Best Bets for MLS Week 17

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·21 luglio 2026

Best Bets for MLS Week 17

The Designated Pundits break down their MLS bet slips each week LIVE on YouTube. You can catch the replay on YouTube, Spotify with video, and your favorite podcast app. In this article, I post some of my plays which I think should be MLS Week 17 Best Bets.

Join us LIVE on Tuesday, July 21st at 8:45 PM ET (HERE)

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Inter Miami hosts Chicago Fire

Chicago +0.5 & Over 1.5 Goals -117

This weekend Inter Miami hosts the Chicago Fire in what could be a confusing game for some. This one could be without a few of MLS’s biggest names: Messi and DePaul could miss after this weekend’s World Cup Final. Meanwhile, Chicago will be without Hugo Cuypers, who was 1st in MLS’s Golden Boot race with 13 goals before asking for a transfer while Chicago worked on a deal for Robert Lewandowski.

Argentina’s World Cup Final loss will still be fresh in the minds of the Inter Miami squad, and I expect those absences to create a mentality that could set Miami back.

Still, the underlying stats don’t lie. Chicago is 3-2-1 on the road with a +4 goal differential, while Inter Miami struggled in their first few home matches and sport a 2-3-1 home record.

As for the small total, over 1.5 goals, Inter Miami has only seen fewer than two on one occasion, a 0-0 draw with Charlotte. They are seeing an average of 4.47 goals this season. For Chicago, they have seen two 1-0 wins and a 0-0 draw this season, which are their only games under 2 total goals. They are seeing an average of 3.07 goals this season.

I like Chicago on the double chance and over 1.5 as my first official play.

Match- NE Revolution host Toronto FC

Revolution Team Total Over 1.5 Goals -120 (½ Unit)

NE Revolution Win -120 (½ Unit)

I’ve been rooting hard for TFC this season, but with a 3-6-6 record and -7 goal differential, their results have been few and far between. Even before the World Cup break, Toronto hadn’t won a game in almost two months. Currently, that April 4th victory was over 15 weeks ago.

TFC has conceded 1.93 goals per game, while the Revs have scored 1.53 per game (that number goes up to 2.13 if you only count their matches at home).

The Revolution are -120 to win, but I also saw them at a -120 on a team total over 1.5 goals. While these odds might push some to favor the win, I think TFC has a better chance at a 2-2 draw than the Revs have at going under 2 goals.

Pick whichever you like; both plays round out week 17 nicely.

Philadelphia Union host Red Bull NY

RBNY +0.5 +105

The Philadelphia Union might have been the team in MLS most looking forward to this summer’s World Cup reset. They started 1-4-10 with a -12 goal differential and without a single home win, with 3 draws and 3 losses at home.

Red Bull NY, on the other hand, will be looking to get out hot after using the break to rest players on knocks, such as Emil Forsberg, Choupo-Moting, Marc Dos Santos, and Justin Che.

My model is showing Philadelphia has a 42% chance at winning, leaving a 58% chance at any other result. At +105, the double chance represents a 6.78% advantage on the sportsbook’s implied probability.

While I think RBNY have the advantage, this would be a huge variance from the norm, where Philadelphia has won 3 and drawn 1 of their last 4 meetings at Subaru Park. I will take the coverage on a draw and play the double chance instead of the RBNY +330 outright. I think RBNY is one of the best bets for MLS Week 17.

Austin FC hosts Seattle Sounders

Under 2.5 Goals +122

I hate betting MLS totals on the under, but sometimes they just make sense. This week, I think Austin FC and the Seattle Sounders go under 2.5 goals, which I officially add to my MLS Week 17 Best Bets list.

Looking at the home/away splits, Austin is only seeing a combined 2.14 goals per game at home, while Seattle has seen just 1.29 goals per game on the road. While Austin has seen 3 or more goals in each of their last 4 matches, three of those were away games while the other was an uncharacteristic match against Sporting KC. Seattle has seen 4 of their last 6 go under 2.5 goals, with the two outliers being a 5-1 loss to Portland and a 3-2 win over San Jose.

I think this match is cagey, while the sportsbooks actually have Seattle as huge road favorites. What, after their stinker at home against Portland, makes us think that is reality?

If the game really does favor the away side, this is likely a 1-0 or 0-0 game. I can’t see a shootout, so I will take the under on 2.5 goals.

Nashville SC hosts CF Montreal

Over 3.5 Goals +156

Nashville SC hosts CF Montreal in what I think could be one of the highest goal totals of Matchday 17. Nashville has already seen 43 total goals in just 15 matches, while Montreal has seen 53 goals during the same span. That equals roughly 3.2 goals per game, combined.

When we look deeper at the home/away numbers, Nashville has scored 24 and conceded 9 at home. Montreal has scored 12 and conceded 24 on the road. That means, in similar games with Nashville at home and Montreal on the road, there are roughly 4.6 goals per match.

I think Nashville will score multiple goals more than Montreal, so Nashville -1.5 is in play, BTTS is in play, and any goal total you like should be in play.

LA Galaxy hosts St. Louis City

Under 3.5 Goals -162

The LA Galaxy are home favorites over St. Louis City this week, but the only play I want is under 3.5 goals at -162.

The LA Galaxy has played 15 matches in 2026, with just 3 games going over 3.5 goals. St. Louis has seen that total or more in just 4 matches. Looking at the home/away numbers, St. Louis is averaging just .63 goals per game on the road while allowing 1.63. The Galaxy have put up just 1.25 goals per game at home, while allowing 1.38.

Every metric puts this game at under 3.5 goals, so if this one doesn’t hit, that is just a reflection of Major League Soccer’s volatility. Overall, even at low odds, I think this is deserving of being on my MLS Week 17 Best Bets list.

Did you know the Designated Pundits break down their MLS card each Thursday at 8:00 PM, LIVE on YouTube?

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