Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 1 Wolves 0

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The Mag

·14 settembre 2025

Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 1 Wolves 0

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

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Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the five Premier League matches 3pm kick-off matches from Saturday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Bournemouth 1.44 v Brighton 0.62 (2-1)

Crystal Palace 1.76 v Sunderland 0.35 (0-0)

Everton 1.89 v Villa 0.35 (0-0)

Fulham 1.14 v Leeds 0.83 (1-0)

Newcastle United 1.19 v Wolves 0.38 (0-0)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

Those Expected Goals stats giving us a better idea of how these matches really went, going beyond just the final scoreline.

Two things are instantly clear.

The three teams that won (Bournemouth, Fulham, Newcastle United), all had a clear advantage in the Expected Goals stats as well.

Whilst in the other two matches, we see that as well as all the other underlying stats supporting this as well, both Sunderland and Villa were incredibly lucky to get an undeserved point at Palace and Everton respectively.

Both Everton and Palace had an expected goals stat more than five times higher than their opponent.

When it came to how many chances created and of what quality, Newcastle United had an expected goals stat more than three times higher than Wolves.

Indeed, no surprise that Nick Pope and his defence already have three clean sheets in four games. NUFC restricted Wolves to very few clear chances, in fact none at all in the second half. This is summed up by a very low 0.38 Expected Goals stat for Wolves, of the ten clubs that kicked off at 3pm on Saturday, only Sunderland and Villa had an even lower stat, both of theirs was only 0.35.

Newcastle 1 Wolves 0 – Saturday 13 September 2025 3pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Woltemade 29

Wolves:

Possession was Newcastle 57% Wolves 43%

Total shots were Newcastle 16 Wolves 8

Shots on target were Newcastle 4 Wolves 3

Corners were Newcastle 10 Wolves 4

Touches in the box Newcastle 29 Wolves 23

Newcastle team v Wolves:

Pope, Trippier, Schar, Burn, Livramento, Tonali, Bruno, Joelinton (Willock 65), Barnes (Elanga 80), Woltemade (Osula 65), Murphy (Botman 95)