Brasileirão: Flamengo, Palmeiras lead title chase, Cruzeiro dream on | OneFootball

The Brasileirão 2025 already has a clear picture of its favorites. According to the latest probabilities from UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais), Flamengo leads the race for the title with a 46.3% chance, establishing itself as the main contender for the trophy. Close behind, Palmeiras (31.3%) and Cruzeiro (18.9%) still appear strong, keeping the expectation of a battle alive until the final rounds.

Flamengo in the lead

Leading the standings with 50 points, the Carioca Rubro-negro maintains consistency throughout the competition and, even amid challenges this season, shows offensive and defensive consistency. The team accounts for nearly half of the title chances, reflecting their good campaign and a squad filled with options.

Palmeiras stays strong

Abel Ferreira's team, accustomed to competing for trophies, appears as the main threat to Flamengo. With 31.3%, Palmeiras is four points behind but still has one game in hand. Thus, they need to keep the pressure on the leader and take advantage of direct confrontations to reduce the gap.

Cruzeiro establishes as the third force

Cruzeiro, with 18.9%, confirms their good phase since returning to the elite and positions themselves as a respectable contender in the race. Although one point behind Flamengo, the celestial team has played more games (23 compared to 22 for the Cariocas and 21 for Palmeiras). In any case, the Raposa shows they can surprise if their rivals stumble.

Mirassol and the “underdogs”

Among the surprises of the tournament, Mirassol has a 2.3% chance, a remarkable feat for a club still rising on the national scene. Meanwhile, Bahia (0.75%), Botafogo (0.43%), and São Paulo (0.14%) appear with residual chances but remain alive in the mathematics.

Almost null probabilities

The list is completed by Fluminense (0.007%), Bragantino (0.004%), Atlético-MG, Corinthians, and Ceará (all with 0.001%). These clubs, although with minimal possibilities, can directly influence the fight by facing the title contenders.

📊 Title Chances – Brasileirão 2025

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.