Five key reasons to believe Ruben Amorim is finally turning Manchester United around | OneFootball

Manchester United have moved up to fifth in the Premier League table after their Boxing Day victory over Newcastle United, with Champions League qualification looking ever more realistic as we approach the halfway point of the 2025-26 Premier League campaign.

That’s quite the improvement for a team that finished in the lower reaches of the last term, considerably closer to the relegation zone than the European spots.

Whisper it, but are they actually looking like a serious team once again? Here are five reasons to believe Ruben Amorim has Manchester United moving in the right direction.

5. Newcastle United

It’s almost exactly a year since Manchester United last played host to Eddie Howe’s Magpies.

Talisman Bruno Fernandes was also unavailable for that game, and a pairing of Casemiro and Christian Eriksen looked utterly incapable of matching Newcastle’s industrious midfield.

It was like watching some walking football OAPs up against that team down Powerleague that always takes it way too seriously.

The scoreline was only 0-2, but there was a chasm between the two teams that night, later underlined by a 6-1 aggregate league double and a gap of 10 places and 22 points come the final table.

Fast forward 12 months and a makeshift Manchester United XI ground out a hard-fought 1-0 victory in this fixture. The win takes them fifth, six places and six points above Newcastle. Tides turning.

4. Casemiro

“Leave the football before the football leaves you,” Jamie Carragher told Casemiro at the end of the 2023-24 campaign.

It was one of the most withering putdowns a pundit has ever delivered, but it’s hard to argue it didn’t bear fruit as Manchester United ambled to an unthinkable 15th-place finish last term, having consistently been overawed in midfield battles.

The veteran Brazilian has offered a decent riposte this season. He struggles to play 90 minutes, and only one game a week undoubtedly helps, but he’s been among Manchester United’s best and most important players.

The difference when Casemiro is on the pitch and not is night and day. Amorim deserves credit for turning around the fortunes of a player who looked absolutely cooked not too long ago. He’s even gearing up for a key role in Carlo Ancelotti’s Selecao midfield in the summer.

3. ‘Uncle Jeff’s Coefficient’

The Newcastle result points to a wider trend – results from the corresponding matches last season.

Manchester United have picked up nine more points from the equivalent matches from 2024-25, with thanks to the excellent UncleJeffsCoefficient.com for breaking down the long-running talking point from the Totally Football Show podcast.

Only Manchester City and Sunderland have shown greater improvement if you transpose this season’s results onto last. Liverpool and Newcastle, meanwhile, have seen a massive -10 and -12 points drop-off respectively.

It was admittedly a very low bar to start with. Finishing 15th again was surely out of the question. But Tottenham (zero points improvement from last season’s 17th placing) have shown that even the lowest of low bars can be a tricky hurdle.

2. Underlying data

Perhaps the greatest signifier of Manchester United’s improvement is the underlying ‘expected goals’ data.

Per the ever-reliable goldmine of stats FBref, only title chasers Manchester City and Arsenal have a greater xG differential than Amorim’s Red Devils this season. United have posted a +8.5xG difference.

Third-place Aston Villa, for what it’s worth, have a negative xG differential of -4-1, worse than the likes of Leeds, Fulham and Everton. A reminder that while these numbers can be useful, they’re worth taking with a pinch of salt.

Manchester United’s +32.7 xG is the highest in the entire division, though their xGA – expected goals against – is admittedly pretty sketchy, with only Wolves, West Ham and Burnley posting worse defensive numbers.

Not boring, at least.

We won’t go overboard with the praise of summer signing Senne Lammens.

The victory over Newcastle was only the second clean sheet he’s kept in 12 Premier League appearances. Having shipped 17 goals, his record isn’t exactly spectacular.

But as the above xG stats underline, he’s not especially well protected by his defence. He’s among the busier goalkeepers in the division.

The young Belgian has been far from faultless, but he’s also been largely competent, avoiding howlers and (mostly) making the saves you’d expect him to. He’s also been responsible for some big saves in the points won against Newcastle and Bournemouth.

Manchester United were crying out for that last season. The Andre Onana show is over. It took some time, but Amorim eventually identified and rectified the club’s #1 most glaring issue from last season.