Aston Villa v Newcastle: Win with fast-starting Watkins & back a 14/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

English Premier League

Back the hosts to beat Newcastle at Villa Park and Ollie Watkins to score first

Paul Higham is backing Ollie Watkins to get Aston Villa off to a winning start against Newcastle - and has a big 14/1 Bet Builder running in the lunchtime kick-off at Villa Park..

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Aston Villa v NewcastleSaturday 16 August, 12:30 kick-offLive on TNT Sports

No team, manager or set of fans probably want the football to finally start than Newcastle, who kick-off the first Saturday of the new Premier League season with their lunchtime visit to Aston Villa.

They'll go to the Midlands without their on-strike striker Alexander Isak but at least having signed AC Milan defender Malik Thiaw and agreed a deal for midfielder Jacob Ramsey from Villa - who have had a quiet summer while dealing with PSR constraints.

Those constraints may have been lessened had they not been pipped to a Champions League spot by Newcastle only on goal difference, so Unai Emery's side will have plenty of motivation to exact revenge by converting at 6/5 favourites.

Newcastle are 21/10 having failed to win a pre-season game and with the Isak saga rumbling on no doubt causing a disturbance. You could though take a view that Eddie Howe could use it to galvanise his squad - but this is a tough trip to start with.

Current form and recent head-to-head points to home win

The Magpies won this fixture 5-1 when the two played on the openng day of the 2023/24 season as the first of three straight wins over Villa, but they lost 4-1 here in April and have lost five of their last six league visits to Villa Park.

Emery's side also have a superb home record as they're unbeaten in 21 in front of their own fans (W16 D6), but with just two clean sheets in 11 home league outings both teams to score will be popular at 8/15.

With 25 goals in the last six meetings it's also a fixture full of goals - but I'd actually lean towards under 2.5 landing here at 6/5 as Howe may well have to play without a striker so goals could be hard to come by while he figures out his forward line.

But there's enough juice in a home win at odds against to back it as the match outright. Emery's a master planner so will have a gameplan and after a much more settled summer he can get Villa off to a winning start.

Win with Watkins as 4/1 stand out

Ollie Watkins was linked with a move away all summer long, but starts the season still with Villa and looking in great touch over the pre-season, as he scored in all four of his warm-up games for the campaign.

Watkins is a 13/10 clear favourite as anytime scorer with a deadly record in this fixture - scoring in all four Premier League home games against Newcastle. Watkins is also 4/1 first goalscorer.

Newcastle are trying to bring in Brentford's Yoane Wissa while they deal with a sulking Swede on strike, but for this they'll be short on striker options as Howe ideally wouldn't start with the inexperienced William Osula up front - but he may have to.

Anthony Gordon would likely be his preferred option as a false nine but that will depend on whether he's over his ankle injury and fit enough to start - with summer signing Anthony Elanga and Harvey Barnes set to start out wide.

Jacob Murphy scored twice in pre-season and is 7/2 to score at Villa Park, as is Elanga, with Barnes 3/1. Gordon is 5/2 but obviously his fitness needs monitoring before pulling the trigger on him.

You're always guessing somewhat on the opening day of the season, so I think it makes sense to stick with what we know here - Newcastle have issues, VIlla have a fine home record and Watkins has been in great touch in pre-season and loves this fixture. So we'll back him to strike first.

McGinn the main man in 14/1 Bet Builder

Let's have some Bet Builder fun on the opening day - and I'd firstly target the fouls market here as this should be a feisty little encounter, although the bookies are expecting the same with usual suspects Joelinton, Bruno Guimaraes and John McGinn all short priced for fouls for and against.

Best of the bunch are Joelinton to give away 3+ fouls at 10/11 and McGinn to be fouled 2+ times at 4/9.

Moving to shots on target, Harvey Barnes is a favourite of mine but is 8/11 so preference goes to Elanga at 1/1 who should have no problem testing the keep as he'll be lively on his Newcastle debut.

The odds booster here is the 15/8 on McGinn to have a shot on target. The skipper scored in pre-season and had five shots on target in his final six starts of last season - finishing the campaign with five efforts on goal as Villa made their desperate push for the Champions League.

Newcastle will likely play on the break with attacking options limited so Villa will have more of the ball and McGinn isn't scared of having a crack from distance.

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