Catch 22 for Newcastle United and the Champions League | OneFootball

Newcastle United managed their first qualification for the Champions League back in 1997.

The 1996/97 Premier League season was the first time ever that not just the title winners would be in the top European competition.

The Premier League runners-up would also qualify for the Champions League group stage, if getting through the second qualifying round, that was achieved in dramatic (Ketsbaia) fashion with a very late goal away at Croatia Zagreb.

It would be another five Premier League seasons before Newcastle United managed it again.

Fourth place in the Premier League in the 2001/02 season meant entry to the then third round of qualifying to try and reach the Champions League group stage. Newcastle United achieving that in more comfortable fashion by defeating Zeljeznicar 5-0 on aggregate.

Despite finishing one place higher in the 2002/03 Premier League season, third place only bought you a spot in the third qualifying round once again. This time it was the stuff of nightmares, a 1-0 away win against Partizan Belgrade in the first leg looked to have paved the way for smooth progress to the Champions League group stage. However, back at St James’ Park we watched on as United managed to lose 1-0 and with no goals in extra time, it came down to penalties. Newcastle United missing four of the seven penalties they ended up taking and having to settle for a place in the UEFA Cup.

A couple of decades later and things had moved on for English clubs and the Champions League, all of the top four in the Premier League would automatically qualify for the group stage. In his first full season, Eddie Howe managed to work some unbelievable magic, as well as a first Cup Final in 24 years for Newcastle United, the 2022/23 season also saw a fourth place finish and a place in the Champions League group stage.

A combination of the extra demands of Champions League football and a horrendous injury blighted season (and Tonali’s suspension), made it an all but impossible task to repeat qualification for the top European competition. Eddie Howe and his players finishing eight points off top four in the Premier League.

Newcastle United fans didn’t have to wait long though. The 2024/25 season ended up with Newcastle United as one of the Premier League top five qualifying for what is now the Swiss League stage of the Champions League.

Catch 22 for Newcastle United and the Champions League

So this is where we are now.

Newcastle United competing in the Champions League this 2025/26 season.

Whilst at the same time trying to qualify from the Premier League a third time in four years, to compete in the 2026/27 Champions League.

Which is where it becomes Catch 22 for NUFC.

Things have moved on now with Champions League qualification.

Back in 1996/97 only the title winners of the Premier League automatically qualified for the Champions League competition proper. Then in 2001/02 and 2002/23 that had increased to the top two automatically qualifying.

Twenty years later that was four Premier League automatic qualifiers in 2022/23, then 2024/25 expanded to five automatic qualifying from the Premier League due to the extra fifth spot generated due to the expanded competition and the success of English clubs in European competitions that season.

However, whilst the number of Champions League places available to Premier League clubs has risen significantly, the stakes are far higher for the likes of Newcastle United, Aston Villa and others.

Once upon a time, qualifying for the Champions League was simply a massive bonus, if it proved to be a one-off then so what.

Now however in the present day with ‘Financial Fair Play’ constraints, via PSR in the Premier League and a slightly different set of limiting spending measures (SCR – Squad Cost Ratio) if you want to play in UEFA competitions, the only possible way for clubs such as Aston Villa and Newcastle United to be able to close the financial chasm that exists between themselves and the established super powerful half dozen, is by qualifying for the Champions League year after year after year.

Set up to fail

When it comes to the Champions League though, Newcastle United and Aston Villa are set up to fail, when it comes to establishing themselves as regular participants.

To compete in both the Champions League and the Premier League (and domestic cup competitions) is incredibly difficult for Newcastle United (or Villa, or anybody else who isn’t one of the all powerful six).

You have to massively up your game when it comes to spending money and no guarantee it will work.

Newcastle United pushed the boat out to try and compete on all fronts in the 2023/24 season but ended up with a nightmare situation of missing out on repeating their Champions League qualification via the Premier League AND then having to sell their two best young prospects, Elliot Anderson and Yankuba Minteh, to avoid breaking three year PSR spending rules.

Aston Villa pushed the boat out even more last season. Competing on both fronts they did well in both competitions, reaching the last eight of the Champions League and top six of the Premier League. Yet those glorious failures brought severe financial repercussions, they weren’t able to have any net spend on signings this summer, plus had to hand back their three expensive and ambitious loan signings (Rashford, Disasi and Asensio) as they couldn’t afford to make any of them permanent, plus seriously cut their wage bill. Villa managed to just about pull themselves back with PSR limits but got in trouble with UEFA and what in many ways are their even more constraining financial traps.

Newcastle United are currently trying to balance both playing in the Champions League and competing in the Premier League and…it could be going better.

Meanwhile, after a poor start to this season which at least in large part is a hangover from dealing with issues of trying to compete in Premier League and Champions League last season, Aston Villa are now looking like contenders once again to make next season’s Champions League…

It is Catch 22 in so many ways for Newcastle United and other clubs such as Aston Villa

If you are competing in the Champions League, it is proving all but impossible to then also finish high enough up in the Premier League that same season, to qualify for Champions League the next season.

To have any chance of competing in the Champions League and Premier League you have to take huge risks financially on transfer fees and wages, then if you ‘fail’ on the pitch that season, even by small margins, you have to seriously scale back your finances.

To tap into the kind of commercial revenues that are needed to compete regularly in the Champions League on a long-term basis, you are only able to, by competing in the Champions League year after year after year…

To attract and keep the players you need to compete in both Champions League and the Premier League, you need to compete in the Champions League every season.

To be able to afford to buy and keep those players, you need to be in the Champions League every year.

Vicious circle

It is one big vicious circle, as outlined above, when it comes to Newcastle United and the other clubs outside the entitled half dozen. In terms of closing the financial chasm and/or qualifying year after year for the Champions League, which in reality are exactly the same thing.

Premier League clubs such as Newcastle United and Villa aren’t allowed to finance the bridging years that could move them onto a proper footing, whereby their revenues would be in the same kind of ballpark as at least some of those at the lower rich end of those six PL clubs who have built up their powerbases over so many years, by fair means and not so fair…

The big difference between Newcastle United and say Arsenal, Chelsea or Man U, is that they can be run so poorly as clubs/teams, they can dip in and out of the Champions League, or even not qualify for years (Man U have qualified only once in the last four seasons, before fluking it through the Europa League it has been one qualification in five seasons for Spurs, Chelsea missed two years before getting in this latest time, whilst Arsenal spent six years in a row outside of the Champions League before returning to it when qualifying via the 2022/23 Premier League season). Yet because they are set up to be so financially dominant, even without Champions League qualification, they can afford to get away with it.

It is a bit like a penalty shootout.

Newcastle United and Villa having to score every penalty, qualify for the Champions League season after season.

Whilst for say Man U or Chelsea, they can keep missing their penalties, before then finally scoring one, then seeing only benefits from competing in the Champions League, not the huge risks that present themselves to the likes of Villa and Newcastle United.