Champions League: new format boosts Italian sides’ last 16 hopes | OneFootball

The evolution of the Champions League towards an extra-large format, desired by UEFA and FIFA in parallel with the expansion of the World Cup, has led the two main football events to numbers never reached before: 36 teams in the most important European cup and 48 selections in the world competition.

Champions League, the new "parachute" formula favors the Italians: why Inter, Napoli, and others are close to the round of 16

An expansion that, as Andrea Cocchi observes, responds mainly to economic and business needs.

What stands out is especially the disproportion between the number of matches in the League Phase and the reduced final selection: only 12 teams are eliminated in the Champions League and 16 in the World Cup. The result is a system that, in fact, gives ample room for maneuver to less consistent clubs, allowing them to at least access the playoffs, now renamed "round of 16" to confer greater prestige to the competition.

Inter and Napoli defeated, but with one foot in the knockout phase: the data

Despite recent setbacks, the path of the Italians in the new single phase is far from compromised. The last round offered two negative results: Inter suffered their second consecutive defeat, while Napoli recorded their third loss in the first six matches. Yet, the overall standings still smile.

Inter is mathematically certain of the playoffs and retains margins to finish among the top eight, a position that guarantees direct entry to the round of 16.

Napoli, although in 23rd place in the overall standings, retains an 80% chance of reaching the round of 16, a significant figure for a team often described as struggling in European fields.

The qualification probabilities: who is already in and who is at risk

The new formula rewards the consistency of top clubs, which indeed dominate the percentages of access to the round of 16:

Arsenal already qualified

Bayern Munich at 99%

Manchester City at 90%

Paris Saint-Germain at 82%

Real Madrid at 62%, despite internal criticisms

Additionally, Liverpool, Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Atalanta, Inter, Chelsea, Tottenham, Newcastle, Borussia Dortmund, and Sporting Lisbon are all 100% certain of at least a spot in the round of 16.

Very close to qualification are also Juventus, Marseille, and Bayer Leverkusen, all around 98% probability.

The paradox of the new Champions: qualifying is easy, surviving is not

The current mechanism offers an evident "parachute": it is difficult to be excluded from the second phase. However, once the playoffs are reached, the scenario changes radically.

This is confirmed by the precedent of the inaugural season with the new formula: "The three Italian teams that reached the playoffs – Atalanta, Juventus, and Milan – were all eliminated at the first hurdle."

The League Phase provides time and space to remedy mistakes; from the direct clashes onwards, however, the competition becomes severe and selective again.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.