Given their ongoing injury crisis and the whittling down of their lead at the top, Arsenal need those big contributions more than ever. They go into this latest set of matches with a two-point lead over Manchester City, and Pep Guardiola's men have reeled off six straight top-flight wins. Arteta's men have been edged into second spot in each of the last three seasons, so the pressure on them to finally deliver is enormous.

Declan Rice filled in at right-back against Brighton, but should return to his familiar midfield role here, with Jurrien Timber expected to be passed fit. Eberechi Eze hopes to win a recall, although club captain Martin Odegaard scored a fine opener against Brighton. Influential centre-back Gabriel returned from a long lay-off as a substitute against the Seagulls, but it's unclear whether the Brazilian is yet fit enough to start.

Extraordinary run shows Emery's doubters were wrong

It seems absurd that a poor start to the campaign saw some Aston Villa fans begin to question manager Unai Emery, who has delivered a phenomenal purple patch for the Birmingham giants. The Basque coach has responded by helping the club string together a run of 11 straight competitive wins, a sequence that has catapulted them into a title race.

Villa's latest game saw them come from behind to win 2-1 at Chelsea, a match that saw them dominated for an hour, before some tactical tweaks from Emery swung the game the visitors' way. Ollie Watkins netted a quickfire match-winning brace, and then took time out to praise the manager's willingness to adjust a 4-2-2-2 formation that simply wasn't working.

The data suggests that Villa's run won't continue (understat.com say Villa are 14th on Expected Points, and are by far the biggest overachievers in the division), but Emeryball has defied xG models before, and we've also seen teams manage to outrun their data for an extended period. One of the significant ways that Villa are outperforming their xG is by scoring consistently from range. Emery's men have scored a league-high ten goals from outside the box.

Emery will have to shuffle his pack here, with right-back Matty Cash and holding midfielder Boubacar Kamara both suspended. Centre-backs Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will miss out with injury, while Watkins' heroics at Chelsea mean he'll probably get the nod to lead the line here.

Villa can at least keep it close

Our friends at Opta tell us that Villa have won three of their last five Premier League meetings with Arsenal, including the reverse fixture, which was a 2-1 success for Villa earlier this month. Despite their depleted resources in midfield and defence, Villa are finding ways to win, even when they aren't playing particularly well.

We can back Villa +1.0 on the Asian Handicap here at 2.3, which gives us an odds-against winner if Villa avoid defeat, and returns out stake if Unai Emery's team loses by just one goal. Villa have lost just twice on the road in the league this term, and their only defeat by a multiple-goal margin was a 2-0 loss at Liverpool.

Arsenal have won just one of their last six top-flight games by two goals or more, and even that was a 2-0 success against Brentford that was sealed by a stoppage-time goal from Bukayo Saka. You have to go back to 2021 for the last time Arsenal won a home game against Arsenal by two goals or more.

Hot-shot Rogers to try his luck

Morgan Rogers recently scored a stunning brace against Manchester United which secured an excellent win at Villa Park, and the Aston Villa and England number ten has repeatedly proven he can hit the target from range. Given Villa's willingness to have pot-shots from distance in the Premier League this term, I like the look of Rogers to have a shot on target from outside the box at 5/2 on the Sportsbook.

Rogers has had a shot on target in five of his last seven Premier League starts, including in the reverse fixture, and given that Arsenal are very well organised out of possession Villa may well have to go for goal from a long way out.

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Recommended bets

Back Aston Villa +1.0 on the Asian Handicap @ 2.3

Back Morgan Rogers to have a shot on target from outside the box @ 5/2