Corinthians’ relegation risk halves after win over Atlético-MG, says UFMG

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Central do Timão

·22 ottobre 2025

Corinthians’ relegation risk halves after win over Atlético-MG, says UFMG

By Daniel Keppler / Central do Timão Editorial Team

Corinthians breathed a little easier after defeating Atlético-MG 1-0 at the Neo Química Arena in a match held on Saturday, the 18th, for the 29th round of the Brazilian Championship. With the result, the chances of relegation to Série B in 2026 have decreased again, according to updated calculations from the Mathematics Department of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).

According to the survey, the Alvinegro now has a 5.3% probability of relegation at the end of the Brasileirão, decreasing from the previous scenario (when, after the defeat to Santos, the risk had risen to 10.9%). With this, the team became the ninth most threatened in the competition, behind Sport, Fortaleza, Juventude, Vitória, Santos, Atlético, Ceará, and Internacional.

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Photo: Rodrigo Coca/Ag. Corinthians

In addition to the relief in the risk of relegation, Timão also saw its chances of competing in a continental tournament in 2026 increase. According to UFMG, Corinthians now has a 53.6% chance of participating in the next season's Copa Sudamericana — a significant increase from the previous rate of 35.5%. The probability of competing in the Copa Libertadores remains remote, rising from 1.1% to 1.6%.

With the victory over Atlético-MG, Corinthians reached 36 points in the Brasileirão, momentarily taking the 11th position in the table. The team has nine wins, nine draws, and eleven losses, along with 31 goals scored and 35 conceded. Timão is now ten points away from the G6 and has a five-point advantage over the Z4.

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