Can Bruno Fernandes really break the Premier League’s weirdest record? | OneFootball

The race for the most assists across a single Premier League season is weird and unpredictable, often influenced by factors outside the control of its competitors. It is also a record that has stood for more than 20 years, or since Thierry Henry notched his 20th assist of the 2002-03 season. Since then, only Kevin De Bruyne has matched Henry’s figure over 38 games, in 2019-20, but it has been threatened on an almost annual basis over the past two decades.

This year, the leading contender to break Henry and De Bruyne’s record is Bruno Fernandes, who has reached 16 assists with eight games of the season remaining, while surpassing David Beckham for the most from a Manchester United player in a single Premier League campaign. The captain is flying after returning to more advanced role under Michael Carrick, and the Portuguese’s form suggests Henry and De Bruyne’s assist record is within sight over the final weeks.

But be warned. Over the past few years, many players have been on the trajectory for the Premier League assist record, only to fall away as soon as they are tipped to challenge it. In fact, it has become fairly normal for one of the Premier League’s leading attackers to start the campaign by striking a rich vein of creative form. De Bruyne, in 2022, started the season with nine assists in nine matches. Mohamed Salah reached nine in 15 in 2021. The year before, Harry Kane was 10 in 11. Go back further, and Mesut Ozil was 15 in 17 in 2015, Cesc Fabregas 13 in 18 in 2014.

Last season, Bukayo Saka was 10 in 13 for Arsenal, but then did not record a single Premier League assist over the next two-thirds of the season. Salah would also fade, despite recording one of the finest individual seasons in Premier League history. At one stage, the Egyptian was 17 in 28 for runaway champions Liverpool, but managed just one assist over the final 10 games.

So, between them all, some of the best creative players in Premier League history have gone through points in the season racking up assists at a rate that made Henry’s record look precarious; appearing to be such an achievable target that it was at risk of being obliterated completely, in the same manner as Erling Haaland and the single-season scoring record.

But the race for the Premier League assist record is strange, and susceptible to volatile change. If the campaigns of those who have recorded the most Premier League assists each season were all lined up on the start line, like at the 800m finals at the Olympics, what you would see is a blur of astonishingly quick first laps followed by a series of collapses after the sound of the halfway bell. Almost every year, the pace is unsustainable.

Often, the challenges of football’s schedule have their impact, as matches pile up and fatigue or injuries contribute to a loss of form. De Bruyne and Salah, for instance, saw their fast starts broken up by long spells without recording an assist before and after the mid-season World Cup and Africa Cup of Nations respectively. In some cases, opposing teams took greater efforts to shut down particular threats, such as Kane’s partnership with Son Heung-min, whom the England captain assisted seven times in the first six games of the season.

In other examples, the plateaus can seem inexplicable. The 2015-16 season will forever be remembered in English football as the year Leicester City won the league but for Arsenal fans, it is the campaign they wasted a golden opportunity to reclaim the title. Their slump over the second half of the campaign was mirrored by Ozil’s dramatic flatlining, with just two assists recorded between the start of January and the end of April after reaching the new year on 15.

open image in gallery

Mesut Ozil finished the season on 19 assists, one short of Henry’s record (Getty)

Ozil, though, largely continued to create chances at a similar rate. The German finished short of the Premier League assist mark that year but still holds the record for most chances created in a single season, with 146. Perhaps the more significant drop-off that year came from striker Olivier Giroud, who went 15 matches in a row from January to May without scoring in the Premier League.

If there is an element of randomness at play, the seasons of the two holders of the assist record could be instructive. De Bruyne and Henry finished with 20 assists and PFA Player of the Year accolades in 2020 and 2003 respectively, while playing for the team that finished runner-up in the league. Both also had remarkable bursts towards the end of the season. For De Bruyne, his numbers recovered from a winter slump after the Premier League was suspended by Covid. Once the league returned, two months later, and with the title already won by Liverpool, De Bruyne finished the year with four assists in six games, the record equalled.

But that may bode well for Fernandes. Starting tonight against Bournemouth, United have just eight games of the season remaining, having had at least a week between most of their matches this campaign due to not being in Europe and exiting both domestic cup competitions at the first hurdle. They’re not going for the title. Champions League looks secure. Add in the release of playing under Carrick, or rather not playing under Amorim, and Fernandes may have the form and the freshness to continue his late-season spree in the manner of Henry and De Bruyne. And, if he does so, the clamour for PFA Player of the Year may also grow, in a season where leaders Arsenal lack an outstanding candidate.

open image in gallery

Eighteen of Henry’s 20 assists in 2002-03 also came from open play (Getty)

Henry’s 20-assist season is even more spectacular once you consider that the French forward also scored 24 goals, and was playing at a time where assist numbers were not fixated upon like they are now, a fascination sparked by the rise of FPL (Fantasy Premier League). For Henry, it was the sheer satisfaction of selflessly setting up a teammate that motivated his eight assists over the final four games of the season. Henry was also in a battle with Manchester United’s Ruud van Nistelrooy for the Premier League Golden Boot going into the final two games but continued to provide for his teammates when he could have gone for goal himself.