England f***ed by the World Cup schedule even if they beat Messi’s Argentina… | OneFootball

England could go into the World Cup final at a disadvantage, even if they manage to get past Argentina in the semi-finals…

The Three Lions face Argentina on Wednesday evening seeking to beat the holders and reach their first World Cup final in 60 years.

If England win in Atlanta, they would face France or Spain on Sunday night.

But recent history suggests England would go to New Jersey on the back foot even before you consider that they would be underdogs against either possible opponent.

With France and Spain contesting their semi-final on Tuesday, 24 hours before England face Argentina, whoever wins would have the advantage of an extra day’s rest.

Which previous tournaments suggests could be a factor.

The last three winners of the World Cup, and four of the last five, have come from the semi-final that was played first.

Only in the 2010 tournament did the winner of the second semi-final triumph in the final. But a case could be made that Spain were heavy favourites and were pushed all the way by Netherlands.

2022, Qatar

December 13: Argentina 3-0 Croatia December 14: France 2-0 Morocco Final: Argentina 3-3 France – Argentina win on penalties

2018, Russia

July 10: France 1-0 Belgium July 11: Croatia 2-1 England AET Final, July 18: France 4-2 Croatia

2014, Brazil

July 8: Brazil 1-7 Germany July 9: Netherlands 0-0 Argentina – Argentina won on penalties Final, July 13: Germany 1-0 Argentina AET

2010, South Africa

July 6: Uruguay 2-3 Netherlands July 7: Germany 0-1 Spain Final, July 11: Netherlands 0-1 Spain AET

2006, Germany

July 4: Germany 0-2 Italy AET July 5: Portugal 0-1 France Final, July 9: Italy 1-1 France – Italy won on penalties

If you go further back, it is a different story, with the five winners between 1986 and 2002 coming from the second semi-final.

So it’s all b*llocks then?

We fear not. The most recent evidence in this case is the more compelling evidence, given the evolution of the game and the progressions in sports science.

Especially for England, it could be more relevant in the 2026 tournament given the slog it has been just to get to the semi-finals.

A finals across three countries makes travel inevitable – but England have been more affected than any other nation.

Data from the BBC says England have travelled more than 14,000 miles to reach the final four, having made return journeys from their base in Kansas City to play in Dallas, Boston, New Jersey, Atalanta, Mexico City and Miami.

Argentina have travelled around 6,000 miles less, while France will have travelled only 1955 miles before a round-trip of 3,000 miles for their semi-final in Dallas against Spain.

Granted, England are hardly flying budget airlines across north America, but the travel was always expected to be a factor, and the Three Lions have done more of it than any other nation.

In fact, by the time they returned from their quarter-final in Miami, they had already travelled further than any other nation at any previous World Cup finals.

Worryingly for England, the trend of the first semi-final winner being victorious in the final extends beyond the World Cup.

At the European Championships, the last four tournaments have been won by teams who played their semi-final first: Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Spain again.

England reached the last two Euros finals but lost on both occasions.

So, right now, standing between England and World Cup glory is Messi’s Argentina for whom the internet reckons the tournament is rigged; the European champions or the favourites featuring Mr World Cup; and the schedule which looks more unbeatable than any of their opponents.