🏆 Champions League: one Italian side at risk 😰 And Inter... | OneFootball

The Champions League reaches its halfway point. After the first four matches, tonight marks the start of the second part of the single group stage. So far, the Italian teams have collected less than expected, with the exception of Inter. For the Nerazzurri, who have a perfect score, the tough part starts now. In fact, the next four matches will see Chivu’s team face, in order, Atlético Madrid, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Borussia Dortmund: a real tour de force.

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But how many points are needed to qualify? According to Football Meets Data, you need to reach 10 points to stay in the playoffs (98.6% probability), but even 9 points might be enough (73.2%).

As for direct qualification, current projections say you’d need 18 points to be sure of reaching the round of 16 (99.6%). The probability remains high even with 17 points (95.3%), while it drops to 50% with 16 points—the same amount Aston Villa needed last year to avoid the playoffs.

📊 Who goes to the round of 16?

So, what are the chances for the Italian teams? Opta has made a prediction and drawn up its final ranking. In first place, with 20.09 expected points, is Arsenal. Behind them are Bayern (19.62) and City (18.20), while in fourth place we find Inter (16.86). Liverpool, PSG, Real, and Barcelona would also go directly to the round of 16.

SOURCE: OPTA

For Juve, Napoli, and Atalanta, the playoff route would open up. With 12.27 expected points, the Dea would finish 15th, three places ahead of the Italian champions (10.45). The Bianconeri are just barely saved, finishing in 22nd place, with only 9.41 expected points.

SOURCE: OPTA

Just to complete the picture, looking ahead to May, Arsenal has the best chance of lifting the trophy (23%). Inter has just 3.15%. The other three Italian teams, on the other hand, have virtually zero hope: 0.19% for Atalanta, 0.32% for Napoli, 0.07% for Juve.

The road to Budapest, in short, is complicated. It’s up to the pitch to overturn the predictions.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.

📸 ISABELLA BONOTTO - AFP or licensors